Way too early NFL MVP odds for 2026

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16 February 2026 at 16:12

Every offseason brings speculation, projection models, and plenty of debate — but nothing captures long-range anticipation quite like the way-too-early MVP odds. Before a single snap of the season is played, sportsbooks and analysts are already trying to forecast which superstar will dominate the narrative across the NFL landscape in 2026. These early numbers don’t just reflect talent — they reflect team trajectory, offensive stability, durability, and the ever-important storylines that shape voter perception.

At the front of the conversation are familiar faces who’ve already proven they can carry franchises and command national attention. Josh Allen remains a perennial contender because of his rare blend of physicality and high-volume production. Lamar Jackson continues to redefine quarterback play with explosive dual-threat impact that can reshape games week to week. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is almost permanently positioned in MVP discussions simply because excellence has become routine.

Just behind them sit elite passers still chasing that defining MVP season. Justin Herbert possesses statistical upside that could translate into award recognition if team success follows. And Joe Burrow continues to build a résumé centered on precision, composure, and winning in high-leverage moments.

Of course, “way too early” is the operative phrase. Injuries, breakout stars, coaching changes, and unexpected team surges will inevitably reshape the race. But right now, these odds offer a snapshot of who the football world expects to define the 2026 season — and whose performance could ultimately shape the league’s competitive hierarchy.

Josh Allen

Odds: +550
Allen’s MVP case always starts with his physical dominance — few quarterbacks can stress defenses as both a power runner and vertical passer the way he does. If his efficiency stabilizes late in the season and turnover swings tighten up, he becomes incredibly hard to beat in voting. A top seed paired with highlight-reel production would make him the clear betting favorite.

Lamar Jackson

Odds: +650
Jackson’s ceiling is still unmatched when his rushing explosiveness and passing rhythm peak at the same time. Voters tend to reward his dual-threat dominance when his offense is built around his improvisational strengths. Another season where he controls tempo and stays healthy deep into January would put him squarely in the MVP spotlight again.

Patrick Mahomes

Odds: +1000
Mahomes is almost permanently in the MVP conversation because of how consistently he elevates his offense regardless of surrounding personnel. If his statistical output rebounds into league-leading territory while maintaining elite situational play, the narrative momentum quickly returns. He’s the classic “never count him out” candidate when big moments pile up.

Justin Herbert

Odds: +1000
Herbert’s MVP path hinges on translating elite arm talent into sustained team success over a full season. When his deep passing and high-volume production align with efficient red-zone execution, his numbers look historic. A breakout year in the win column could finally convert his statistical brilliance into major award recognition.

Joe Burrow

Odds: +1000
Burrow’s candidacy thrives on precision, timing, and leadership in high-leverage moments. When his offense operates at peak efficiency and he controls games late, voters tend to gravitate toward his poised style. If he combines elite passing totals with another deep playoff push narrative, his MVP momentum can surge quickly.

Conclusion

Early MVP odds are less prediction and more temperature check — a reflection of reputation, momentum, and projected opportunity. They highlight who the league believes will matter most before the season even begins. And while the eventual winner often emerges from unexpected circumstances, these early favorites set the stage for the narratives, rivalries, and performances that will define the 2026 MVP race.