Cantonese Cat used his October 28 video to zero in on the Dogecoin market structure, arguing that the meme-coin is nearing the end of a multi-year accumulation phase—and that the recent washout was a feature, not a bug, of that process. While he declined to publish numeric price targets in the video, he made the case that DOGE’s setup is maturing in lockstep with broader “risk-on” signals, with a familiar lag to Ethereum that historically precedes Dogecoin’s larger moves.
When Will Dogecoin Rally Again?
On structure, he was explicit. “Just looking at Doge here, you can see how […] Doge has been forming a cup over here for close to four and a half, five years now […] it’s just been building a big giant base.” In his read, the rounded bottom is the defining pattern of this cycle for DOGE, and it remains intact despite recent volatility.
He framed the sharp drawdown two weeks ago as necessary positioning rather than a break in trend: “You just had a great deleveraging event […] I’m not going to look at a lower low and think the trend is broken […] These are very healthy deleveraging before the next move up as far as I’m concerned.” He highlighted “a big giant wick” and “a lot of demand down below,” pointing to what he sees as resilient spot support through the base.
Timing, not targets, was the centerpiece. He reiterated that Dogecoin typically follows Ethereum with a delay once ETH clears its own major resistance bands. “Whenever we get closer to the end of the rounded bottom […] that’s when Ethereum breaks out above the resistance zone and goes up a lot higher. Thus, Doge runs together with Ethereum,” he said, adding: “There is a lag. I would say the lag is probably maybe a couple months between Ethereum breaking up and Doge finally breaking above this rounded bottom here and going up.”
He made a similar observation using risk proxies, noting that DOGE moves have historically trailed small-cap-led risk cycles by several months, though he cautioned that the exact interval can vary. Via X, he added “DOGE lags behind IWM [iShares Russell 2000 ETF] all-time-high breakout by about 2 to 4 months before it takes off.”
Cantonese Cat also pushed back on the view that a sequence of lower lows automatically invalidates the DOGE setup, arguing that this occurred in prior cycles just before outsized rallies. “A lot of people look at this, ‘that’s a lower low […] the cycle is over.’ Well, it doesn’t work that way. That’s a lower low right there. Next thing you know, it just went a lot higher,” he said, tying the observation to the current “healthy deleveraging” and the persistence of the rounded-bottom structure.
If the video offered the structural blueprint, his same-day post on X clarified his stance on headline targets. “I realize that it’s stupid to call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when price is at 20 cents. If I was smart like others, I should just call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when it’s $2 or $4.” The comment is consistent with his prior price predictions.
Inside the video update, the analyst instead emphasized the sequence he expects to matter—ETH strength first, DOGE follow-through second, with the magnitude determined by how far the broader risk cycle runs once momentum rotates.
Dogecoin struggled to rise above $0.210 and corrected some gains against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might decline below $0.1980.
DOGE price started a fresh downside correction below $0.2035.
The price is trading below the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
There was a break below a contracting triangle with support at $0.20 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The price could aim for a fresh increase if it remains stable above $0.1940.
Dogecoin Price Starts Another Pullback
Dogecoin price started a fresh increase after it settled above $0.1920, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE climbed above the $0.20 resistance to enter a positive zone.
The bulls were able to push the price above $0.2020 and $0.2050. A high was formed at $0.2094 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.1843 swing low to the $0.2094 high.
Besides, there was a break below a contracting triangle with support at $0.20 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
If there is another increase, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.2020 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.2050 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.210 level. A close above the $0.210 resistance might send the price toward $0.2150. Any more gains might send the price toward $0.2250. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2320.
More Losses In DOGE?
If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.2020 level, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.1970 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.1843 swing low to the $0.2094 high. The next major support is near the $0.1935 level.
The main support sits at $0.190. If there is a downside break below the $0.190 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.1840 level or even $0.1780 in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level.
The Dogecoin weekly chart is flashing a cluster of technically constructive signals, according to crypto analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), who published a four-panel weekly read on DOGE on Oct. 27. Price is currently hovering near $0.208 on Binance spot, and the setup he highlights pivots on four independent checks: the cycle-high anchored VWAP, Ichimoku “Katana” support, a 0.5 log-scale Fibonacci hold, and conspicuously light sell-side volume during the recent drawdown.
4 Reason To Be Bullish On Dogecoin
In his post, Cantonese Cat wrote: “Attempting to reclaim cycle high AVWAP as support. Claiming Ichimoku Tenkan + Kijun fusion (blue and red lines fused together), AKA Katana, as support so far. Holding 0.5 log fib from cycle high–cycle low as support so far. There’s been no volume so far during this downturn on multiple exchanges including Coinbase and Binance, and all it takes is just some volume to come in and we could reverse any downtrend in a hurry.”
On the anchored VWAP chart, the teal line measured from Dogecoin’s cycle peak tracks the market’s volume-weighted cost basis since the 2021 top. DOGE is pressing that band from above/at parity, attempting to convert it into support after a failed breakdown earlier this month.
On a weekly basis, closing and subsequently holding above the cycle-high AVWAP tilts risk-reward positively because it implies the marginal participant who bought since the peak is no longer underwater. Notably, the most recent weekly wick that probed below the band—printing a sharp stab toward the low-$0.09s—was retraced swiftly, with subsequent candles clustering back around ~$0.21. That rejection of lower prices right at the anchored VWAP argues against sustained distribution at current levels.
The Ichimoku frame reinforces the same idea. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are fused around ~$0.2009 on the weekly (a configuration the analyst labels “Katana”), and price is currently riding that confluence as support. The cloud (Senkou span) remains red and overhead, spanning roughly the $0.24s into the ~$0.29 region, which defines the near-term supply zone that would need to be cleared on a weekly close to confirm trend resumption.
Until then, the Katana acting as a shelf at ~$0.20 is the near line in the sand; lose it decisively and the bias flips back to testing deeper supports, but sustain it and the path of least resistance shifts to re-engaging the cloud’s lower boundary.
Fibonacci context adds precision to those levels. Measured log-scale from the cycle high to the cycle low, DOGE has so far defended the 0.5 retracement at $0.19070 on multiple weekly closes.
That 50% line is the pivot of the current structure: a confirmed weekly close and acceptance below would hand momentum to bears toward the 0.382 at $0.13847, while continued defense keeps the market pointed at successive retracement ceilings overhead—the 0.618 at $0.26261, the 0.707 at $0.33430, the 0.786 at $0.41416, and the 0.886 at $0.54318—before the full retrace to the cycle high marker around $0.73995.
Price has been oscillating in a broad $0.16–$0.27 corridor for months; sitting above the 0.5 while probing the AVWAP strengthens the case that the mid-$0.20s could be revisited if buyers can reclaim momentum.
Volume is the wild card—and the fourth reason the analyst cites for optimism. The weekly histogram across multiple years shows that persistent selloffs have been accompanied by contracting volume, with downward arrows on the chart denoting successive periods of declining activity into lows.
By contrast, the last major impulsive advance in late 2024 printed the cycle’s heaviest weekly turnover. The current downturn lacks that distribution signature; bins on Coinbase and Binance have thinned rather than expanded. In market-structure terms, falling volume on pullbacks is textbook corrective behavior, and it leaves the door open for a sharp reversal if/when demand returns.
Put together, the four lenses describe a market sitting on top of a stacked support cluster: the cycle-high AVWAP roughly at the current price, the Ichimoku Katana fused near ~$0.2009, and the 0.5 log Fibonacci at $0.19070 just below. The invalidation path is clear enough—a decisive weekly loss of the $0.19 handle would expose the $0.13847 (0.382) shelf—while the upside path is equally mapped: first reclaim the lower edge of the cloud in the low-$0.20s, then test $0.26261 (0.618), with any weekly close through that level shifting focus to $0.33430 and beyond.
Dogecoin’s higher-time-frame structure is starting to look constructive again. In a technical analysis posted on X, crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL noted that Dogecoin’s market cap has completed a build, and momentum is ready, pointing to a cup-and-handle breakout retest breakout on the monthly market-cap chart.
The chart he shared shows Dogecoin’s market cap hovering just under $30 billion, riding above its 25-month moving average with a gentle series of higher lows that has been developing since the 2022 bear market base.
Cup-And-Handle Breakout With A Convincing Retest
The chart shared by EtherNasyonaL looks at a cup-and-handle structure that has been developing on Dogecoin’s market cap chart for several years. The cup portion stretches across 2022 and 2023, a long and gradual recovery phase following Dogecoin’s blow-off peak in the 2021 bull market.
The handle is a narrowing consolidation under a descending resistance trendline that capped every attempt at recovery throughout the 2022/2023 bear market. Eventually, that resistance line was broken with a clean upward move in late 2024, confirming the first official breakout from the multi-year downtrend.
However, what makes this setup interesting is the successful retest of that same resistance line, now turned into support, where price action briefly dipped before bouncing again. This retest occurred mid-October, when the Dogecoin crashed to $0.15 very briefly.
The retest confirmed the breakout’s legitimacy, showing that Dogecoin traders defended the new support zone rather than allowing another breakdown. This kind of retest is known in technical analysis to lead to large directional moves, especially on higher timeframes where fewer false signals occur. EtherNasyonaL’s chart implies that Dogecoin has completed its build phase that lays the foundation for the next upward leg in its market cap.
Rising Bottoms And MA25 Support Strengthen Bullish Structure
Another important element of EtherNasyonaL’s analysis lies in the consistent pattern of higher lows visible on the chart. Dogecoin’s market cap has formed a rising base since mid-2023, where each correction has ended above the previous one.
Equally important is the 25-month moving average (MA25) that runs beneath the candles. This indicator has acted as a dynamic support level for much of Dogecoin’s higher-time-frame structure. EtherNasyonaL noted this indicator’s role as the trend backbone by pointing out that this support has “continued to hold the price.”
As it stands, Dogecoin is now trading well above this moving average. As long as the market cap remains above it, Dogecoin’s structure will continue to maintain its bullish integrity. Should momentum continue to build as the MACD line turns upward, as the chart suggests, the conditions could align for Dogecoin’s next expansion phase. The next expansion phase could take Dogecoin’s market cap above $100 billion, as projected in the chart above.
At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.20, with a market cap of $29.82 billion.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Hov has stated that the macro target for the Dogecoin price remains unchanged despite the recent crypto market crash. This comes as DOGE looks to reclaim the psychological $0.2 level, which could spark a significant rebound for the meme coin.
Macro Target For The Dogecoin Price Remains Above $2
In an X post, the crypto analyst stated that he still has the same macro target for the Dogecoin price. His accompanying chart showed DOGE could rally to $3 by next year, which would mark a new all-time high (ATH) for the altcoin. However, there is the possibility that the meme coin could keep trading sideways till the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Hov noted that the Dogecoin price action had played out as expected, with DOGE correcting off the low and crashing by over 50%. He added that the move did not quite make it into the lower support level, but that so far, the move off the low looks pretty corrective. The meme coin had crashed from a high of around $0.30 last month, recently touching $0.11 amid the crash that followed Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China.
Hov also stated that the focus will be on how the Dogecoin price action develops over the next week to see whether the C-wave corrective move is in. DOGE is currently looking to rebound and reclaim the psychological $0.2 level. This has been sparked by optimism regarding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China.
The White House has confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet China’s President Xi Jinping on October 30 at the APEC Summit. Meanwhile, the September CPI, which dropped yesterday, came in lower than expectations, which also contributed to a bounce in the Dogecoin price.
DOGE’s 3rd Bull Wave On The Horizon
Crypto analyst Ether revealed in an X post that the 3rd bull wave is on the horizon for the Dogecoin price. He noted that DOGE experienced two major bull waves in 2017 and 2021 and that another bull wave is now loading. The analyst broke down the current price action, which points to another bull wave.
Ether revealed that the long downtrend has been broken, with the retest now complete. He further remarked that the 25MA on the higher time frame is back at support. Meanwhile, the Dogecoin price is said to be gathering strength in the lower band of a years-long ascending channel. The analyst added that all technical indicators are “whispering” the start of a new cycle. As such, he believes the 3rd bull wave is a matter of when, not if.
At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.19, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
The popular meme-coin Dogecoin (DOGE) is under mounting stress after a 30 % drop from its September highs, yet a contrarian technical setup suggests that a rebound to the $1 level might still be in play.
While the current environment is dominated by selling pressure and low institutional interest, some chart patterns deserve a closer look.
From Crash to Compression: Dogecoin Under Pressure
Dogecoin’s price tumbled from around $0.3066 to approximately $0.198, marking a dramatic 30 % decline that has shaken short-term holders. On the technical front, DOGE broke below a consolidating upward wedge, and a “death cross” is looming as the 50-day EMA approaches a crossover beneath the 200-day.
Analysts warn this structure has historically signaled deeper losses. Support at $0.1515 is under watch (about 22 % below current levels), while a breakdown under $0.0570 could open the door to an extreme risk scenario (-90 %) riding on a bearish flag on the weekly chart.
Adding to the pressure, the recently-launched DOGE ETF saw only around $30.7 million in assets, far below rival products and suggesting weak institutional demand. The steep 1.5 % expense ratio further dampens its appeal.
Technical Setup: Danger Ahead, But Also Hope
Despite the gloom, Dogecoin exhibits some intriguing longer-term patterns that hint at the possibility of reversal. On one hand, momentum indicators, like MACD and MFI, point to weakening buying strength and growing dominance of sellers. This supports the near-term bearish case.
On the other hand, a long-term ascending channel since 2021 shows DOGE trading near its lower boundary, with the Stochastic RSI at historically low levels, similar to prior pre-rallies.
Analysts highlight that if DOGE can hold key support around $0.19 and break above resistance near $0.30, the path toward $0.50–$1 becomes more plausible. A key resistance point lies near $0.21, often referred to as a “supply wall” due to heavy prior accumulation.
Each time DOGE approaches the resistance level, selling pressure typically increases, causing repeated rejections. Thus, for DOGE to flip the narrative, a clean breakout above $0.21 coupled with volume would be critical.
What Comes Next? Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
In the short term, Dogecoin faces more likely downside or sideways action unless fresh buyer momentum emerges. But if support holds and a breakout occurs, the long-term technical structure suggests upside potential toward the $1 mark.
The scenario isn’t guaranteed, it requires a confirmed reversal, rising volume, and a shift in sentiment. For traders using the 15-minute and 5-minute timeframes (as you focus on), this means watching for a higher-timeframe close above $0.30, plus intra-day volume spikes. Absent that, caution remains justified.
Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart from Tradingview
Dogecoin is once again under pressure as bears tighten their hold, keeping the price pinned below key resistance levels. Despite the ongoing consolidation, one crucial support zone is beginning to show signs of strength, hinting that a potential reversal could be on the horizon if buyers step in at the right moment.
Momentum Hinges On RSI and BTC Dominance Levels
Umair Crypto, in his latest update on Dogecoin, noted that the meme coin is currently consolidating just beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), forming what appears to be a clear bearish setup. According to Umair, the structure suggests that the price could soon face rejection from this critical moving average, a move that may trigger a decline toward the $0.15 region, or potentially even lower if selling pressure intensifies.
Despite the bearish tone, Umair highlighted that the $0.15 zone remains a crucial area of interest for buyers. He explained that this region could act as a strong bounce zone if the expected rejection occurs, offering the bulls a chance to defend the key support and potentially ignite a recovery from oversold conditions.
On a more optimistic note, Umair pointed out that a recovery above the daily RSI trendline could change the short-term outlook for DOGE and fuel a move above the 200-day SMA, opening the door for renewed bullish momentum. However, Umair maintained a cautious stance for now until there’s a confirmed decline in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) below 59%. This shift would likely mark the beginning of a more sustainable upward phase, including Dogecoin.
Dogecoin Regains Stability After Recent Correction
In a more recent market update, BitGuru highlighted that Dogecoin is starting to display early signs of a potential recovery following its recent correction phase. After facing sustained downward pressure, the popular meme coin seems to be regaining some stability as its price action begins to level out.
BitGuru pointed out that DOGE has managed to hold firmly near a key support level despite recent volatility. This steady price action near the base suggests that buyers are gradually stepping back in, showing confidence in the asset’s long-term potential. The chart structure is beginning to curve upward, which often precedes a breakout or a notable shift in market sentiment
He further explained that if this early momentum continues to develop, Dogecoin could be preparing for a breakout toward the $0.22–$0.25 range. A successful move in that direction would mark a meaningful recovery from its previous decline and could spark renewed interest from traders.
Dogecoin price has been trading around the $0.19 level for days, with relatively little action in the market. The wildly famous meme coin is currently exchanging hands between $0.18 and $0.20 with a bit more activity than the week before.
Now, some analysts think the calm will soon yield to a big rally. New technical signals suggest that the Dogecoin price is showing some signs of life as it looks at a breakout of $0.5 as bullish momentum slowly returns.
Market Developments and Analyst Insights
Crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL on platform X is fuelling a traders comeback full of hope once again. The analyst added that the Dogecoin price is now testing the lower boundary of a long-term rising channel that has been directing its growth since its inception.
Every time Dogecoin price has hit this bottom range historically, it has seen significant bumpbacks. These reversals frequently signal the beginning of strong upward thrusts. The current setup resembles those in the past that have preceded major Dogecoin price rallies, the analysis adds.
Dogecoin tumbled earlier this month due to a sudden market decline, but began recovering swiftly from solid support areas. This recovery is reminiscent of the early phases of the 2021 surge, which saw the price of Dogecoin grow from less than $0.10 to over $0.70 in months’ time.
On each rip off this trendline support has coincided with a recovery that led to new highs for the coin. The structure indicates that Dogecoin may be again poised to accelerate higher should pressure mount on the market, the pattern suggests.
Momentum Indicators Point to a Bottom
EtherNasyonaL’s analysis revealed that DOGE’s momentum indicators are now at historic lows. The Stochastic RSI, which measures momentum strength, shows a clear bottoming signal. The last time this pattern appeared, DOGE entered a strong bullish cycle shortly afterward.
The analyst described the current stage as one of “quiet, calm, yet determined recovery.” Although the market appears still, the Dogecoin price could be in the early accumulation phase that often precedes large upward moves.
Technical Outlook and Price Channel Structure
The long-term rising channel on the Dogecoin chart is still holding. The Dogecoin price is currently with its back up against the bottom of these curves, which have acted as a launch point for previous cycles. A bounce back from this zone might drive the price towards $0.5.
If the recovery strengthens, further targets may include $0.9 and $1, aligning with the previous all-time high region. For now, maintaining the channel’s lower range is crucial for confirming a bullish continuation.
On-Chain Data Strengthens Bullish Sentiment
On-chain activity also confirms the positive view. The amount of DOGE held in exchanges’ reserves is still decreasing, indicating that holders are moving coins into long term storage. This decrease in available supply has been followed by runs up in the price of Dogecoin.
Month
Min. Price
Avg. Price
Max. Price
Change
Oct 2025
$ 0.1896
$ 0.2132
$ 0.2476
25.35%
Nov 2025
$ 0.2070
$ 0.2228
$ 0.2357
19.30%
Dec 2025
$ 0.2281
$ 0.2341
$ 0.2406
21.78%
The level at $0.195 is being closely monitored by analysts. Continued movement above that level could indicate the onset of a Wyckoff-style markup phase, as institutional and algorithmic buyers return to the market.
Short-Term Risks and Key Support Levels
There are positive signs, but short-term caution is still in order. There is a strong support forming near the $0.194 level, below which it might revisit the $0.188 support zone. Preserving these watersheds are critical to the path of maintaining this bullish structure.
Institutional traders are waiting on volume to confirm. A strong volume breakout beyond $0.20 could confirm the beginning of the next leg of the uptrend. Without it, these side way rests can continue before any broader move takes hold.
Calm Before the Potential Breakout
Currently, DOGE is in a state of consolidation and calm – but history says it’s unlikely to stay that way. The technical and on-chain indicators suggest momentum is building under the surface. Traders view this as the quiet before the next wave.
As the overall crypto market takes a breather, Dogecoin might be at the forefront of the next wave of bullish speculation. Historical cycles highlighted that quiet periods like this generally lead to a surge in upwards momentum, so it is worth keeping an eye on.
Conclusion
The Dogecoin value is stable, but it could break one way or another. Strong technical support, low momentum readings and increasingly confident investors indicate that the next move could be to the upside.
If Dogecoin continues to hold above $0.194, it might be a sign of strength in the market. If $0.20 gets taken out with volume the price can head higher towards $0.5 and beyond hopefully.
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