The global phone market had a rough start to 2026. How rough depends entirely on which research firm you believe. Q1 2026 winner flips between Apple and Samsung as soon as you switch between Counterpoint Research and Omdia.

Counterpoint Research says shipments dropped 6% year-on-year, while Omdia says they grew 1%. Both published their Q1 2026 numbers this week, and neither can be right.

Counterpoint Research

Apple won, according to Counterpoint. First time the company has led the global market in Q1. Twenty-one percent share. Five percent growth year-on-year while the broader market contracted.

Samsung, meanwhile, slipped. Six percent YoY decline; twenty percent share. The Galaxy S26 series launched late, and that delay cost the company volume it couldn’t easily recover within the quarter.

Omdia

Omdia tells a different story: market up 1%. Samsung is on top with 22% share, while Apple is in second at 20%. Galaxy S26 pre-orders were the fuel. Up more than 10% compared to where Galaxy S25 pre-orders sat at the same stage last year.

Here’s what makes this genuinely uncomfortable

These two firms are not measuring radically different things. Both are tracking global smartphone shipments in Q1 2026; both have access to supply chain data, carrier sell-through figures, and OEM disclosures.

One sees a market in decline with Apple leading, while the other sees modest growth with Samsung ahead. Whoever actually won Q1, the fight for Q2 is already underway, and the memory market doesn’t care who’s ahead on points.

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