Though the 2026 NFL Draft took place just two months ago, NFL teams and fans are already turning their attention to college football’s top prospects for 2027. Among the most closely watched positions is quarterback, a group many expect to headline the next draft class. However, similar expectations surrounded the 2026 quarterback class, and history may be repeating itself.

According to reports, Texas quarterback Arch Manning may choose not to declare for the 2027 NFL Draft. In fact, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian isn’t convinced that entering the draft is a foregone conclusion. In the NIL era, draft decisions are no longer as predictable as they once were. The ability to earn significant income in college has reduced the urgency for players to leave school as early as possible.

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“We haven’t had the discussion, but I would tell you I would not be surprised (if he returned),” Sarkisian said on Up and Adams.

“I think Arch really loves college football, I really do. I think he loves the University of Texas. He does pretty good through NIL. He’s got some pretty good endorsements going right now, which is a credit to him, and obviously, the lineage of the last name and the brand of Texas, all those things coming together.”

New era creating new paths

Sarkisian has been outspoken about both the benefits and drawbacks of NIL. One consequence NFL scouts have noted is that more players are willing to be patient before declaring for the draft. While delaying a professional career can still backfire, the financial risks are not as significant as they once were.

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Today’s student-athletes can earn money through private NIL agreements as well as revenue-sharing opportunities. The financial landscape has changed so dramatically that some have called for salary caps or NIL limits in college athletics. However, implementing such measures would likely require a collective bargaining agreement.

Sarkisian also acknowledged that a return to Texas is far from certain for Manning.

“But again on the same token, I wouldn’t be surprised if he declares and decides to go to the draft. I think some of that is dependent on how we play as a team this fall, how he plays individually,” he said.

There is still plenty of football left to be played this season. Manning may ultimately have multiple appealing options when it comes to his future. He could declare for the 2027 NFL Draft and potentially become the No. 1 overall pick. Or, he could take advantage of another year of eligibility and continue capitalizing on NIL opportunities at Texas.