The Bears were one slightly better throw away from a one-point game with 20 seconds left in Green Bay in Week 14. Instead, Caleb Williams’ twisting attempted floater for tight end Cole Kmet on fourth-and-1 was intercepted, ending the game and the Bears’ short-lived reign atop the NFC.

Two weeks later, the Bears find themselves in familiar territory — atop the NFC North with a shot to grab a stranglehold on the division in a potentially monumental matchup against the Packers.

For as familiar as the territory might seem, the team they’ll face on Saturday is hardly the same one the Bears saw earlier in December.

Game-wrecking pass rusher Micah Parsons is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a torn ACL in Week 15 against the Denver Broncos.

Parsons was credited with two quarterback hits and drew one holding call against Bears right tackle Darnell Wright in Week 14. His absence, however, doesn’t mean the Packers’ defense can be taken lightly.

“They have some high-caliber players throughout, on the defensive line, the linebacking core and on the back end,” Ben Johnson said on Tuesday. “Just because one player goes down, that doesn’t mean that this is going to change a whole lot for them. They play relentless football. They pursue. They have a ton of team speed. The linebackers are thumpers. If you ask your backs to pick them up in protection one too many times, they’re going to find a way to get to your quarterback.”

But it’s not just Parsons who could be missing due to injury in Week 16.

Receiver Christian Watson, who left last week’s loss to the Broncos in an ambulance with a shoulder and chest injury, is angling to suit up on Saturday, dependent on medical clearance. Running back Josh Jacobs (knee) and right tackle Zach Tom (knee) also haven’t participated in practice this week and will be game-time decisions.

The injury report hasn’t been kind to the Bears, either.

They’ll be without receivers Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden III (ankle). Running back D’Andre Swift is also questionable after popping up on Wednesday’s report with a groin injury.

So much for the familiarity of a recent opponent.

That brings us to our predictions for Week 16:

Adam Hoge

2025 record: 11-3

The Bears left Lambeau Field less than two weeks ago knowing they let one get away. Offensively, they started too slow. Defensively, they gave up too many big plays. All of the mistakes were correctable. Now they face a Packers team gutted by the loss of Micah Parsons, which more than tilts this in the Bears’ favor. They’ll be shorthanded at wide receiver with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out, but the Bears had more success with two tight ends on the field in the first game against Green Bay anyway. Soldier Field should be rocking Saturday night and it just feels like they’ll take care of business against their rival.

Bears 31, Packers 24

[READ | Hoge: Why the Bears’ threat to move to Indiana is more than a bluff]

Adam Jahns

2025 record: 10-4

The Packers should show some resilience after losing Micah Parsons. But how long will that fight last against the Bears? Ben Johnson will rely on his offensive line to wear down the Packers again. It almost worked in their first meeting. This time, Caleb Williams completes the big throws down the field that were missed, too. The next step for Johnson’s Bears is beating the Packers.

Bears 27, Packers 23

[READ | Why center Drew Dalman is so important to the Bears’ success on offense]

Mark Carman

2025 record: 10-4

Put up or shut up for the Bears. Caleb Williams said earlier this week that the Bears let the Packers off the hook. Perhaps. More accurately, the Bears played a poor first half and still had a chance to win. And the Packers lost Micah Parsons. No Rome and Luther hurts but I think the Bears get enough from DJ and company along with the run game to send Soldier Field (never leaving) into pandemonium.

Bears 23, Packers 20

Greg Braggs Jr.

2025 record: 10-4

Bears and Packers both dealing with a litany of injuries but the Bears seem focused to make up for Round 1. Round 2 goes to Ben Johnson and company.

Biggest question will there be a Round 3?

Bears 28, Packers 24

Corey Wootton

2025 record: 9-5

Tough, hard-fought game, Bears start fast and keep the momentum offensively without Parsons. Tough loss for the Packers. Offense is trending in the right direction. In Ben Johnson We Trust!

Bears 31, Packers 24

Jerry Azumah

2025 record: 9-5

Bears 27, Packers 24

Patrick Norton

2025 record: 8-6

The first matchup nearly came down to a two-point conversion. This one’s a “pick ’em” in just about every sportsbook you can find. I don’t blame the oddsmakers. Still, this comes down to the pressure each defensive front can generate. Will the Packers be able to recreate Micah Parsons’ impact in the aggregate? Can Austin Booker build off of last week’s career performance? This will be a dogfight between two of the best teams in the entire league. I’m giving the edge to the home crowd in a nail-biter.

Bears 25, Packers 24

Lance Briggs

2025 record: 8-6

TBD

Stephen Nicholas

2025 record: 6-8

Bears 31, Packers 17