Every now and then, an opinion piece comes along that feels more like a rush to capitalize on the latest headline than a serious football analysis.

One local blog’s recent claim that Brad Holmes should be on the hot seat because of the Detroit Lions’ 2024 draft class falls squarely into that category.

Yes, the Terrion Arnold situation is a disaster for the organization. There is no sugarcoating that. If Arnold is ultimately no longer part of Detroit’s future, it will go down as one of the biggest disappointments of Brad Holmes’ tenure.

But using Arnold’s off field legal troubles as evidence that Holmes suddenly deserves to be on the hot seat ignores nearly everything we’ve learned about roster building over the last four years.

Brad Holmes Didn’t Miss on the Football Player

There is an important distinction that the author either overlooks or chooses to ignore.

Terrion Arnold wasn’t released because he couldn’t play football.

He wasn’t cut because he couldn’t cover receivers.

He wasn’t waived because he failed to develop.

He was removed from the roster because of an off field legal situation that no NFL evaluator could reasonably project during the 2024 NFL Draft process.

If a player is released because of criminal allegations that surface years after he is drafted, that is not remotely the same thing as drafting a player who simply cannot play.

Those are two entirely different conversations.

Two Years Is Far Too Soon

The writer also labels the entire 2024 draft class a failure after just two NFL seasons.

That simply isn’t how roster evaluation works.

Christian Mahogany (6th Round Pick) has already shown he belongs in the NFL and remains a legitimate contender for a starting role.

Mekhi Wingo (6th Round Pick) has not done much up to this point to prove he belongs on the Lions 53-man roster, but my prediction is that he will find a way to make it heading into the 2026 season.

Ennis Rakestraw (2nd Round Pick) battled injuries that slowed his development, something that happens across the league every season. He is finally healthy, and he will have a chance to show what he can do this coming season.

Giovanni Manu (4th Round Pick) was widely viewed as a developmental prospect from the day Detroit selected him. Brad Holmes himself repeatedly explained that Manu would require patience before contributing. Personally, I have hated this pick from the moment it was announced. Swing and a miss for Brad on this one.

Sione Vaki (4th Round Pick) continues to provide value on special teams while transitioning to an entirely new position after playing safety in college. There is also a good chance that he will be the Lions’ No. 3 running back in 2026.

None of those stories have been fully written.

Brad Holmes Has Earned the Benefit of the Doubt

This is where the writer’s argument really falls apart.

Brad Holmes has assembled one of the NFL’s best young rosters, and the pillars of the roster have come via the NFL Draft.

Since arriving in Detroit, Holmes has drafted or acquired players such as Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Alim McNeill, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph, Malcolm Rodriguez, Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge, while also making key veteran additions that helped transform the Lions into contenders.

He inherited a franchise that had won exactly one playoff game since 1957.

Within four seasons, Detroit won back to back NFC North championships, reached the NFC Championship Game, and became one of the NFL’s premier organizations.

That résumé, even if the 2024 Draft class is not Holmes’ best work, does not resemble a general manager on the hot seat.

Injuries Weren’t an Excuse. They Were Reality

Perhaps the most puzzling part of the writer’s column is dismissing injuries as something people “lazily blame.”

The Lions weren’t simply banged up.

They were devastated.

Detroit have lost multiple starters on defense for significant stretches, including arguably the NFL’s best pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson. Several other key contributors missed extensive time as the defense was forced to shuffle personnel almost weekly.

Pretending that didn’t affect the outcome of the season isn’t analysis.

It’s ignoring reality.

If Holmes Deserves Criticism, Make the Right Argument

Brad Holmes is not above criticism.

Every general manager has draft misses.

Every front office has decisions that deserve scrutiny.

If someone wants to argue Holmes reached for a prospect, missed on player evaluation, or should have addressed another position, those are legitimate football discussions.

But claiming he should be on the hot seat because a first-round pick is involved in serious legal trouble years after being drafted is a completely different argument, and one that simply doesn’t hold up.

The Bottom Line

The Terrion Arnold situation is painful for the Lions.

It hurts the roster.

It hurts the franchise.

It hurts Brad Holmes’ draft record.

But it does not erase one of the most successful roster rebuilds the NFL has seen in recent memory.

Brad Holmes deserves to be judged on the football decisions he makes and the results they produce over time, not on unforeseeable off field events that no scouting department could have reasonably predicted.

Calling for Holmes to be on the hot seat because of the 2024 draft class is not thoughtful analysis.

It’s a hot take chasing an even hotter headline.