The NBA offseason has been wild, to say the least.

Blockbuster trades featuring names such as Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Paul George and LaMelo Ball have completely rewritten the identity of several franchises. And the biggest free agent, LeBron James, is out of Los Angeles and will have a new team fairly soon.

Amidst all the chaos surrounding them, the Oklahoma City Thunder have remained noticeably quiet in comparison. With the new CBA, it’s all about avoiding the second apron and losing future draft capital. In order to mitigate these issues, the Thunder traded key role players Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks, respectively, netting second-round draft picks in return. 

Their other big move was re-signing Isaiah Hartenstein to a new contract through 2028-29, adding to what he already had in effect. He will receive an additional $47 million, totaling $134 million for his five years with the franchise, fully guaranteed.

The Thunder Battled a Post-Championship Hangover All Season

Following their spectacular championship run in 2024-25, the Thunder entered the 2025-26 campaign as the undisputed “top dog.” They played like it too, tearing through the regular season to rack up an impressive 64 wins. Winning at that clip is brutal in the modern NBA, but doing it on the heels of a grueling seven-game title run while navigating a relentless wave of injuries is nothing short of heroic.

At one point or another, 10 different rotation players missed at least 10 games. Yet, OKC kept rolling. But the wear and tear finally caught up to them in the Western Conference Finals.

Facing Victor Wembanyama and the ascending San Antonio Spurs, a severely banged-up Thunder squad saw its season end in a heartbreaking seven-game series. The re-injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell during that series ultimately hobbled the offense.

The fact that a short-handed Thunder team still pushed a rising juggernaut to seven games — and could have realistically won had they secured a few crucial defensive rebounds in the second half — speaks volumes about this team’s collective talent, depth, and sheer will.

Presti is betting heavily on internal growth, draft injection, and better health. The front office added elite young depth by selecting Aday Mara (12th overall) and Bennett Stirtz (16th overall) in the draft, with both rookies expected to contribute immediately.

If JDub and Mitchell can stay healthy next May, and if the rookies flash their expected upside, Oklahoma City’s depth remains unmatched. But to truly reclaim the throne next June, the focus shifts squarely to the development of their top stars.

Gilgeous-Alexander and JDub Need to Evolve Offensively

As phenomenal as Gilgeous-Alexander was en route to his back-to-back MVP awards, the Spurs managed to bother him for prolonged stretches in the Conference Finals. Wembanyama is a singular, rim-deterring force, but the relentless perimeter ball pressure from Stephon Castle and Carter Bryant, combined with San Antonio’s shape-shifting help defense, frequently disrupted Shai’s usual rhythm.

At his best, SGA punished aggressive help looks with elite playmaking, logging a career-series-high 8.9 assists per game in the Spurs series. The Thunder found creative ways to get him downhill, utilizing screens and seals from Isaiah Hartenstein, wing-clearing cuts, and off-ball screens to space the floor. This resulted in masterclasses in Game 2 (30 points, 9 assists) and Game 7 (35 points, 9 assists).

When forced out of his comfort zone, however, things got rough. The off-the-dribble three-point proficiency SGA displayed during the regular season (39.1% on 3.4 attempts) evaporated against San Antonio’s length, plummeting to just 5-of-22 (22.7%) in the series. With Wembanyama walling off the paint and perimeter defenders aggressively loading the gaps, the midrange evaporated, leaving SGA isolated.

To dismantle a defense specifically engineered to stop him, SGA’s next evolutionary step lies in his perimeter volume and processing speed. Tightening up his pass placement, particularly on kick-outs to the corner, which occasionally drifted high or outside the shooter’s pocket, will be vital when playoff margins shrink to zero.

Williams, meanwhile, largely earns a pass after battling health limitations during the postseason.

Still, his half-court shot selection warrants monitoring. He leans heavily on the short midrange, and the question heading into next season is whether he’s choosing those looks or being forced into them by collapsing defenses. A fully healthy, multi-level scoring campaign from JDub remains OKC’s highest-upside variable.

Cason Wallace‘s Rise Could Solve the Lu Dort Dilemma

Following the slew of financial moves made by Sam Presti, guard Cason Wallace emerges as the biggest winner of all. Fresh off earning All-Defensive honors, Wallace showed stellar two-way flashes that have given OKC all the more reason to capitalize on their newly opened salary space.

In the midst of the team’s injury-riddled regular-season stretch, Wallace was handed significantly increased offensive duties. During February, when he started all 12 games, he averaged nearly 15 points and five assists. OKC went 8-4 in that stretch. When the playoffs arrived, Wallace was second on the Thunder in postseason three-pointers made, hitting them at a team-best 48.4 percent clip.

Because of this rapid evolution, extending Wallace this offseason should not be a question. He enters the 2027 offseason as a restricted free agent, and waiting until the open market risks a costly bidding war that could cost the franchise millions.

That urgency ties directly to the Lu Dort situation. The Thunder opted into Dort’s final year under contract, but it is no guarantee he starts the season in Oklahoma City. With a massive cap crunch looming, the possibility of moving Dort continues to grow. Should that trade happen, a gap opens perfectly in the starting lineup. Wallace is tailor-made to fill it.

The Thunder Should Still Be Viewed as Championship Favorites

According to Fanduel, the Thunder and the Spurs make up the top two odds on favorites to win the title. This makes sense considering the amount of talent they have in comparison to everyone else. The Thunder were down two important ball handlers and still took San Antonio to seven games. As most bettors and fans see it, it’s currently a toss-up as to which team is better.

But if being the favorite means possessing the highest baseline, the most organic upside, and having the best player in the league, then the answer is yes, the Oklahoma City Thunder should be the favorites.

The margins for error have officially vanished. But Sam Presti has prepared for moments like these, stacking draft capital and doing whatever it takes to put his team in the best position to succeed.

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