The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs.
Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market.
The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance.
The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact.
However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength.
Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000.
The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established.
Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000.
Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program may soon come to an end. Strategists at JPMorgan and the Bank of America believe that the central bank will stop shrinking its roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, bringing an end to the Fed quantitative tightening.
According to a recent Bloomberg report, these Wall Street giants have moved up their QT program predictions due to a surge in dollar funding costs. They initially anticipated the move in December or early 2026.
JPMorgan and Bank of America strategists predict that the development will occur this month, effectively ending the $6.6 trillion balance sheet unwind from the Federal Reserve.
The Fed QT program, a large and influential market factor since it began in 2022, allows the Fed’s balance sheet of $6.6 trillion to be reduced without replacing maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to gradually remove excess liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation and achieve economic stability. However, with rising borrowing costs in repo and funding markets, concerns are growing about reserve scarcity in the banking system.
In a client note, Bank of America’s Mark Cabana and Katie Craig wrote, “Money markets at current or higher levels should signal to the Fed that reserves are no longer ‘abundant.’” They urged to “cut the crap before things snap.”
At the same time, JPMorgan strategist Teresa Ho noted that markets have become increasingly frictional, highlighting the Fed’s dwindling reverse repo facility as a key warning sign. “Markets have been operating with much more friction,” noted the strategist. This development has led TD Securities and Wrightson ICAP to revise their expectations for the end of quantitative tightening to October. However, Barclays and Goldman Sachs anticipate a slightly later conclusion to the runoff.
Several other Wall Street analysts, including those from Wrightson ICAP, Evercore ISI, and Jefferies, also predict that the Federal Reserve will conclude its QT program by the end of October.
Notably, the central bank chair, Jerome Powell, indicated that the balance sheet reduction is likely to conclude when reserves reach a level “somewhat above” what’s considered ample, aiming to prevent market disruptions. He added, “We may approach that point in the coming months.” This suggests the bank is nearing the end of the Fed quantitative tightening program.
Another noteworthy event the market is watching closely in the wake of the QT program is whether the Fed will do anything about interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, scheduled for October 28-29. Powell and some others have mentioned the possibility of rate cuts at previous meetings.
But it is uncertain if a rate cuts may occur at the FOMC meeting, as the government shutdown has now entered the 23rd day with no signs of resolution. The lack of major data releases, starting with the jobs report among others, is putting the Federal Reserve in a challenging position.
If the Fed stops QT, liquidity would dry up, and we would experience a monetary loosening that would bring forth more investment, lower Treasury yields, and demand risk assets like Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin has performed well during QE periods and poorly during QT periods. For instance, during QE from 2020-2021, Bitcoin moved from $7,000 to $69,000. However, once QT began in 2022, as liquidity was tightening, Bitcoin moved from $47,000 down to $15,000. Now, many analysts believe that if the Fed quantitative tightening were to go away, there is a possibility that fresh inflows into Bitcoin may rise and the price may surge.
According to the long-standing analyst Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin has been trapped in a sideways move between $100,000 $120,000 in the last six months, which indicates that it is likely going to create a major break either way. Additionally, he expects the next movements of the currency to come from the FOMC meeting, potential rate cuts in the future, and monetary policy changes.
The expected cessation of the Fed’s quantitative tightening and the possible cuts in rates will be a strong factor for the inflow of liquidity into the financial system, raising the risk appetite that in turn might drive the prices of Bitcoin higher.
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Read More: JPMorgan, BofA Predict Fed Ending $6.6T QT in October and Bitcoin May Win">JPMorgan, BofA Predict Fed Ending $6.6T QT in October and Bitcoin May Win
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