The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is fast approaching, and the bets are already pouring in as to what it would mean for the Bitcoin and crypto industry. The last FOMC meeting took place in September, when the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates down to 4-4.25% after months of no rate cuts. With this setting the tone, the expectations that another rate cut could be on the way are getting louder, with the FedWatch Tool showing a high percentage.
Market Expects Another Rate Cut To 3.75-4%
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, October 29, 2025, and there is already a major clamor around what the Fed is planning on doing. The current market headwinds point to a favorable outcome for risk assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with expected rate cuts.
Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing that the probability of a rate cut has risen to 98.3% as of the time of this writing. This leaves only a 1.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will actually leave rates at their current levels, and there is zero chance that there will be a rate hike.
A reduction in the rate cuts is good for businesses all around, as lower interest rates mean better loan terms and increased spending and borrowing. Thus, it will increase the participation in the markets, from consumer goods to the stock market, and then make its way into newer markets such as Bitcoin and crypto.
Expectations For Bitcoin And Crypto Are Getting Higher
A rate cut by the Federal Reserve aligns with the more pro-crypto stance that the United States has been moving in since President Donald Trump was elected. Last week, the president pardoned the Founder and former CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, after he previously pled guilty to money laundering violations back in 2024. Zhao has since served a 4-month stint before the pardon from Trump came.
With the US embracing Bitcoin and crypto again, a rate cut will only further the ascent, allowing more investors to get into the market as liquidity frees up. The initial announcement has been known to trigger a rapid increase in the market. But as the news settles, the crypto market is expected to continue to rise in response.
However, nothing is certain until the FOMC meeting is complete and the announcement is made. For the Bitcoin and crypto market to remain bullish, inflation will also have to be reduced, as an increase could trigger more conservative stances from investors.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly 446 million dollars in net inflows for the week, reversing the prior soft patch and hinting that institutions still buy the dips. Over the same stretch, spot Ether products saw about 244 million dollars in outflows, a notable contrast that kept the market honest after a frantic first half of October.
Daily prints show how quickly sentiment can turn. After four straight sessions of redemptions, Bitcoin funds swung to a single-day net inflow near 477 million dollars as prices steadied, a flip that broke the losing streak and re-anchored flows.
What the divergence actually signals
The split is not just about winners and laggards. Bitcoin’s rebound suggests allocators continue to treat it as the cleanest expression of crypto beta, especially when macro is noisy and liquidity is patchy. Ether’s outflows, meanwhile, reflect a different set of questions that investors still need answered, from staking mechanics inside fund structures to the timing and scope of future product features. The weekly etf total underscores that rotation within crypto is active rather than passive right now.
Context helps. Earlier in October, a monster print north of one billion dollars flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in a single session as price tagged fresh highs, a reminder that headline inflows often cluster near emotionally charged levels. That history makes last week’s steadier, mid-range rebound feel more durable, not less.
Price drivers to watch next
Flows do not move in a straight line. The week’s split sits against a backdrop of macro cross-currents, including intermittent risk-off wobbles and questions about policy data timeliness. Short squeezes and funding resets can add noise. Even so, the path of least resistance remains tied to whether Bitcoin ETFs keep printing green on more days than not, especially if breadth widens beyond a handful of big issuers. Recent records around 125,000 were pinned on ETF demand, so subsequent rallies will likely need the same sponsorship.
Ether’s challenge is more nuanced. Capital wants clarity on product design and the roadmap for yield features. Until those mechanics are settled, Ether funds may trade more like satellite positions in multi-asset portfolios, making them sensitive to weekly rebalancing. That does not preclude sharp risk-on weeks. It simply means the hurdle for sticky inflows is higher.
The bottom line
The week delivered a clean message. Bitcoin ETFs attracted fresh capital while Ether funds leaked. The daily swing back to inflows suggests the buyer is still there, even if conviction arrives in bursts. If the next few prints confirm breadth across issuers and steadier intake, price can follow. If not, expect more chop around well-watched levels while investors wait for the next catalyst.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly changed last week in ETF flows? Bitcoin ETFs added about 446 million dollars for the week that ended 24 October, while Ether funds lost about 244 million dollars, marking a clear divergence between the two largest crypto assets.
Did one big day drive the Bitcoin number? A single day near 21 October saw roughly 477 million dollars in net inflows, which helped flip the weekly tally back to positive after a red streak.
Are large daily inflows reliable signals for price? Huge prints can coincide with local peaks, as seen earlier in October, so traders often look for persistence across multiple sessions rather than one-off spikes.
What are analysts saying publicly? Nate Geraci highlighted multi-billion weekly intake for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Other analysts pointed to advisors dominating known Ether ETF holders, which can magnify tactical shifts.
Glossary of long key terms
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) A regulated fund that tracks an asset and trades on stock exchanges, allowing investors to gain exposure without holding the underlying coins.
Net inflows and outflows The difference between new money entering a fund and money leaving it over a set period. Positive net inflows imply demand, while outflows imply the opposite.
Advisor-dominated holder base A fund ownership profile where registered investment advisors represent a large share of known holders, which can increase sensitivity to model-driven rebalancing.
Product breadth across issuers A sign of healthier demand where multiple funds, not just one or two, attract consistent inflows, reducing reliance on a single vehicle for price support.
Metaplanet, widely known as “Japan’s MicroStrategy”, has taken a major step forward in its long-term strategy by launching a 75 billion JPY share repurchase program.
This comes after the company faced a setback with a decline in its mNAV, and aims to make better use of capital and boost returns for shareholders.
Metaplanet has established a share repurchase program to enhance capital efficiency and maximize BTC Yield. The Board also approved a credit facility to enable flexible execution as part of the company’s capital allocation strategy. https://t.co/zucPBrIqOQ
In its latest disclosure, Metaplanet noted that recent market volatility and a decline in its mNAV have led to its stock being undervalued.
The mNAV compares the company’s enterprise value to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. When it falls below 1.0x, the company’s shares are seen as trading below their fair value based on BTC reserves.
To address this, Metaplanet launched a capital management plan designed to maximize BTC yield and improve capital efficiency.
Metaplanet’s stock is currently trading at 499 JPY, up 2.5% over the past day and roughly 18% over the last five days. Its mNAV has also recovered to 1.03 as of the time of writing.
The buyback program will cover up to 150 million common shares, representing about 13.13% of its total outstanding shares, excluding treasury shares. It will run from October 29, 2025, to October 28, 2026 and buybacks will be conducted through purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under a discretionary trading agreement.
$500M Credit Line Announced
In order to give the company more flexibility in carrying out the repurchase program, the board has also approved a credit facility with a borrowing limit of up to USD 500 million (around JPY 76.4 billion).
This allows the company to secure funds using its Bitcoin holdings as collateral whenever needed. The funds raised could be used for additional Bitcoin purchases, investments in its Bitcoin Income business, or share buybacks.
The credit line also plays a major role in the Company’s financial strategy and is expected to serve as bridge financing ahead of its planned issuance of preference shares.
Metaplanet’s Capital Allocation Policy
Metaplanet has also created a new Capital Allocation Policy designed to maximize sustainable value creation. It will be guided by three fundamental principles.
Metaplanet plans to actively utilize preferred shares, to strengthen BTC yield and enhance long-term shareholder value. It will avoid new issuances when mNAV is below 1.0x, and pursue them only when mNAV exceeds 1.0x and valuations and strategic conditions clearly support long-term shareholder value.
And if mNAV falls below 1.0x, the Company will actively consider share buybacks to enhance BTC yield and shareholder value.
It also noted that the funding sources for share repurchases may include cash reserves, funds raised from preferred share issuances, credit facilities, or income generated by its Bitcoin-related business operations.
Since April 2025, the company has expanded its Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, now holding 30,823 BTC, making it the fourth-largest public Bitcoin holder globally and the largest in Asia.
The company is also committed to its long-term goal of acquiring 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027.
Despite what appears to have been a setback, Metaplanet continues to show strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to trade with upward momentum, recently reclaiming levels above $113,000 as market sentiment leans cautiously optimistic. The market has followed suit, with speculation of whether this momentum can be sustained amid tightening liquidity and rising volatility. However, several technical indicators now suggest a potential cool-off phase. This raises concerns of a short-term correction below the $110,000 support zone.
Is BTC Price Heading for a Pullback?
After rebounding sharply from lows near $107,800 earlier this week, Bitcoin has steadily reclaimed lost ground, climbing back above the $113,000 mark. This recovery reflects renewed buying pressure around key demand zones, supported by improving market liquidity and increased spot trading activity. However, BTC now faces a crucial test near the $114,500–$115,000 resistance area, where profit-taking has historically intensified. Momentum indicators hint at potential exhaustion, suggesting that if Bitcoin fails to secure a daily close above this range, a corrective drop toward $110,000—or even lower—could soon follow.
Another major reason to be bearish on Bitcoin is the recently formed CME gap with the lower range close to $110,000.
Bitcoin’s rebound from the $107,800 lows has lifted prices toward $114,600, yet the move now encounters a key CME gap between $110,700 and $113,500, as highlighted on the chart. This unfilled gap has become a focal point for traders, as Bitcoin often revisits these levels before establishing a sustained trend. The Ichimoku Cloud currently acts as dynamic resistance, with the upper boundary near $115,700 aligning with the gap’s top.
Historically, BTC has tended to “fill” such CME gaps before reversing direction, suggesting a possible short-term rejection if momentum weakens. Meanwhile, the RSI around 51 signals a neutral bias, indicating potential consolidation before the next major move.
Wrapping it Up
The recent rebound in Bitcoin (BTC) price underscores improving short-term sentiment, but the broader market remains cautious amid low volatility and mixed macro cues. A decisive move beyond the $115,700 cloud resistance could reignite bullish momentum across major altcoins, fueling renewed inflows into risk assets. However, failure to clear this zone may keep BTC range-bound, with traders eyeing $110,000 as a key defensive level. With upcoming macro events and ETF flows influencing liquidity, Bitcoin’s next move could set the tone for the entire crypto market heading into November.
Open interest climbing from $25 billion to nearly $30 billion reflects fresh leverage entering the market — a double-edged sword that could amplify upside momentum above $112,000 but heighten liquidation risks below $110,000, an analyst noted.
Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has surged back into the neutral zone after the recovery rally in the cryptocurrency’s price.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Now Has A Value Of 51
The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that measures the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The metric uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: trading volume, market cap dominance, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends.
The index uses a numerical scale running from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values above 53 correspond to greed among the investors, while those below 47 to fear. The region between the two cutoffs naturally corresponds to a net neutral mentality.
Now, here is how the current Bitcoin market sentiment is like, according to the Fear & Greed Index:
As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 51, which suggests the trader sentiment is almost exactly in the balance right now. This is a notable change in market mood compared to just a few days ago.
As displayed in the chart, the Fear & Greed Index was inside the fear zone during the past few days. The despair among the traders was a result of the bearish price action that BTC had recently faced.
At one point, the indicator even fell to a low of 22, reflecting a state of “extreme fear.” This zone, which occurs below 25, corresponds to investors being the most bearish toward the market. There is a similar region for the greed side as well, called the “extreme greed,” situated above 75.
Historically, the extreme sentiments have been quite significant for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as they are where major tops and bottoms have tended to form. The relationship has been an inverse one, however, meaning extreme fear is where bottoms form, while extreme greed facilitates tops.
Since the extreme fear low earlier in the month, BTC has been on the way up, a potential indication that the contrarian signal of the sentiment may once again be in action.
The cryptocurrency has extended its recovery in a sharp manner during the last couple of days, which may be a potential reason why the Fear & Greed Index has surged back to the neutral territory now.
Though, for now, Bitcoin traders are still undecided on whether bullish action will follow next. It now remains to be seen whether they will embrace greed, or continue to be hesitant about the recovery.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $114,900, up 3.6% over the last seven days.
Bitcoin price surged to $115,000 on Monday, rising more than 1% in 24 hours, as optimism over easing U.S.–China trade tensions and renewed investor appetite for risk assets lifted global markets.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, Bitcoin price may “never fall below $100,000 again” if this week’s macro tailwinds continue.
In a note to clients, Kendrick said that improving trade relations between Washington and Beijing have flipped last week’s market fear into “hope.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s weekend statement that restrictions on China’s rare earth exports could be postponed for a year, combined with reports that Beijing plans to buy large quantities of U.S. soybeans, sparked a relief rally across equities, commodities, and crypto.
China, U.S trade deals and FOMC rate cuts
The agreement, expected to be finalized after the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in South Korea, has renewed risk appetite and pushed the bitcoin-to-gold ratio back above pre-October 10 levels — the date when 100% tariff threats sent markets tumbling.
Kendrick pointed to fresh inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs as another key signal of strength. Over $2 billion exited U.S. gold ETFs late last week, and if even half of that re-enters bitcoin funds, he said, it would mark a major vote of confidence.
The analyst also highlighted macro tailwinds, including expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting — a move widely seen as bullish for bitcoin.
Meanwhile, investors are watching a packed earnings calendar from both tech and crypto heavyweights. Microsoft, Meta, and Google are set to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) later in the week.
“If this week goes well — bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again,” Kendrick said.
Bitcoin price outlook
While bulls have made modest progress with Bitcoin, stronger resistance remains overhead at $117,600 and $122,000, leaving bears largely in control.
If Bitcoin manages to surpass $122,000, professionals note the next target could be the upper boundary of a broadening wedge pattern at $128,000.
Support levels remain critical for maintaining bullish momentum. The key short-term support at $106,900 held throughout last week, helping stabilize the market.
Falling below this level could open the path toward the $105,000–$102,000 support zone, which has already been tested twice, with a third test raising the likelihood of a breakdown.
Beyond that, $96,000 represents a crucial long-term support level for the broader bull market, acting as a do-or-die floor if prices decline further.
As of press time, bitcoin was trading at $115,041, up 1.22% over the past 24 hours.
Trump-linked American Bitcoin Corp, co-founded by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., just acquired 1,414 Bitcoins valued at $163 million, boosting its total holdings to 3,865 BTC worth nearly $445 million. Formed in March after a merger with Hut 8’s mining assets, American Bitcoin listed on Nasdaq in September. The company combines mining with direct buys, and now ranks among the top 25 public Bitcoin holders globally.
Metaplanet is seeking to maximize its Bitcoin returns be exercising a massive share buyback program. Metaplanet’s board has approved a large-scale ¥75.4 billion (~$500 million) share repurchase program as part of its Bitcoin-focused capital strategy. Announced on Oct. 28, the…
In the first-ever rating for a Bitcoin treasury company, S&P just rated Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. a B- junk credit. S&P Global Ratings has assigned Strategy Inc., the Bitcoin-treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy, a B- credit rating, placing it six…
Bitcoin edged higher on Sunday as signs of easing US-China trade tensions lifted risk assets, while Strategy’s founder hinted the company kept adding to its Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy Keeps Buying
Michael Saylor posted a chart on October 26 that uses orange dots to mark recent purchases. The visual cue has become his shorthand for new buys.
Based on reports, Strategy added 387 BTC between October 13 and October 20, bringing its total to 640,418 BTC. That number is striking on its own. It shows a steady, deliberate approach to buying even when prices are volatile.
Strategy’s disclosed average cost for its Bitcoin stands at $74,010. The company’s moves lately have been small compared with September, when it took in more than 7,000 BTC across several large transactions. The size of any fresh purchases this week has not been publicly revealed.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s market moves were influenced by broader news. The price of Bitcoin rose about 1.6% on Sunday, while Ethereum gained roughly 2.8%. Short-term swings appear driven more by headlines than by a single company’s actions.
Based on reports, at prices a little over $115,000 per BTC, Strategy’s Bitcoin stash is valued at around $72 billion. That valuation implies a paper gain of more than $25 billion over a total cost basis of about $47.4 billion since the program began in 2020.
Reports have logged 83 separate purchase events in that time, a pattern that has left investors with a clear view of the firm’s playbook: buy repeatedly and report afterward.
Some of the buying was concentrated in September, when the firm added thousands of coins in a few large moves. Recently, however, allocations have looked smaller and more frequent. That shift suggests a preference for steady accumulation rather than single big bets.
Buying Behavior And Market Response
Strategy shares have been trading above the company’s net asset value. That fact suggests investors are comfortable owning MSTR as a way to gain Bitcoin exposure without buying the token directly. The company’s method — announce purchases after the fact and let the market reflect the holdings — has been consistent and predictable.
Geopolitical Headlines Drive Volatility
Meanwhile, officials from the US and China signaled progress in trade talks, and that helped calm some investors. According to reports, Scott Bessent told CBS News he expected the threat of 100% tariffs and an immediate export control regime to have receded.
Earlier in October, China announced tighter limits on rare earth exports used in chip manufacturing. On October 11, US President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and planned export controls on certain software to take effect on November 1.
Those days of sharp rhetoric caused heavy losses across markets and triggered one of the largest liquidation events in crypto this year.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price is consolidating gains above $113,500. BTC could rise further if there is a clear move above the $115,750 resistance.
Bitcoin started a fresh upward move above the $114,000 resistance level.
The price is trading above $114,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $115,750 zone.
Bitcoin Price Starts Consolidation
Bitcoin price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $112,500 zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the main hurdle at $113,500.
It opened the doors for a move above $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Finally, the price spiked above $116,000 and is currently consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $106,718 swing low to the $116,309 high.
Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,500 level. The next resistance could be $115,750. A close above the $115,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $116,300 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $117,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,000.
Another Pullback In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,000 level. The first major support is near the $113,500 level or the trend line.
The next support is now near the $111,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $108,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $114,000, followed by $113,500.
Data shows cryptocurrency short investors have suffered large liquidations during the past day as Bitcoin and altcoins have made a recovery.
Bitcoin, Ethereum Have Surged In The Last 24 Hours
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have witnessed a rally during the past day, breaking away from the slump the market had earlier fallen into. At the height of this surge, Bitcoin broke past $116,000, while Ethereum touched $4,250.
The assets have since seen a small retracement. The chart below shows how BTC’s latest trajectory has looked.
At its current price of $115,400, Bitcoin is up about 4% on the weekly timeframe. Similarly, Ethereum at $4,160 is in a profit of 3.4%. Most other digital assets have seen similarly positive returns, although there are some outliers like Tron, which is down more than 7%. The market-wide recovery during the past day has meant that a large amount of short liquidations have piled up on the derivatives exchanges.
Crypto Market Liquidations Have Totaled At $467 Million
According to data from CoinGlass, about $467 million in cryptocurrency-related derivatives contracts have been liquidated over the last 24 hours. A contract is said to be “liquidated” when its platform forcibly shuts it down after it accumulates losses of a certain degree (as defined by the exchange).
Given that coins across the board have rebounded, the contracts crossing this threshold would mostly be the short ones. And indeed, the data would confirm so.
As is visible above, liquidations related to bearish cryptocurrency bets have reached $358 million in this window, representing 76.6% of the total flush in the sector. Bitcoin led the liquidations with $177 million in contracts involved, while Ethereum contributed the second most with $130 million in contracts. Out of the rest, Solana witnessed the largest flush at $34 million.
In some other news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have observed a notable amount of inflows over the past month, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post.
Spot ETFs refer to investment vehicles that allow investors to gain exposure to an asset without having to directly own it. The US SEC approved BTC spot ETFs in January of 2024. Here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the 30-day netflow for these vehicles has fluctuated since:
As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen inflows of $4.7 billion during the past month. Ethereum spot ETFs, which gained approval in mid-2024, have also enjoyed inflows in this period, although their value of $983 million is significantly less than BTC’s.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength, reclaiming the $115,000 level after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. Bulls are attempting to build momentum for a potential impulse move higher, aiming to confirm a sustained bullish structure after the recent consolidation phase.
On-chain data continues to reveal a clear and repeating pattern tied to investor behavior and market cycles. Historically, when the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 95%, the market tends to enter an overheated phase, often leading to sharp corrections. These pullbacks serve as natural cooling periods, resetting sentiment and liquidity before the next major leg up.
Interestingly, each correction cycle has shown consistent bottoming zones around the 75% threshold, where long-term holders reaccumulate and market confidence begins to rebuild. More specifically, data highlights profit supply lows of 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and a recent rebound from 81%, signaling a potential mid-cycle recovery phase.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 83.6% — Momentum Rebuilds Ahead of Key Threshold
According to top analyst Darkfost, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has started to climb again, currently standing at 83.6%. This steady rise indicates that a growing share of Bitcoin holders are once again sitting on unrealized gains — a trend that often reflects improving sentiment and renewed market confidence.
Darkfost notes that this level can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are willing to hold their BTC instead of realizing profits, anticipating further upside in the near term. Historically, such behavior has been characteristic of mid-cycle recovery phases, when fear starts to fade and accumulation resumes across both retail and institutional segments.
This stage of the cycle is considered healthy for rebuilding momentum, as it allows the market to stabilize after large corrections. Holders who previously capitulated often reenter at this stage, while long-term participants strengthen their positions, creating a more resilient market structure.
However, Darkfost cautions that once the supply in profit surpasses 95%, it typically signals overheated market conditions — a point where euphoria tends to replace rational conviction. In such phases, Bitcoin historically faces increased volatility and sharp corrections as overleveraged traders and short-term speculators take profits.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum, trading around $115,443 and successfully reclaiming key short-term support levels after weeks of consolidation. The daily chart highlights a strong recovery structure, with BTC breaking above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment.
The next critical test lies at $117,500, a historical resistance zone that previously rejected multiple attempts in September and early October. A clear breakout and daily close above this level would likely confirm an impulse continuation toward $120K–$125K, opening the door for a more sustained uptrend.
Momentum indicators suggest strengthening buying pressure, while the recent bounce from the 200-day moving average near $107K underscores the market’s resilience. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally, aligning with the broader pattern of accumulation seen on-chain, where investor profitability is rising steadily.
However, BTC remains within a range-bound structure, and rejection at $117.5K could trigger short-term consolidation back toward $111K–$112K. Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook appears constructive — if the bulls can sustain above $115K and confirm strength above $117.5K, the market could transition into a new bullish leg, supported by improving investor sentiment and on-chain health.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000.
Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High
Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000.
Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000.
The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle.
Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength
In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle.
The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market.
According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively.
Bitcoin’s price action was rather subdued last week, keeping traders guessing whether or not we would see another large drop in price entering the weekend. Price held above the lows, however, slowly plodding a little bit higher to close out the week at $114,530. Bulls should not be overly disappointed with this price action, as they did reclaim the $112,200 resistance level, and are now closing in on conquering the next resistance level at $115,500. The bears are still sitting comfortably in control, though, with stronger resistance levels hanging overhead that the bulls have yet to challenge. This may be an interesting and volatile week ahead, with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a slough of large companies reporting third-quarter earnings.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
Nothing has materially changed from last week’s resistance levels as the bulls have made little progress. Heavy resistance is still sitting at $117,600 and $122,000 above there, so the bears aren’t feeling any real pressure yet. If by chance this week gets above $122,000, we will look to the upper boundary of our broadening wedge pattern at $128,000.
Holding above the prior week’s low is a positive sign for the bulls, while they managed to maintain price above the key short-term support of $106,900 last week as well. This level must hold going forward, as closing below $106,900 opens the door back down to the $105,000 to $102,000 support zone that has already been tested twice. A third test of this support zone would be more likely to break it than to hold it. $96,000 is the long-term bull market support below here, a do-or-die support level if the price were to slide down and test it.
Outlook For This Week
Expect significant volatility this week, especially on Wednesday, as we have the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and ensuing Powell speech, followed by major earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Google after market close. Bulls will look to hold $109,000 as a floor into this week, as doing so would position them to maintain upward momentum. Looking at the Momentum Reversal Indicator, we are currently sitting on an 8-count entering Monday. This is a warning candle that we may see momentum begin to fade. Tuesday should bring the 9-count at which point we should expect at least a pause on upward momentum and a 1 to 4 day correction in price. So if bulls can push price up to the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement at $117,600 by Monday night or Tuesday morning, we should expect to see a rejection ther,e and we can re-assess after Wednesday’s FOMC and earnings reports play out.
Market mood: Bearish – While the bulls gained some ground last week, the bears remain stoic and strong. The bulls must push the price past $122,000 to take back control.
The next few weeks If bulls can manage to survive through this week, there are still some potential headwinds on the horizon. The US-China tariff dispute may or may not be resolved by the end of next week; a negative outcome will likely send all markets lower. Additionally, the US courts’ ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs is expected by November 5th. If these tariffs are reinstated, we should expect markets to head lower to price this impact in.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.
Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI): A proprietary indicator created by Tone Vays. The MRI indicator tracks buyer and seller momentum and exhaustion, providing signals to indicate when to expect momentum to fade and accelerate.
American Bitcoin Corp. (Nasdaq: ABTC), a Trump family–backed mining platform, has expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 3,865 bitcoin, adding 1,414 bitcoin since September through a combination of mining production and secondary market purchases.
The Miami-based firm, which describes itself as “America’s Bitcoin infrastructure backbone,” said the latest accumulation includes coins held in custody and those pledged for miner purchases under its ongoing procurement deal with Bitmain.
The update continues a rapid expansion trajectory that began earlier this year when Hut 8 spun out its U.S. mining arm as a separate, publicly traded entity.
American Bitcoin initially held around 500 BTC at the time of the carve-out, then purchased another 1,726 BTC between July and August for approximately $205 million.
Those holdings were pledged to Bitmain as collateral for a $314 million order of 16,299 Antminer U3S21EXPH units — nearly the full 15 EH/s option under the companies’ strategic supply agreement. Most of those machines will be hosted at Hut 8’s new Vega site in Texas, a 400-megawatt facility central to American Bitcoin’s push toward 25 EH/s of proprietary hashrate.
“We believe one of the most important measures of success for a Bitcoin accumulation platform is how much Bitcoin backs each share,” said Eric Trump, co-founder and chief strategy officer. “As part of that conviction, we are focused on providing transparent updates as we aim to increase our holdings.”
JUST IN: Trump Family-backed BTC miner American Bitcoin acquires 1,414 Bitcoin.
Executive Chairman Asher Genoot added that American Bitcoin’s integrated mining model allows it to lower its average cost per Bitcoin compared with treasury-style vehicles that buy on the open market.
“That structural advantage allows us to compound Bitcoin value per share more efficiently for our investors,” he said.
Shares of ABTC have been volatile since their September debut, rising 11% on Friday to close at $5.62 after recovering from midweek lows below $5.
The company, valued around $5.1 billion, remains one of the most closely watched plays in the sector — both for its aggressive expansion plans and its deep ties to the Trump family.
At the time of writing, the stock is trading at $5.83 and Bitcoin is trading at $115,000 after a couple of tumultuous weeks.
Gryphon, American Bitcoin merger
Earlier this year, Gryphon Digital Mining merged with American Bitcoin Corp., the Trump family–backed subsidiary of Hut 8, to form what they claim could become the most efficient pure-play Bitcoin miner in the industry.
The all-stock merger saw Gryphon shareholders own about 2% of the combined entity and American Bitcoin stakeholders hold 98%.
The merger, now finalized, provides American Bitcoin with a faster route to public markets and combines Gryphon’s mining technology with American Bitcoin’s capital strength and large-scale reserve strategy.
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The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction says that Ethereum, which is trading around $4,170, could be at the start of a big rise. Robert Kiyosaki believes this price level may give patient investors a strong chance to grow their wealth.
Robert Kiyosaki, the writer of Rich Dad Poor Dad, shared his opinion that Ethereum today reminds him of Bitcoin in the early days. He stated that people buying Ethereum will one day experience the same gains as those who bought Bitcoin when it was also valued at around $4,000.
Who is Robert Kiyosaki and What Does His Ethereum Prediction Mean?
Famous author and investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, often expresses his belief in the value of owning real assets, not just depending on paper money.
Recently, he has taken a strong liking to Ethereum and its future value. Robert Kiyosaki’s Ethereum prediction reflects his belief that Ethereum could have a run like Bitcoin.
Why Is Robert Kiyosaki Suddenly Bullish on Ethereum?
Robert Kiyosaki is excited about Ethereum because he believes that fiat currencies are in decline, and he believes that investors will need real digital assets for security throughout the rest of their lives.
Robert Kiyosaki is known for leading the use of gold, silver and Bitcoin, and now he has classified Ethereum with them. The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction focuses on the fact that ETH is real money due to its utility and scarcity driving its value.
What Makes Ethereum a Key Player in Kiyosaki’s View?
In his recent talk, Robert Kiyosaki said Ethereum has many real uses, such as in finance and smart contracts. He explained that these uses make it much more than just a coin to trade.
The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction says that real and practical uses could help Ethereum rise over time. He thinks that these uses will keep attracting more people and businesses to the network.
How Does Ethereum Compare to Bitcoin in This Context?
Kiyosaki’s comparison between Ethereum at $4,000 and Bitcoin when it was at the same price has drawn strong attention. He believes both reached a point where more people could begin to use them widely.
The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction presents ETH as the next version of Bitcoin with similar potential for major growth. Kiyosaki thinks Ethereum could follow a path like Bitcoin’s as blockchain technology continues to develop.
What Are Experts Saying About His Forecast?
Analysts say Robert Kiyosaki’s opinions often shape how investors think because of his long experience in finance. Some experts share Kiyosaki’s positive outlook and note that Ethereum has a solid network with updates that could make it quicker and easier to use. They believe these changes may help its value grow over time.
Other analysts point out that Bitcoin has a fixed supply, while Ethereum’s supply can change depending on network activity. Because of this, they say the prices of the two coins may not always move in the same direction.
Even so, the faith expressed in the Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction keeps people in the market talking. Many investors are watching closely to see how Ethereum’s value will change in the future.
The Broader Meaning Behind Kiyosaki’s Statement
Kiyosaki often talks about the idea of saving what he calls real money, such as gold, silver, Bitcoin, and now Ethereum. This shows that he does not fully trust traditional paper currencies.
He said that people who buy Ethereum at $4,000 could be like those who bought Bitcoin when it was at the same price. Through the Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction, he points to Ethereum as both a way to protect wealth and a chance for future growth.
The Practical Strengths Supporting Ethereum’s Case
Ethereum’s staking system, support for NFTs, and growing interest from large investors make it different from many other digital assets. Kiyosaki pointed to these features as key reasons Ethereum could perform well over time.
He believes these strengths prove that Ethereum holds true and lasting worth in the market. The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction links these strong points to a chance for a big increase in value.
Kiyosaki thinks Ethereum could grow the same way Bitcoin did when it first started rising. He believes it has the power to play a big part in the future of online investing.
Could Kiyosaki’s Perspective Signal a Market Turning Point?
When a well known investor like Robert Kiyosaki shares his thoughts, many people in the market pay attention. His view on Ethereum strengthens the idea that blockchain assets are becoming an important part of today’s investments.
The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction invites people to see crypto as more than just a gamble. It suggests that digital assets can be real tools for building wealth as technology continues to evolve.
Conclusion
The Robert Kiyosaki Ethereum prediction presents Ethereum at $4,000 as the starting point for a new era of digital growth. Although no prediction can be guaranteed, Kiyosaki’s belief matches the wider view that blockchain technology is shaping the future of finance.
If his idea turns out to be right, those investing in Ethereum today could see success similar to early Bitcoin holders. This makes his prediction one of the most closely followed in the cryptocurrency world.
Glossary
Generational Wealth: Wealth saved to help future family members.
Passive Income: Money that keeps coming in without daily work, like staking rewards.
Staking: Keeping crypto locked to help its system and earn more coins.
Blockchain: A secure digital book that records every crypto transaction.
Robert Kiyosaki: A famous author who teaches people smart ways to handle money.
Frequently Asked Questions About Robert Kiyosaki’s Ethereum Prediction
What did Robert Kiyosaki say about Ethereum?
He said buying Ethereum at arround $4,000 could be a big chance, like buying Bitcoin early.
Why is Kiyosaki bullish on Ethereum?
He thinks Ethereum has strong use in DeFi, gaming, and AI, and could build wealth over time.
Does Kiyosaki think Ethereum is the next Bitcoin?
Yes, he thinks Ethereum could become as big as Bitcoin one day.
What does Kiyosaki mean by “real money”?
He means assets like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum that hold value over time.
Can Ethereum give passive income?
Yes, through staking, users can earn rewards for helping run the Ethereum network.
MSTR stock price remained under pressure on Monday after Michael Saylor’s Strategy continued its Bitcoin accumulation. Strategy stock was trading at $294, down by 36% from its highest point this year and 46% below its all-time high of $542. This…
What began as a triumphant October for bitcoin quickly devolved into chaos as a $19 billion derivatives wipeout and a 17% price plunge left traders reeling.
As October draws to a close, optimism around Bitcoin price prediction 2025 is heating up. With BTC reclaiming key technical levels and macro events aligning in the final week of the month, November could emerge as the ignition point for a major bullish phase across crypto markets led by Bitcoin’s resurgence.
Macro Triggers Align for a Perfect Storm
This final week of October is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal in months. Multiple macro catalysts are converging simultaneously, as an analyst has mentioned that the end of quantitative tightening (QT) could be near, potential rate cuts have a higher likelihood than ever, a $1.5 trillion liquidity injection could boost US sentiment, and renewed U.S.-China cooperation could completely rejuvenate the market.
If these developments unfold as anticipated, the result could be a massive surge in global liquidity and risk appetite. The combination of macro, liquidity, and narrative dynamics sets a near-perfect stage for a breakout going into November.
Bitcoin price today is trading around $115,196, marking a sharp 12% rebound from its mid-October low of $103,750. This surge has propelled BTC price above its 200-day EMA, a historically significant indicator.
The last time Bitcoin crossed this level was in Q2 2025, it triggered a powerful upward rally, and similar momentum appears to be building again.
On the Bitcoin price chart, the move above all above major EMAs into new support zones. Now, sustaining above them reinforces bullish sentiment and increases the likelihood of continued upside in the BTC price USD range.
Based on the bullish circumstances from this week’s event, the coming November could see the primary target of $ 130,000 and the next target at $ 145,000 before the year concludes, if bullish momentum continues.
ETF Inflows Return as On-Chain Metrics Flash Green
Following a series of outflows, Bitcoin ETF products are now experiencing net positive inflows. On October 24, $90 million in fresh institutional capital flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, signaling renewed investor confidence.
If this momentum continues, october ending days could attract even more institutional liquidity into the market before heading into November.
Simultaneously, on-chain data reveals a steep decline in Bitcoin exchange reserves since September, implying mass accumulation by long-term holders.
Over the past ten days, nearly 7 million BTC have moved back into profit territory, including 5.1 million coins held by investors under six months, per an CryptoQuant insight. This shift indicates growing conviction among newer market participants and a strengthening market structure.
Psychological Shift Reinforces Bitcoin Price Forecast November 2025
Behaviorally, profitability breeds confidence. As short-term holders see consistent gains, they’re less likely to sell prematurely and more inclined to add to positions. This gradual transformation from short-term speculation to medium-term conviction is a hallmark of early bull market phases.
If Bitcoin maintains its position above these realized price levels, it could confirm a structural transition back to optimism potentially paving the way for another leg up in the broader crypto rally. With momentum, macro alignment, and ETF inflows all trending upward, the Bitcoin price prediction 2025 looks increasingly promising.
FAQs
How much will 1 Bitcoin cost in 2025?
As per Coinpedia’s BTC price prediction, the Bitcoin price could peak at $168k this year if the bullish sentiment sustains.
How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2030?
With increased adoption, the price of Bitcoin could reach a height of $901,383.47 in 2030.
How much will the price of Bitcoin be in 2040?
As per our latest BTC price analysis, Bitcoin could reach a maximum price of $13,532,059.98
How high will Bitcoin go in 2050?
By 2050, a single BTC price could go as high as $377,949,106.84
Strategy acquired 390 BTC for approximately $43.4 million, at an average price of $111,053 per bitcoin, achieving a strong 26% yield in 2025 year-to-date. As of October 26, 2025, the company holds a total of 640,808 BTC purchased for around $47.44 billion, with an average cost of $74,032 per bitcoin. This reflects MicroStrategy’s continued confidence and aggressive strategy in bitcoin accumulation and investment growth this year.
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The market opens with a calmer stride. Crypto prices reflect a modest bid across majors as funding normalizes and forced selling cools. Traders are watching policy signals and liquidity conditions, with attention on whether easing talk translates into sustained flows. Positioning looks cleaner than it did late last week, which tends to reduce whipsaws and gives price action a chance to breathe.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin trades in a tightened range, and that alone feels constructive after a choppy weekend. The first task for bulls is to defend recent higher lows while pressing toward the upper band of resistance seen in overnight trade.
Derivatives data shows a softer pace of liquidations than earlier in the week. When volatility cools without a sharp drop in open interest, it often signals that participants are rebuilding positions with more caution. If macro headlines lean supportive, crypto prices can grind higher as systematic buyers follow momentum signals.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum continues a measured catch-up. The market likes the improving depth on major pairs and the narrative around network activity stabilizing after the last burst of upgrades. Traders are focusing on the 4,200 to 4,300 zone as a pivot that can flip sentiment from cautious to constructive.
If spot demand holds into the close, the door opens for a test of the next shelf above. In that scenario, crypto prices for ETH tend to pull alt liquidity with them, especially in high quality large caps.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP is steady after recent swings. The coin’s behavior has been textbook range trading, with quick fades at resistance and fast rebounds near support. That rhythm suggests market makers are active and retail is respecting levels. A clean close above the mid-range would encourage momentum accounts to re-engage. If the tape stays quiet, crypto prices for XRP likely chop within the band until a higher time frame catalyst arrives.
BNB
BNB holds its footing above the prior breakdown area, which is a small but notable positive. The spot book shows buyers willing to defend incremental dips, and that has reduced the frequency of sharp wicks. The pair’s next step is to stabilize volume on up days rather than clustering activity during selloffs. If that shift continues, crypto prices for BNB can lean into a slow stair-step higher rather than relying on one-off squeezes.
Solana (SOL)
Solana carries a confident tone when broader risk appetite improves. Recent sessions show buyers returning on shallow pullbacks, which is usually a sign that intraday participants expect follow-through. A
s long as the market respects the nearest support shelf, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Should liquidity thin out, the pair can still experience quick air pockets, but the medium view improves if higher lows keep printing. That backdrop often helps crypto prices across adjacent high beta names.
Context that matters beyond the tick-by-tick
Macro expectations sit front and center. A friendlier path for policy usually eases financial conditions, lowers discount rates, and supports risk assets. On the micro side, the liquidation profile has cooled and sentiment sits close to neutral. Neither euphoria nor panic is in control, which is often the recipe for a grind rather than a spike.
If exchange flows and spot demand improve together, crypto prices tend to hold gains more easily, and leadership broadens beyond a single coin.
Conclusion
This is a healthier tape than a few days ago. Bitcoin is calm, Ethereum is building, and the rest of the board is following in a sensible way. It is not a victory lap, but it is constructive. If macro signals remain supportive and the derivatives picture stays balanced, crypto prices can continue to firm into the week. If the tone sours, expect a quick check of nearby support, followed by another attempt to reset and climb.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can readers see live crypto prices for top coins like BTC and ETH? Live quotes are available on major price dashboards and institutional terminals. The figures in this article come from real-time market feeds.
Why do policy odds affect crypto prices? Rate expectations change the price of liquidity. Easier policy often supports risk assets by lowering discount rates and easing financial conditions.
Do liquidations always push markets higher afterward? No. Large short liquidations can fuel a bounce, but if demand is weak, the effect fades quickly. Context matters.
Glossary of long key terms
Open interest The total number of outstanding futures or options contracts. Rising open interest with rising crypto prices can signal trend confirmation.
Market capitalization The combined value of all circulating crypto assets. It helps frame market size and dominance when comparing segments.
Policy rate probabilities Implied odds from futures that estimate the chance of an interest rate move at an upcoming meeting. Traders watch these odds because shifts can move crypto prices.
Liquidations Forced closures of leveraged positions when margin is insufficient. Heavy short liquidations can reduce immediate selling pressure and sometimes lift crypto prices.
Bitcoin price has regained momentum as supply in profit rises and trend strength improves. As of this writing, Bitcoin is up 4% over the last day, trading at about $116,030. Now up 5.1% for the week and 5.7% for the…
According to NYDIG research, Bitcoin’s price moves are driven more by the strength of the US dollar and broad liquidity conditions than by direct ties to inflation.
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, said the data show weak and inconsistent links between inflation measures and Bitcoin. That view shifts attention away from the old narrative that Bitcoin is mainly an inflation hedge.
Inflation Link Weak
Cipolaro argued that expectations for inflation are a slightly better signal than headline inflation readings, but still not a tight predictor of Bitcoin’s price.
Instead, Bitcoin and gold both tend to gain when the US dollar weakens. While gold’s inverse relation with the dollar is long established, Bitcoin’s opposite movement to the dollar is newer but visible.
Gold And Bitcoin React To Dollar Moves
Based on reports, gold has historically climbed as the dollar falls. Bitcoin is following that pattern, though its correlation is less steady than gold’s.
As Bitcoin becomes more connected with mainstream finance, NYDIG expects that its inverse relationship with the dollar will likely strengthen.
This makes sense to traders who price everything in dollars and seek alternatives when the greenback loses purchasing power.
Interest Rates And Money Supply
Cipolaro highlighted interest rates and money supply as the two major macro levers that move both gold and Bitcoin.
Lower interest rates and looser monetary policy have tended to support higher prices for these assets.
In simple terms: when borrowing costs drop and liquidity rises, Bitcoin often benefits. The note framed gold as more of a real-rate hedge, while Bitcoin is described as acting like a gauge of market liquidity — a subtle but important distinction for investors.
Illiquid Supply Drops, Selling Pressure Returns
On-chain data show signs of renewed selling. Reports say illiquid Bitcoin — coins held in long-dormant wallets — fell from 14.38 million earlier in October to 14.300 million on the 23rd of October.
That change means roughly 62,000 BTC, worth about $6.8 billion at recent prices, moved back into circulation. In the past, large inflows did exert price pressure. In January 2024, a substantial sum of coins came available that caused the price momentum to soften.
According to Glassnode data, there has been a consistent selloff from wallets holding from 0.1 to 100 BTC, and first-time buyer supply has contracted down to ~213,000 BTC.
The overall assessment from a macro perspective and on-chain metrics is not favorable. Demand from new buyers appears to be lighter, momentum traders appear to have stepped aside, and more coins are now available to trade. This combination can blunt rallies or deepen pullbacks until liquidity conditions improve or the dollar weakens.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Over the years, a number of indicators have emerged that have often helped to pinpoint the Bitcoin bull market peak. These indicators have been triggered in previous cycles, and their triggers have often been a signal that it was time to get out of the market, as a new bear market is underway. However, this time around, even with the Bitcoin price hitting multiple new all-time highs, none of these cycle peak indicators have been triggered, suggesting that the market top has yet to be reached.
0 Out Of 30 Bull Market Peak Indicators Triggered
The Bull Market Peak Indicator tracker on the Coinglass website follows a total of 30 indicators that follow 30 indicators that show the progress of the Bitcoin bull market toward reaching a top. Some major ones include the Bitcoin Bubble Index, the Puell Multiple, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, and the Altcoin Season Index, among others.
Usually, these indicators are tracked on a scale of 0-100%, with 0% meaning that it is far from being triggered and 100% showing that an indicator has been triggered. If only a few of these get to the 100% mark and are triggered, it usually doesn’t mean that the Bitcoin peak has been reached.
However, even now, not one of these indicators has been triggered. Most continue to remain quite low, while the likes of the Bitcoin dominance are high, but still have not been triggered. For there to be a definite progress toward the Bitcoin market peak, at least half of these would have to be triggered.
What This Means For Investors
Since none of the bull market peak indicators have been triggered, it means that the Bitcoin price might actually be far away from its all-time high. With the score still being 0 out of 30, it points to this being a time to hold, despite the declines that the market has suffered recently.
According to a previous report from Bitcoinist, this was the case a few months ago, and now two months later, the tracker remains the same. Thus, it could be that $126,000 is not the all-time high for Bitcoin, and that the market could end up getting an altcoin season after all.
In the case that more than half of the bull market peak indicators do get triggered, then it means that the top of the market is getting close. Once it gets to 30/30, then it signals the start of the next bear market, and this is when selling is at its highest in the market, leading to rapid price declines across the board.
The crypto market today is witnessing explosive momentum as Bitcoin surges past the $115,000 mark, reigniting bullish sentiment across the board. Major altcoins like VIRTUAL, ZEC & DASH are skyrocketing, reflecting renewed investor confidence and growing market liquidity ahead of a high-volatility week. With traders eyeing key macro events and technical breakouts, the digital asset space is buzzing with optimism. The big question now—can this rally be sustained, or is the market gearing up for another round of sharp corrections?
Over the past few months, the Virtual Protocol price has been stuck within a descending parallel channel. The token attempted a breakout that resulted in forming yet another lower high, indicating the rising strength of the bears. However, it has broken above the structure following a strong influx of buying volume that suggests the VIRTUAL price is poised for a strong upswing.
The price broke above the channel with a huge rise in the buying pressure; however, the technicals point towards a consolidation ahead of the next breakout. The RSI entered the overbought range and appears to be flattening. On the other hand, On-Balance Volume spiked and continues to maintain a steady rise. Flattening RSI & rising OBV is usually a bullish signal, hinting towards accumulation during consolidation. It implies that smart money is quietly buying regardless of price movement and creating bullish pressure beneath the surface.
Therefore, traders can expect a cooling phase before breaking the resistance zone between $1.86 and $1.94 that may pave the way beyond $2 to reach $2.1.
Zcash (ZEC) Price Eyes 35% Rise to Hit $500
Zcash price is witnessing one of the bulliest months, not seen in the past few years. The buying volume rose back to the 2021 bull run days, which helped the price mark a steep rise after following a prolonged ascending consolidation. Currently, the ZEC price has surpassed one of the important resistances, which was the market top during the 2021 bull run. If the price sustains within the range, a continued upswing may help the price break higher targets.
As seen in the above chart, the ZEC price has broken the resistance zone between $293 and $316 and closed the weekly trade above this range. This suggests the bulls have held a tight grip over the rally, and the momentum may not fade as OBV remains escalated. Interestingly, the 50/200 weekly MA underwent a bullish crossover that could help the token sustain the upward trend and push towards the higher targets at 1.2 FIB at $471 and 1.4 FIB at $522.
Regardless of the 20% Jump Dash (DASH) Price Awaits a Breakout
Ever since the rally rose above the impact of the 2022 bear market, the DASH price has been stuck within a massive descending parallel channel. Every attempt of the token to break the resistance has resulted in a strong rejection, while the current scenario raises some hopes. The price has been defending the pivotal support just above $40 for a few weeks and hence flashes a huge possibility of a breakout above $60 in the coming days.
The DASH price remains within the descending parallel channel but has secured the pivotal support at the 200-day MA. With the volume spiking to the highest levels not seen in recent times, a breakout from the range could be imminent. On the other hand, the RSI has yet again entered the overbought range. Previously, this move followed a steep rejection, but the current rebound suggests there could be more room for the price to rise. Therefore, once the RSI reenters back into the overbought range, the price could break the channel and rise above the resistance zone between $61 and $63.
Once these levels are secured, the Dash price may enter a strong bullish trend and probably reach $100 in 2025.
Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $113,500. BTC could rise further if there is a clear move above the $115,500 resistance.
Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $113,500 resistance level.
The price is trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $115,500 zone.
Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Increase
Bitcoin price declined again below the $108,000 level. BTC tested the $106,720 zone and recently started a fresh increase. There was a move above the $112,000 resistance level.
The bulls were able to pump the price above $113,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Finally, the price spiked above $115,000 and is currently consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $106,718 swing low to the $115,400 high.
Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,500 level. The next resistance could be $116,200. A close above the $116,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $117,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,800.
Another Pullback In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,000 level. The first major support is near the $113,500 level or the trend line.
The next support is now near the $111,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $108,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $114,000, followed by $113,500.
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On-chain data shows roughly 62,000 BTC have moved out of long-term storage since mid-October, softening one of this cycle’s strongest tailwinds. But steady whale accumulation and a moderate short-side cleanup helped prices stabilize near $114K.
Bitcoin cleared $112,000 on heavy volume and hovered near $114,500 late Sunday (UTC), while CoinGlass showed $319 million of short positions liquidated over 24 hours.
The XRP/BTC monthly chart has finally snapped the long diagonal that’s capped XRP since 2018, and one analyst on X thinks that shift could rewrite the pecking order. Posting under the handle X Finance Bull (XFB), the analyst argued that XRP will soon start to outperform Bitcoin.
This is because the XRP/BTC pair has not only broken out but also retested the trendline as support, and this has certified the start of a new buildup of momentum.
Retest Of A Six-Year Breakout Trendline
The mid-October flash crash that rippled through the crypto market left a visible mark on the XRP/BTC chart, creating a deep downward wick that momentarily dipped below the long-standing resistance trendline. However, as Bitcoin started to recover to above $110,000, XRP struggled to keep up and lost ground relative to Bitcoin.
Interestingly, price action shows that this move was short-lived, and XRP has started to recover against Bitcoin in recent trading sessions. As shown on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart below, the wick fell to the exact level of the breakout retest, a point where former resistance turned into new support.
This breakout occurred in late 2024/early 2025, when XRP outperformed Bitcoin for three consecutive months. From there, the XRP/Bitcoin pair was able to break out of a downward-sloping resistance trendline of lower highs spanning over six years.
Since then, however, 2025 has been characterized by more months of Bitcoin outperforming XRP than months of XRP outperforming Bitcoin, with October falling into the former group of months. Particularly, during the flash crash, the XRP/BTC pair plunged to around 0.000007 before rebounding almost immediately, a move that, according to XFB, represents the long-awaited retest of the broken trendline.
Since that retest, XRP has recovered impressively, with the pair maintaining a monthly close above the diagonal that once acted as a ceiling. This technical confirmation signals the completion of the breakout from the 2018 to 2024 downtrend that had defined XRP’s multi-year underperformance against Bitcoin. The monthly structure is now displaying the early signs of an upward shift, with the pair trading around 0.00002258 BTC.
XRP To Decouple And Outperform Bitcoin?
According to the analyst, XRP is about to undergo a rally that massively outperforms Bitcoin and melts the face of many Bitcoin maximalists. XFB’s chart outlines two target zones ahead for XRP: 0.00014688 BTC and 0.00023009 BTC. The first target corresponds to the consolidation area seen between 2018 and 2019, while the second represents a major resistance cluster from the earlier phase of XRP’s creation. If XRP/BTC rallies to those levels, it would amount to approximately a 6x and 10x gain relative to Bitcoin, respectively.
The analyst also connects the technical setup to Ripple’s growing institutional ecosystem. He pointed to Ripple Prime, GTreasury, Metaco, Standard Custody, and Rail as part of the infrastructure that’s setting up XRP as a bridge asset for global finance. These partnerships give XRP an edge heading into the coming months, as it moves into real institutional utility and starts outperforming Bitcoin.
If these developments continue, the incoming decoupling of the XRP/BTC pair could become one of the most significant events for XRP. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.63, up by 3.5% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Major cryptocurrencies are trading higher ahead of a busy week featuring key Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan rate decisions alongside earnings reports from influential Mag 7 stocks.
Bitcoin has performed strongly below expectations in October, with total monthly gains now estimated at around 1.54%. Following a bullish start, which established a new all-time high at $126,000, the premier cryptocurrency experienced a heavy correction mid-month, resulting in present price levels around $111,400. Amid these developments, crypto analyst Amr Taha has noted a recent shift on the Binance network, with potentially bullish implications for market participants.
Exchange Reserves Near Critical Low
In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, Amr Taha shares insights into Bitcoin’s possible near-term trajectory, using data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve on Binance. As the name implies, this metric is an on-chain indicator that tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held in exchange wallets over time.
The exchange reserve is an important measure of investors’ sentiment, as a high figure suggests preparation to sell and a growing lack of conviction among investors. However, when investors withdraw large amounts of their holdings from exchanges, especially within a short period, it indicates confidence in the asset’s prospects for price appreciation.
Taha points out that the Bitcoin exchange reserves on Binance have seen a significant decline, with the current reading approaching 610,000 BTC, a level last reached in July, and also one of the lowest levels seen last year. While Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have steadily declined throughout 2025, the analyst remarks that the most recent decline looks “extremely aggressive,” implicitly suggesting the possibility of an imminent radical change.
One possible effect of this drastic drop in exchange reserve is a supply shock, i.e., a sudden drop in the available supply of an asset. This abrupt shrinkage in selling supply also increases the market’s fragility to the upside, with increasing demand serving as fuel to bolster major upswings.
Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Falling Exchange Reserve
Interestingly, Taha explains that as Bitcoin’s price swings around the $111,500 level, it reflects an underlying amount of demand, thus reinforcing earlier conjectures on growing long-term holders (LTH) confidence. As a result, Bitcoin could soon see an influx of momentum to push its price to the upside.
Aside from growing institutional and whale accumulation standing as the primary driver of declining reserves, the analyst also points out the immense demand from the spot ETFs as another factor in play. A proportion of BTC typically gets pulled into these funds, thereby competing with the supply of Bitcoin available in the market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $111,613, reflecting no significant movement in the past day.
Crypto influencer Coach JV has reiterated his long-term faith in XRP and other digital assets, saying the current moment marks “the greatest shift in humanity.”
According to his post on X, he updated a ranked list of his top holdings and urged patience, arguing that the next five years will reshape how money moves and how families hold wealth.
Analyst’s Updated Holdings
His current ranking places XRP first, followed by Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), Stellar (XLM), WLFI, Hedera (HBAR), and VeChain (VET). He said he favors assets with real-world use and lasting value over quick trades.
Reports have disclosed that WLFI — the token tied to the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial — has not rallied since its September launch and is down about 71% from its peak on September 1.
Still, Coach JV wrote that WLFI is “making moves up [his] ranking,” signaling increased confidence in the token despite its recent drop.
My top holding have adjusted a bit.
In order (just my journey do you)
XRP
BITCOIN
SOL
XLM
WLFI (making moves up my ranking)
HBAR
VET
Coach JV argued that XRP’s fixed supply, speed, and scalability make it useful for cross-border payments. He has described XRP and Bitcoin as stores of family wealth.
He told followers that fiat currency loses buying power over time and that crypto can help preserve purchasing power across generations.
Coach JV also predicted that by 2030 he will look back and see early conviction rewarded. He went further, saying he expects XRP to surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum to become the top cryptocurrency by 2030 and that Ripple could act like a future bank.
Community Response And Timing
Meanwhile, reports have highlighted renewed optimism in the XRP community after pro-XRP engineer Vincent Van Code posted that “we might see some big announcements in favor of XRP.”
Van Code suggested such news could come as soon as the US government reopens. Concerns over regulatory delays have been raised elsewhere; several observers say a temporary US shutdown slowed progress on approvals for an XRP exchange-traded fund and other regulatory milestones. Those delays are often cited as reasons why some market-moving updates remain pending.
Boy wait til the government reopens again soon. We might see some big announcements in favor of XRP.
Market figures underline that conviction does not equal short-term gains. WLFI’s fall of about 71% from its peak on September 1 is a sharp example. Price moves like that were recorded after the token’s September debut.
Investors quoted in social posts have pushed back, reminding followers that publicity and social confidence do not guarantee future returns.
Outlook And Advice
According to Coach JV, patience is central: he told his audience to think in decades, not days, and wrote, “Looking forward to coming back to this in 2030.”
That view is shared by some supporters, while others urge caution and point to clear losses in tokens like WLFI as reasons to manage risk.
For now, Coach JV’s stance is public and firm, and it has sparked renewed debate about what role XRP and related projects will play in mainstream finance over the coming years.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The move comes as the BTC/gold ratio — a measure of Bitcoin’s relative value against the yellow metal — flashed its most oversold reading in nearly three years last week.
Bitcoin has confirmed a breakout above $111,000, showing strength after several weeks of sideways movement. The move comes as inflation data in the United States came in slightly better than expected, lifting both stocks and digital assets.
Inflation Eases, Stocks Push Higher
The latest consumer price index report showed a 3 percent annual rise, slightly below the expected 3.1 percent. That small difference gave a mild boost to markets, with the S&P 500 moving closer to record highs.
Bitcoin often moves in line with major stock indexes, and the broader uptrend in equities continues to support a positive tone across digital assets. Historically, Bitcoin has not entered a deep downturn while U.S. stocks have been reaching new highs.
Momentum Builds but Resistance Ahead
Bitcoin remains in a larger upward trend on the weekly chart. The super trend indicator continues to show green, pointing to an active bull phase. Even so, a loss of momentum is visible, which could keep prices moving sideways for several weeks.
The latest daily candle closed at around $111,000, above the previous ceiling near $110,000. Holding above this level is now important. If the price slips below, the recent breakout could fade. If it stays above, the next area to watch sits between $114,000 and $116,000, where earlier selling took place.
Market Liquidity Maps Out Next Steps
Heat map data shows a buildup of activity above the current price, mainly around $114,000 and $116,000. These zones may pull the market higher as positions unwind. Still, movement could slow within this range, as past reactions often reappear near the same levels.
Short bursts upward or small pullbacks are both likely during this phase. Overall, this type of movement signals a market cooling off before setting a new direction.
Outlook for the Weeks Ahead
The broader picture remains favorable. Inflation is steady, equity markets are firm, and digital assets continue to attract fresh interest.
Bitcoin could stay rangebound between $110,000 and $116,000 before building strength for a larger advance. A clean move above $116,000 would open room for further gains, while slipping under $110,000 would likely bring another short-term correction.
According to VanEck’s Mid-October 2025 ChainCheck, Bitcoin could climb much higher if several big pieces line up. The firm ties Bitcoin’s long-run gains to broad money growth and futures market flows, and it lays out a path that reaches as high as $180,000 before the current bull market ends.
VanEck Links Bitcoin To Global Money Supply
Reports have disclosed a roughly 0.5 correlation between Bitcoin and total global M2 growth since 2014. Over that span, global liquidity across the top five currencies rose from about $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion.
Bitcoin’s price jumped roughly 700x during the same years. VanEck frames Bitcoin’s current size at about 2% of global money supply and argues that owning less than that share is, in effect, a bet against the asset class.
This is a simple, numeric way to link money printing and asset demand. It does not claim perfect prediction, but it does say the connection is meaningful.
Futures Flows And Market Fragility
Based on reports, futures markets have been a major driver of short-term price moves. VanEck cites that about 73% of Bitcoin’s price variance since October 2020 can be traced to shifts in futures open interest, with a t-statistic of 71 supporting the relationship.
Cash collateral backing those contracts sits near $145 billion. Open interest peaked at $52B on Oct. 6 and then fell to $39 billion by Oct. 10 after an eight-hour, 20% plunge in BTC.
Borrowed positions have climbed near the 95th percentile at times, though positions above 30% have not held for more than 75 days historically. That pattern shows how crowded bets can unwind fast, and it helps explain sudden swings.
Rotation Between Safe Havens And Risk Assets
Meanwhile, analysts said that gold’s recent $2.5 trillion market cap correction should be read as a cooling off rather than a loss of faith. They said investors could shift between protection and growth exposure depending on macro prints.
Based on reports, a soft US CPI print or easing trade tensions could redirect capital into Bitcoin, supporting scenarios where BTC moves to around $130,000–$132,000 in Q1 2026. Shorter-term targets in VanEck’s work include $129,200 and $141,000, while a clear rise above $125,000 would be taken as a sign of renewed buying strength.
Key Price Levels And Risks
Price action has been trading between $108,000 and $125,000. VanEck identifies a “Whale Buy Zone” near $108,600 and says holding above $108,000 keeps the odds tilted to the upside.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
CryptoWzrd, in his latest daily technical outlook, noted that Bitcoin managed to close in the green, but the candle remains indecisive, signaling that a clear reversal is yet to form. He added that more healthy bullish candles are needed to confirm a shift in momentum. For now, his attention is on the lower timeframes, where he plans to look for the next long opportunity once the current position is secured.
Indecisive Daily Close Reflects Market Uncertainty After CPI Data
Crypto analyst CryptoWzrd began his analysis by noting the ambiguity in recent price action, stating that the daily Bitcoin candle closed indecisively, although it was green. The primary focus of the past week was the traditional weekly candle close following the release of the US CPI data. Meanwhile, the weekly candle also closed without a clear direction, leaving the overall market structure ambiguous.
The analyst defined a clear condition for the rally to continue. BTC’s ability to push higher is entirely dependent upon holding above the $110,500 resistance level. Maintaining this key floor should generate enough positive momentum to boost the market further upside, targeting the major resistance at $120,000 and potentially higher if conviction remains strong.
However, if the price fails to hold $110,500, the market is at risk of declining further. In this scenario, the analyst targets the key technical support level located at $100,000 as the likely floor for the ensuing correction.
Regardless of whether Bitcoin executes a bullish or bearish move, the analyst issued a warning regarding the broader market. During the weekend, most altcoins will not forge their own paths but will instead simply mirror the outcome of Bitcoin’s price action.
The health of the altcoin market is directly linked to Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), which the analyst observes as neutral on the daily chart. For altcoins to break free of Bitcoin’s gravitational pull and remain positive, the market requires more structural weakness in BTC.D.
On Choppy Price Action & Ongoing Uncertainty
CryptoWzrd concluded the analysis by noting that the intraday chart activity had been “somewhat choppy” throughout the day, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum in the short term. Despite this recent consolidation, the underlying expectation remains bullish.
Looking ahead, the analyst predicts a further upside move towards the $115,300 resistance in the near future. At this stage, the market has performed its necessary moves, and the next step is simply to wait for the market to play out and confirm the push toward the pivotal $120,000 resistance target.
The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs.
Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market.
US Stock Market’s Record-Breaking Momentum
The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance.
The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact.
However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength.
Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000.
When Bitcoin Finally Catches Up
The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established.
Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000.
Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600.
This disclosure highlights the growing acceptance and integration of cryptocurrency investments among US lawmakers, potentially influencing regulatory perspectives.
Bitcoin price struggled to establish a stable direction in the past week, as intense levels of volatility continue to rock the market. Following two weeks of market correction, the premier cryptocurrency attempted a price rebound, reaching around $112,000 before retracing to $107,000 price zone.
Presently, Bitcoin trades in the $111,000 price range after some steady gains in the past 48 hours. Interestingly, a popular analyst with the X username DaanCrypto has identified an insightful trend amidst this market uncertainty.
Sideways Bitcoin Market Sets Stage For Explosive Move As Liquidity Builds
In a post on Friday, DaanCrypto shared an important on-chain development of the Bitcoin market following the highly volatile price moves in October 2025. Despite the consistent price swings, the analyst explains that BTC has remained locked in a local price range over the past two weeks, with its present price hovering above the midpoint of this structure.
This sideways action has been driven by buyers and sellers repeatedly foiling each other’s attempts to break out, thereby preventing the asset from establishing a decisive breakout pattern. Amid the continuous consolidation, untriggered liquidation levels are accumulating just above and below the local price range.
This pattern is typical of Bitcoin’s pre-breakout phases. DaanCrypto explains that the longer the price consolidates within a tight corridor, the more liquidity pools build up outside it. Notably, when price eventually sweeps these clusters, it often triggers a cascade of liquidations and stop orders, which fuel the next large price move.
Using data from Coinglass, DaanCrypto has identified $106,000 as a level with the heaviest concentration of long liquidations. Therefore, this price point functions as a critical support zone, and a downward wick below which could trigger selling forces pushing Bitcoin to deeper levels.
Meanwhile, the $115,000 region holds a thick short-side liquidity, meaning a push above this threshold could fuel a rapid short squeeze and propel BTC to higher levels, perhaps beyond its current all-time high at $126,210.
Bitcoin Still On For A Comeback?
In contrast to popular sentiments of an “Uptober” and blooming Q4, Bitcoin has failed to achieve a sustainable price growth in October. A report from the Bitcoin Archive states that the crypto asset’s return in Q4 2025 is now estimated at -2.84%. This figure shows an extreme underperformance as Bitcoin’s average Q4 is valued at 74.77%.
However, with over 60 days remaining until the end of 2025, there is still ample time for the premier cryptocurrency to pull off a market recovery. After the CPI data met expectations, the chances of an interest rate cut have increased, and an eventual announcement by the Federal Reserve could perhaps trigger Bitcoin’s rebound, among other factors.
At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $111,424, reflecting a 3.91% gain in the past seven days.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price action has been somewhat impressive in 2025, as the flagship cryptocurrency ascended from around $93,300 in early January to its current all-time-high price of $126,000 this month. While the digital asset saw a couple of resets along the way, it continued to put in new highs, reflecting the magnitude of confidence held by its long-term investors.
However, the recent correction seen this October seems to be shaking that confidence, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bull cycle, and if the long-feared bear market is imminent. However, recent on-chain data points to an interestingly brighter outlook than what is currently being experienced by market participants.
Some Relevant BTC On-Chain Levels
In an October 24 post on the X platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Arch Physicist highlighted what could be encouraging news for Bitcoin market participants.
The crypto pundit’s analysis was based on the Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) to Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the amount of coins that are moved on the blockchain in relation to the potential profits based on their movements. Essentially, this metric is used to locate price zones that can serve as support or resistance.
Arch Physicist highlighted four important readings from the metric, thereafter explaining on the underlying functions of each of them.
The analyst noted:
‘Gamma + Epsilon’ is used to determine structural highs formed due to Long-Term Holder (LTH) profit-taking, with its current value being around $147,937; ‘Delta + Epsilon’ represents support formed by Short-Term Holder (STH) entry opportunities, currently valued at approximately $92,902. Epsilon, on its part, is used to represent potential price floors.
LTH Support Holds As Bitcoin Puts In Highs
Arch Physicist further explained that the metric’s functions are in tandem with Bitcoin’s historical price action. “Bitcoin’s price has broken above the structural high (Gamma + Epsilon) and reached ATHs near Beta during bull runs. It has also historically made ATLs very close to Epsilon,” the analyst said.
Interestingly, the Bitcoin price in this cycle has consistently traded within the support zones established by its LTHs, and the ones by its STHs. However, price seems to be heading towards the lower support zone, which, if breached, could signal the beginning of a bear market. On the other hand, the sustained integrity of the upper support could also be indicating that the bull run has not even started.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at approximately $11,890, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The feature is developed with Tether and was announced at the Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano, Switzerland. The first BTC tip was sent to content creator David Freiheit.
The crypto market is showing signs of a potential rebound as key indicators start to turn in its favor. Experts suggest that the momentum may finally be building for the markets as we head into the final weeks of 2025.
In a recent interview with CNBC, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has shared a bullish outlook on both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies.
The market recently went through a major shake-up. Lee notes that on October 10, crypto experienced its biggest liquidation event in five years, partly triggered by rising U.S.–China trade tensions. Even two weeks later, he notes that the ripple effects are plaguing in the market.
A Year-End Crypto Rally?
However, despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin and Ethereum have held up well. Lee highlighted that open interest for both Bitcoin and Ethereum is at record lows, while technical indicators for both coins are now turning positive, which points to improving market conditions.
“I think we’re almost through that because a measure like something called open interest for both Ethereum and Bitcoin are at record lows at a time when the technicals for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are flipping positive. So I think you’re going to see a crypto rally into the end of the year,” he said.
He also pointed to institutional signals, like JPMorgan being open to using crypto as collateral, as an important bullish factor.
BREAKING: Tom Lee says leverage is wiped out from crypto, Bitcoin & ETH open interest is at historic lows and “ we gonna see a crypto rally into the end of the year ”
Lee also highlighted that despite the recent historic deleveraging, Bitcoin only fell 3–4%. He believes that this demonstrates Bitcoin’s growing role as a reliable store of value. He also compared it to gold, noting that a similar event in the gold market, causing such a small decline, would be seen as a strong validation of the asset.
He also noted Ethereum is showing strong growth, particularly in activity on both its Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks, fueled by stablecoins. While this growth is not fully reflected in Ethereum’s price yet, he notes that the fundamental activity on Ethereum is picking up, which could lead to a pretty big move into the year-end.
Beyond crypto, Lee believes that the S&P 500, already up more than 15% year-to-date, could gain another 4–10% by year-end, supported by Fed rate cuts and investor skepticism.
Bitcoin Shows Technical Strength
Analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin as technical indicators show signs of strength. Rekt Capital pointed out that BTC is close to breaking out of a daily ascending triangle. Meanwhile, weekend price action suggests that Bitcoin is showing relative strength, currently outperforming its 16-week average trend.
On CNBC, Tom Lee said Fed cuts and fading skepticism could lift U.S. stocks into year-end and that crypto may rebound as open interest resets and technicals improve.
Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity is drying up fast, as the metric recently hit a seven-year low, reaching around 3.12 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018. This occurred as BTC continued to trade below the 99-day Moving Average (MA), located around $112,086.
Bitcoin Liquidity Dries Up Amid High Demand
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s sell-side liquidity is drying up at a rapid pace, recently hitting a seven-year low at 3.12 million BTC.
As BTC’s supply tumbles sharply, the cryptocurrency is trading in the low $110,000 range, indicating a delicate balance between falling active circulating supply and growing institutional demand.
Latest on-chain data shows that demand for BTC from long-term holders’ addresses has been steadily rising. Over the past 30 days, long-term investors have accumulated 373,700 BTC.
Long-term investors accumulating BTC during the latest dip shows that there is sufficient market demand for the flagship cryptocurrency despite a volatile crypto market. Arab Chain remarked that the market is currently in a “quiet accumulation” phase ahead of a potential breakout.
The CryptoQuant analyst emphasized that the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (LIR) has crashed to around 8.3 months, suggesting that current market liquidity covers less than nine months’ worth of demand – confirming the rapid depletion in BTC’s sellable supply.
For the uninitiated, the LIR measures the balance between available liquidity and active trading demand in the market, showing whether market makers are providing sufficient depth relative to recent trade volume. A high LIR suggests ample liquidity and stable price movement, while a low LIR indicates thinner order books and higher vulnerability to volatility or slippage.
The medium-term outlook for BTC looks bullish, due to a combination of declining liquidity and growing demand from institutional and long-term investors. Arab Chain added:
If this trend continues through the end of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin’s price could surpass $115,000, especially if accompanied by rising buying flows from US investment funds and ETFs, supporting the continuation of the current bullish trend.
BTC Top Not In Yet
While some analysts predict that BTC may have already peaked this market cycle, others are confident that the top cryptocurrency is yet to hit its cycle high. Recent on-chain data indicates that BTC NVT Golden Cross is yet to enter the territory that marked previous cycle tops.
Similarly, fellow CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA predicted that there is a 55% chance that Bitcoin has not yet topped for the current market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $111,295, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin stayed range-bound into 08:00 UTC on OCt. 25 as volume spiked on a defense of support and sellers capped rallies near the top of the recent corridor.
Rumble is making good on its CEO’s year-old vision, evolving from a video hub into a nascent digital economy where content and cryptocurrency merge, offering a tangible use case for Bitcoin as a direct payment method. On Oct. 24, the…
According to software engineer Vincent Van Code, fresh practical reasons are emerging for renewed confidence in XRP among some developers and investors. He argues that the biggest barrier to big firms holding XRP directly isn’t price or interest — it’s operations and compliance.
Custody Costs Stall Direct Holdings
Van Code told followers that big companies can’t just “set up a Ledger or Xumm wallet and drop $100 million in there.” He said institutions need formal custody arrangements, regular audits and compliance systems before they will touch crypto on a large scale.
Reports place the upkeep of those services at about $300,000 a year for a single institutional setup, a figure that helps explain why many firms prefer not to hold tokens on their own balance sheets.
What I am realizing with the bew @evernorthxrp announcement and stagnant XRP price is that it might be harder than we think for institutions to buy and hold XRP.
Large companies aren’t going to simply setup a Ledger or Xaman wallet and drop $100M in there.
Based on reports, Van Code believes that exchange-traded funds and public companies that hold XRP will be the easiest route for institutions to gain exposure.
There are currently seven applications for XRP ETFs pending with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, though filings have been paused amid the US government shutdown.
For many large investors, buying shares in a regulated fund or a company with an XRP treasury avoids the need to run custody systems in-house.
Evernorth has become a focal point in that discussion. The venture, backed in part by Ripple, plans to build what it calls an institutional XRP treasury.
Evernorth aims to purchase $1 billion worth of XRP and will start with over 560 million XRP after it secures $1.1 billion in committed capital from participants that include Ripple and SBI Holdings.
Reports say the firm is pursuing a merger that is expected to close in Q1 2026, and the XRP purchases are planned to take place within 10 days of funding.
JUST IN: A Hyperliquid whale has opened a MASSIVE $1M XRP long position with 10x leverage at $2.40
Market activity indicates that certain traders are making considerable wagers on the near-term trajectory of XRP. Reports identified a sizable position in the Hyperliquid derivatives exchange where an anonymous trader made a $1,000,000 long position with an entry price of $2.409, representing 416,736 tokens.
The position was put on with 10x exposure, and the community figure of Xaif helped to highlight the trade this week. Positions like this typically indicate short-term bullish sentiment from traders, although they can also cause increased price swings.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
Pantera Capital founder and CEO Dan Morehead argues the core driver of this cycle remains the same “one trade” uniting macro and crypto: fiat debasement pushing capital into scarce, higher-beta assets. In a wide-ranging conversation with Real Vision’s Raoul Pal, the pair frame the current rally—and what comes next—through the lens of policy error, structural deficits, sticky inflation, and the slow-rolling migration of institutional and sovereign portfolios into digital assets.
The Debasement Trade Powers The Crypto Bull Run
Morehead’s starting point is blunt: “We have full employment. Inflation is debasing our assets by 3% a year… and they’re cutting rates. Like, it’s crazy.” He calls 2020–2021 “a policy error”—“there was a time where inflation was 8%, and the Fed Funds rate was zero”—and says easing into today’s backdrop “when everything’s booming” undermines the monetary check on “record fiscal deficits.” The consequence, he argues, is that price levels across real assets look high not because they are rallying independently, but because the denominator is falling: “It’s the price of paper money that’s plummeting.”
Pal extends the frame to a single macro factor. “We use [Global Macro Investor’s] total global liquidity index as our benchmark for debasement. The Nasdaq, since 2012, has a 97.5% correlation, and Bitcoin is about 90%.” In his words, “None of it matters. It’s all one trade.” The implication is a regime where liquidity and debasement overwhelm the usual cross-asset nuance: “It’s the greatest macro trade of all time.”
That regime, in Morehead’s view, also explains why adoption keeps broadening. The pair note how the “debasement trade” has migrated from crypto-native circles into bank research. “JP Morgan’s talking about it. And I got an email from Goldman today, the debasement trade,” Morehead says. “I’ve been talking about it for 12 years.” Pal adds that even large banks “openly” talk about currency debasement now, while clients are being offered wider access to crypto exposure.
The wedge, they contend, remains institutional under-allocation. “How can you have a bubble nobody owns?” Morehead asks. “The median institutional investor’s exposure to crypto and blockchain ventures is literally 0.0.” Asked where steady-state allocation could land, he points to “8 or 10” percent over time, echoing Pal’s observation that many family offices that start at 2% “end up being 20% really fast” as price action mechanically increases weightings and conviction follows.
Morehead also sees policy politics and geopolitics accelerating adoption. He argues the US election reset a regulatory headwind—“we went from… aggressively negative… to being extremely positive”—unlocking public pensions and sovereign funds that “got scared away in 2022” after the FTX/Luna/Celsius cascade and high-profile enforcement cases.
He goes further, sketching a sovereign “arms race” for reserve Bitcoin: US holdings via seizures, “roughly the same” in China, and GCC states “aggressively getting into the blockchain space,” with room for acquisitions “tiny compared to balance sheets.” In his phrasing, if multiple blocs each target million-coin stockpiles, supply dynamics could “squeeze up like a watermelon seed.”
Why This Crypto Bull Run Extends Into 2026
If liquidity and adoption anchor the bull case, both still respect crypto’s cyclicality. Morehead has modeled four-year dynamics around halvings and says Pantera’s prior cycle targets hit with eerie precision: “We forecast… Bitcoin would hit $118,542 on August 11th, 2025. And it did… one day [early].” He also notes past peaks coincided with celebratory “events”—the 2017 CME futures listing and 2021 Coinbase direct listing—followed by ~85% drawdowns.
Yet he argues “this time” may be meaningfully extended by the policy and allocation backdrop: “The regulatory changes in the US, I think just trump everything… I think the next six to 12 months are still a big rally.” Pal, while acknowledging the internet’s penchant for hanging forecasters, concurs: “I think it’s going to extend.”
The social dimension of adoption runs through the conversation. Debasement’s distributional effects have made housing and rents the stickiest CPI components—“35% of [core CPI] is shelter,” Morehead says—pushing younger cohorts toward hard assets. Meanwhile, the “virality rate of crypto is like 95%,” he claims: “you get a smart person… to think about it for an hour, they’re all like, ‘Oh yeah, I should buy some crypto.’”
Evangelists matter, too: “Michael Saylor has done a great job. He has Messianic following… Tom Lee [on ETH]… We’re gonna endeavor to do that on Solana.” Visibility through ETFs, DATs, and media segments pulls newcomers into the funnel, where small initial slices tend to scale. As Pal puts it, investors who lack exposure feel “like you’re short the upside calls.”
I love it when technology, crypto, and macro come together in someone’s journey… and there’s no one better than my dear friend @dan_pantera, an OG in the space! Please enjoy pic.twitter.com/ShZAd2tB3u
For all the optimism, the macro warning lights stay on in the background: structural US deficits “literally in the best of times,” a monetary-fiscal loop trapped between refinancing needs and price stability, and a demographic drag on productivity that leaves AI-driven gains still ahead of the curve. “Debasing your fiat currency against everybody else’s fiat currency is a race to the bottom,” Morehead cautions. In that world, gold and crypto function as life rafts: “That’s why everything’s at record prices… except for paper money.”
Both men close by zooming out. The internet is “53 years old and they’re still doing cool internet companies,” Morehead says; Bitcoin turning 17 means the asset class remains a teenager. The majority of institutions “still have 0.0” exposure. If the “one trade” persists—liquidity up, fiat down, adoption rising—then the path of least resistance, in their telling, still points higher.
Or as Morehead compresses the thesis into a single line: “If you hold crypto for four or five years, I think it’s like 90% that you make money… It is that simple.”
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.7 trillion.
Reports have disclosed a 400% rise in stablecoin transfers on Ethereum over the last 30 days, pushing total transfer volume to $581 billion and more than 12.5 million transfers, according to Token Terminal.
The stablecoin market cap on Ethereum now tops $163 billion. At the same time, Ethereum has fallen about 4.50% in the past week, and briefly tested support near $3,738, which some traders called a buying opportunity.
Whales Step In With Large Buys
On-chain trackers show heavy buying from large holders. A newly created wallet, 0x86Ed, spent $32 million to pick up 8,491 ETH in roughly three hours, based on Arkham Intelligence records.
Another high-profile account monitored by LookOnChain moved 284K USDC into Hyperliquid after recent liquidations, apparently to maintain long exposure to ETH.
Reports say October’s stablecoin transaction volume on Ethereum passed $1.91 trillion for the second time on record, a sign that big flows are still moving through the network.
USDT usage on Ethereum is at an all-time high, with key metrics up ~400% from Sep ’23 lows.
Monthly transfer volume in September was $580.9 billion & transfer count 12.5 million.
CryptoQuant and exchange data point to a rise in institutional interest. CME futures open interest for ETH has climbed, suggesting larger players are setting positions ahead of a potential price move.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee was cited saying ETH could head toward $5,000 if the ETH/BTC ratio clears the 0.087 resistance. Matt Sheffield, CIO at Sharplink Gaming, told analysts that past liquidations did not stop real use and that the scale of payments on legacy systems — SWIFT processes about $150T a year — shows how much room exists for stablecoins to grow on Ethereum.
Big money is flowing into #Ethereum institutional interest is clearly rising fast….
The surge in CME futures open interest signals that smart money is gearing up for a major $ETH move ahead… pic.twitter.com/8oUfApDeoP
Technical analysis experts have noted a confluence of indicators near today’s prices. Currently, ETH is trading near $3887, just above the significant Fibonacci retracement of 0.618 at $3781.
The 0.786 retracement is near $3,640 with the level of formal invalidation set at $3443. Some technicians have pointed to a triple bottom trading pattern around $3600, as well as the potential for a new accumulation reading from a Wycoff re-accumulation pattern which could lead to higher targets (notably $5125 at the 1.618 extension.
Balance Between Flow And Risk
In sum, with heavy stablecoin flow, whale buying, and increasing interest in futures, this has created a basis for bullish calls into the $5000 range.
That said, chart patterns fail, on-chain movements may not lead to changes in price, and traders who remain cognizant of the ETH/BTC ratio, the invalidation line at $3443, and whether large transactions are transferring or being used for longer-term custody, may get more clarity in the coming sessions.
Featured image from Motion Island, chart from TradingView
SpaceX has again transferred Bitcoin worth millions of dollars to news wallets, with $134 million in the flagship cryptocurrency moved on Friday, October 24. Onchain data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham shows a wallet linked to the aerospace company, which…
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program may soon come to an end. Strategists at JPMorgan and the Bank of America believe that the central bank will stop shrinking its roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, bringing an end to the Fed quantitative tightening.
According to a recent Bloomberg report, these Wall Street giants have moved up their QT program predictions due to a surge in dollar funding costs. They initially anticipated the move in December or early 2026.
JPMorgan Predicts Fed Quantitative Tightening End
JPMorgan and Bank of America strategists predict that the development will occur this month, effectively ending the $6.6 trillion balance sheet unwind from the Federal Reserve.
The Fed QT program, a large and influential market factor since it began in 2022, allows the Fed’s balance sheet of $6.6 trillion to be reduced without replacing maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to gradually remove excess liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation and achieve economic stability. However, with rising borrowing costs in repo and funding markets, concerns are growing about reserve scarcity in the banking system.
In a client note, Bank of America’s Mark Cabana and Katie Craig wrote, “Money markets at current or higher levels should signal to the Fed that reserves are no longer ‘abundant.’” They urged to “cut the crap before things snap.”
At the same time, JPMorgan strategist Teresa Ho noted that markets have become increasingly frictional, highlighting the Fed’s dwindling reverse repo facility as a key warning sign. “Markets have been operating with much more friction,” noted the strategist. This development has led TD Securities and Wrightson ICAP to revise their expectations for the end of quantitative tightening to October. However, Barclays and Goldman Sachs anticipate a slightly later conclusion to the runoff.
Several other Wall Street analysts, including those from Wrightson ICAP, Evercore ISI, and Jefferies, also predict that the Federal Reserve will conclude its QT program by the end of October.
What the Fed Says?
Notably, the central bank chair, Jerome Powell, indicated that the balance sheet reduction is likely to conclude when reserves reach a level “somewhat above” what’s considered ample, aiming to prevent market disruptions. He added, “We may approach that point in the coming months.” This suggests the bank is nearing the end of the Fed quantitative tightening program.
Another noteworthy event the market is watching closely in the wake of the QT program is whether the Fed will do anything about interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, scheduled for October 28-29. Powell and some others have mentioned the possibility of rate cuts at previous meetings.
But it is uncertain if a rate cuts may occur at the FOMC meeting, as the government shutdown has now entered the 23rd day with no signs of resolution. The lack of major data releases, starting with the jobs report among others, is putting the Federal Reserve in a challenging position.
How Will This Impact Bitcoin and Crypto?
If the Fed stops QT, liquidity would dry up, and we would experience a monetary loosening that would bring forth more investment, lower Treasury yields, and demand risk assets like Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin has performed well during QE periods and poorly during QT periods. For instance, during QE from 2020-2021, Bitcoin moved from $7,000 to $69,000. However, once QT began in 2022, as liquidity was tightening, Bitcoin moved from $47,000 down to $15,000. Now, many analysts believe that if the Fed quantitative tightening were to go away, there is a possibility that fresh inflows into Bitcoin may rise and the price may surge.
Fed Quantitative Tightening to Boost Bitcoin Price
According to the long-standing analyst Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin has been trapped in a sideways move between $100,000 $120,000 in the last six months, which indicates that it is likely going to create a major break either way. Additionally, he expects the next movements of the currency to come from the FOMC meeting, potential rate cuts in the future, and monetary policy changes.
Conclusion
The expected cessation of the Fed’s quantitative tightening and the possible cuts in rates will be a strong factor for the inflow of liquidity into the financial system, raising the risk appetite that in turn might drive the prices of Bitcoin higher.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program entail? The QT program is the Fed’s major action of the decade, where its asset holding is reduced by $6.6 trillion thereby balancing and normalizing the dollar’s liquidity in the global financial system as a measure to fight inflation.
How could the cessation of QT impact Bitcoin in any way? The cessation of QT could increase the financial system’s liquidity and thereby turn investors towards higher risk assets. This could result in an increase in the price of Bitcoin.
Glossary
Quantitative Tightening: It is a central bank action to reduce its balance sheet by selling or not rolling over securities, thus resulting in a decrease of the monetary base in the financial system.
Quantitative Easing: A central bank action that enlarges its balance sheet by purchasing securities leading to a monetary base increase in the financial system.
Federal Reserve: The U.S.A. central bank that has the ultimate power to decide the money supply and control the banking industry.
Balance Sheet: A financial report showing the assets, liabilities, and equity of a company or, in this case, the Federal Reserve.
FOMC Meeting: A gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee, which decides on the money supply, interest rates, and hence opining on the central bank’s position regarding quantitative easing or tightening.
What could be the driving force behind the sharp outflow, despite Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experiencing a $619 million inflow only a few days ago?
Analysts are concerned about a fading momentum in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which has led to mass investor outflows. After a combined inflow of at least $619 million last Tuesday, signaling investor confidence, the energy faded the following day, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recording significant outflows.
A Sense of Fear Prevails in the Market
According to data from Fairside, BlackRock’s IBIT led the outflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with over $100 million exiting the market. This was followed by other ETFs, including Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, and Invesco, that recorded smaller inflows that may have helped soften the overall decline. It’s worth noting that the outflows from the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs occurred when BTC briefly surged past $111K before retreating to around $108K early Tuesday.
Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, were also under pressure, recording $145.7M in outflows, extending a three-day streak of withdrawals. According to most analysts, the trend indicates that investors were treading cautiously, balancing short-term price swings and were concerned about broader market volatility.
The optimism experienced earlier in the week proved short-lived, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows. Total withdrawals peaked at $120 million, with Bitcoin funds losing $101.29 million and Ethereum ETFs shedding $18.77 million. Currently, the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 27, indicating that fear prevails.
Investor Confidence Fluctuating
The cautious mood is reflected in the continued outflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs despite prices inching higher. For some reason, investors are hesitant to make any firm commitments due to uncertainty about the market’s short-term direction.
While the general market trend shows active investor interest in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the sentiment keeps fluctuating. The strong rebound on Tuesday shows how quickly capital can flow when investors are confident, while the pullback on Wednesday shows that traders remain cautious.
Conclusion
The latest activity in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs comes hot on the heels of mixed performance in the broader cryptocurrency market. Historically, when spot prices rebound, investor confidence flows suggest that institutional traders may still be wary of potential price corrections.
Unlike the spot market, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs may react more slowly due to associated fund mechanics, investor reporting schedules, and capital reallocation strategies. The ongoing pullback in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggests that crypto investment products may behave differently from their underlying tokens.
Glossary to Key Terms
ETFs: Cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) track the price performance of cryptocurrencies by investing in a portfolio linked to their instruments, which can be traded on regular stock exchanges, and investors can hold them in their standard brokerage accounts.
ETF Inflows: Fund flow measures the cash moving into and out of financial assets over specific time periods, often used to understand investor sentiment. Net inflow can signal investor optimism or caution in the market.
ETF Outflows: When ETF shares are converted into the component securities, this is referred to as ETF outflow. ETFs depend on the effectiveness of the arbitrage mechanism for their share prices to track net asset value.
Market rebound: In the world of stocks, a rebound is a period in which prices rise after a prior decline or bearish phase.
Frequently Asked Questions about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
What happened to crypto ETFs on Wednesday?
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs experienced severe outflows they losing $101 million and $19 million, respectively.
Which Bitcoin ETFs were most affected?
The most significant casualties of the outflows were Grayscale’s GBTC, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Ark’s ARKB, which reversed Tuesday’s gains.
Which funds record inflows despite the downturn?
According to available data, BlackRock’s IBIT and ETHA continued to attract strong investor interest despite the ongoing outflows.
What does this mean for the crypto market outlook?
The midweek pullback in crypto ETFs signals that investors were treading cautiously amid ongoing market volatility.
JPMorgan Chase plans to let institutional clients use Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as collateral for loans by the end of 2025, according to a Bloombergreport.
The new program, expected to roll out globally, will rely on a third-party custodian to safeguard pledged assets. The bank already allows crypto-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as collateral, but this expansion would enable clients to borrow against their direct crypto holdings.
The shift could make it easier for institutions to access liquidity without selling long-term digital asset positions — a use case that has gained traction among hedge funds and family offices.
The development represents a broader acceptance of digital assets across the financial sector. Other major banks, including Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, State Street, and Fidelity, have been expanding crypto custody and trading services amid increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. and abroad.
JPMorgan first began exploring lending against Bitcoin in 2022 but the project was delayed, according to Bloomberg.
Jamie Dimon’s changing tone on crypto
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has long been one of crypto’s most vocal skeptics, previously calling Bitcoin a “fraud” and a “pet rock.” In 2023, he said he was “deeply opposed” to Bitcoin and claimed it was used mainly for illicit activity.
However, his tone has recently softened. “I don’t think we should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke,” Dimon said earlier this year. “I defend your right to buy Bitcoin, go at it.”
In 2023, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he was "deeply opposed" to Bitcoin and that it was for criminals.
Today, JPMorgan plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral. pic.twitter.com/WMPg8qy9UW
Despite Dimon’s reservations, JPMorgan has steadily increased its crypto exposure. The bank has launched the J.P. Morgan Deposit Token (JPMD) — a blockchain-based alternative to stablecoins — and expanded its Kinexys blockchain network, which now processes more than $2 billion in daily transactions across carbon markets, supply chain finance, and cross-border payments.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rise
Following the news, Bitcoin rose in the past 24 hours to trade above $111,000, while Ethereum gained 2% to hover just below $4,000, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
Back in July, JPMorganChase and Coinbase announced a strategic partnership to make Bitcoin and crypto access easier for their customers.
The deal included a direct bank-to-wallet connection, the ability to redeem Chase Ultimate Rewards points for crypto, and credit card funding for Coinbase accounts. Both the bank-to-wallet and rewards features were set to launch in 2026.
TradFi giant JPMorgan is reportedly planning to allow its institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral some time within this year. According to a report by Bloomberg, JPMorgan will start allowing their institutional clients to use Bitcoin…
After months of steady gains, BTC is slipping below key cost-basis levels as long-term holders sell into strength and traders retreat to defensive derivatives.
The offering, developed with non-custodial BTC lending startup Debifi, targets institutions and high-net worth borrowers who don't want to give up control of their assets.
The release of September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 3.1% rise in the cost of living from a year earlier, the highest in 18 months, according to FactSet.
Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, NFTs, Web3 and crypto regulation.
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