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NFL Draft consensus shows where experts disagree on top 10
The clock is ticking, NFL Draft fans.
We’re only hours away from Las Vegas making the draft’s first pick in Pittsburgh.
As with every draft, there is no shortage of opinions.
And as we all know, opinions are like … assessments. Yes, that’s right, assessements.
This time of year, everyone’s an expert on the NFL’s biggest day(s) of the offseason.
Predicting the draft has become a cottage industry. It’s fun and foolish at the same time because there are always surprising, head-scratching selections. This year won’t be any different. Tune in and see.
MORE: Watch 2026 NFL Draft live on Fubo (free trial)
Future Super Bowl titles have been won through excellent drafts that have turned teams into champions.
This year, the Las Vegas Raiders, barring a stunner, will take Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall. He’ll be just the second player taken first by the Raiders in the franchise’s storied history.
Mendoza is as close to a lock as it gets. Every NFL Draft guru agrees on that. Seems like a simple pick to everyone, including the brainiacs who put together NFL.com’s 2026 Draft IQ.
After that, it’s unclear in which direction teams are leaning, starting with the New York Jets at No. 2.
The fine folks at NFL Mock Draft Database (MDDB) have compiled an incredibly comprehensive collection of mock drafts. In fact, a whopping 192 total. Wow. Well done.
Meanwhile, here at The Big Lead (TBL), we also have a wild man guesstimating this year’s draft, so we’ll include his picks as well, along with my own take.
From MDDB: “The 2026 Consensus Mock Draft aggregates data from multiple sources to project the most likely player selections for each NFL Draft pick. It compiles projections from 192 first-round mock drafts, identifying the most commonly predicted player for each team’s pick. The percentage listed reflects how often a player is projected for that specific slot. Updated daily, this consensus prioritizes unique player selections on a first-come, first-served basis, offering a reliable, dynamic snapshot of the 2026 NFL Draft landscape.”
Note: We’re focusing only on the top 10 picks because those are generally the most important ones, and also, that’s our prerogative. But you can easily peruse the projected first round here.
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
MDDB’s percent chance to go first: 100%
Other possibilities: None
TBL’s Jobe Morrison: “This is the surest bet in the draft. No drama needed — Mendoza heads to the silver and black. The only guaranteed correct pick of any NFL mock draft.”
My take: This is correct.
RELATED: 2026 NFL mock draft with shocking top 3, latest trade buzz
2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
MDDB’s percent chance Reese is selected second: 56%
Other possibilities: David Bailey, Sonny Styles, Carnell Tate
Morrison’s take: “After trading for Geno Smith, the Jets must improve their offensive weapons. Tate, the top receiver in the class, forms an exciting Ohio State duo in New York.”
My take: Not a chance they’re taking Tate at No. 2. Reese or Bailey here.”
3. Arizona Cardinals: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
MDDB’s percent chance Bailey is selected third: 37%
Other possibilities: Arvell Reese, Jeremiyah Love, Sonny Styles, Carnell Tate
Morrison’s take: “TRADE Dallas Cowboys (picks No. 12 and No. 20 for Arizona’s No. 3 and No. 65 picks). 3, 65).
Arizona looks to trade down, and Dallas outbids Kansas City to land a local product. Bailey could reignite the Cowboys’ defense.”
My take: This makes sense because Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is reportedly enamored with Bailey.
4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
MDDB’s percent chance Love is selected fourth: 57%
Other possibilities: Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Carnell Tate
Morrison’s take: “LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State. Titans head coach Robert Saleh wants a defensive playmaker. Styles offers versatility, leadership, and the ability to command the defense.”
My take: I agree with my colleague here and think Styles is the pick.
5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
MDDB’s percent chance Styles is selected fifth: 37%
Other possibilities: Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon
Morrison’s take: “WR Makai Lemon, USC. Lemon joins Malik Nabers to give Jaxson Dart another dynamic weapon. Despite inconsistent buzz, his talent remains undeniable.
My take: No siree Jobe. There will be Love in the heart of New York City. Jeremiyah will be a Giant and a huge fan favorite from Day 1. He will make fans finally forget the loss of Saquon Barkley.
6. Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
MDDB’s percent chance Tate is selected sixth: 40%
Other possibilities: Jeremiyah Love, Spencer Fano, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Caleb Downs
Morrison’s take: “OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami. With their once-dominant line gone, Cleveland begins rebuilding the trenches. Mauigoa provides a foundational piece.”
My take: The Browns need a bit of everything, but I can see them pulling the trigger on polarizing wide receiver Jordan Tyson here.
7. Washington Commanders: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
MDDB’s percent chance Downs is selected seventh: 13%
Other possibilities: Spencer Fano, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Rueben Bain Jr.
Morrison’s take: “TRADE Kansas City Chiefs (picks No. 9, No. 74, and No. 176 for Washington’s No. 7 and No. 147 picks): EDGE Arvell Reese, Ohio State. Kansas City jumps up for a defensive difference-maker while Washington gains extra capital. Reese continues Ohio State’s dominant draft showing.”
My take: I do think the Chiefs are looking to make a major move up, and I like the thinking here, except that Arvell Reese will be long gone by No. 7. I’ll buy anyone a prime steak in Kansas City if you declare otherwise. Best player available time. That’s Downs.
8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (Florida)
MDDB’s percent chance Bain Jr. is selected eighth: 28%
Other possibilities: Mansoor Delane, Spencer Fano, Francis Mauigoa, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon
Morrison’s take: “RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame. Trade rumors around Alvin Kamara grow louder. Drafting Love strengthens that possibility while boosting the offense.”
My take: First, Love won’t last until No. 8, so that’s out. If he does fall that far, the Saints will embrace him and it will be like Mardi Gras on Thursday night in New Orleans. But I think the Saints are going to dash the Chiefs’ dreams of drafting cornerback Mansoor Delane from LSU and keeping him at home in the Bayou.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
MDDB’s percent chance Delane is selected ninth: 27%
Other possibilities: Caleb Downs, Mansoor Delane, Spencer Fano, Francis Mauigoa, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Kenyon Sadiq.
Morrison’s take: “S Caleb Downs, Ohio State. After trading down, Washington still lands a defensive cornerstone. Downs brings versatility and immediate impact.”
My take: If the Chiefs do stand pat at No. 9 and their top three choices are off the board — which I believe they will be — I’m saying Kansas City goes with Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq. He could replace You Know Who when Mr. Swift decides to retire after next season.
10. New York Giants: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
MDDB’s percent chance Tyson is selected 10th: 26%
Other possibilities: Mansoor Delane, Spencer Fano, Francis Mauigoa, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Kenyon Sadiq
Morrison’s take: “TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon. The Giants keep building around QB Jaxson Dart. Sadiq adds elite athleticism to an already loaded skill group.”
My take: Giants fans would be thrilled if New York adds another weapon for Dart. Lemon is beginning to move up draft boards and I think he’s the pick here.
Conclusion
This isn’t a great NFL Draft class, but it’s a good one. There should be plenty of trades to back up the pre-draft buzz.
There will always be bluffing as teams try to keep their draft cards close to the vest.
Round 1 will be entertaining, particularly for you New Yorkers. This is a crucial draft for both the Jets and Giants.
Let the booing — or maybe cheering from those fans — begin here soon (8 p.m. ET).
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