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Yesterday — 7 March 2026Main stream

Ricky Pearsall and 2 Other Potential WR Big Best Ball Winners in Free Agency

We tend to think of NFL free agency through the excitement of players landing on new teams and what it means for them and the other players already on the roster that get reshuffled. But what about the situations where the opposite happens? Nothing. Despite the lack of noise, the fantasy implications can be just as big. That’s where we’re looking today.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

In the vacated opportunities charts above, we see the 49ers with 30% vacated target share. In reality, it’s even more, as George Kittle is a long shot to be ready by Week 1. In the article, I wrote: “I read this chart as good news for Pearsall truthers,” which ended up being the inspiration for this article as a whole. Let’s not forget how Pearsall started in 2025 before injuries screwed everything up – a 4-108-0 game and an 8-117-0 game on 11 targets. And that was after he finished his 2024 rookie season with 18 targets, 14 receptions, 210 yards and 2 TDs over just his last two games. So that’s a five-game stretch with 491 yards on 30 catches. Obviously, I’m getting creative with that math and finding trends that don’t fit together perfectly, but the point is that Pearsall has played well – even for stretches at a time – but health has been his limiter. If the 49ers don’t make a splash at WR in free agency, Pearsall’s best ball stock is going to rise, and for good reason.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 12: Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) comes out of the tunnel before the NFC Wild Card playoff game between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles on January 12th, 2025 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire) The Eagles pass-catching room sits at 29% vacated target share with Dallas Goedert’s deal ending, and that doesn’t factor in that A.J. Brown is the hottest name on the trade market right now. Is Smith ready for a true WR1 role? There’s no question. He’s been absurdly consistent in his five-year career, and there’s no reason to doubt his ceiling even without Brown. Smith is already best ball gold with spike weeks hitting semi-consistently, usually in trade-offs with Brown, Goedert or Saquon Barkley. If two of those spike week shareholders sell their stock to Smith, he’s going to be golden all year.

Kayshon Boutte, WR, New England Patriots

Boutte was projected to be a first-round pick while in college before injuries moved that off the table, and while his year-end stat-line doesn’t jump off the page (46-33-551-6), some of his individual plays absolutely did.
Boutte’s 6 TDs were second on the team behind Hunter Henry (7) in three fewer games. He only just barely trailed Stefon Diggs for the team lead in Air Yards (791 vs. 781) on 48 fewer targets thanks to his high aDOT of 16.98. (Of WR with over 30 targets, Boutte ranked fifth in Air Yards.) The high aDOT + good TD output + losing Diggs + still tied to Drake Maye = Boutte in best ball. If the Pats add Alec Pierce, this calculation changes a bit, because Pierce (aDOT of 18.96, over 1k yards) basically did everything Boutte did last year, but better. In that scenario, maybe Boutte’s aDOT lowers and he gets fed more targets to offset it. If the Pats add A.J. Brown, Brown becomes the high-volume workhorse – likely significantly more so than Diggs was – and Boutte keeps getting these deep balls. I’d count this as a best ball win. So I don’t see either of these two scenarios as Boutte kill shots. A Pierce signing may actually hurt his best ball upside more unless it leads to a significant ramp up in targets. The dormant threat may actually lay in the development of Kyle Williams and Mack Hollins’ ability
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