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Warren Sharp shares his boldest 2026 NFL predictions
Believe it or not, NFL training camps start next week, with the rookies for the defending champion Seattle Seahawks arriving on July 17. From there, it’s a gradual buildup to Week One of the regular season, which kicks off with the Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and the New England Patriots in Seattle.
To learn more about what to expect this fall, we recently caught up with analyst Warren Sharp.
Note: This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity.
If there’s a reason the Rams won’t make the Super Bowl, what do you think it is?
Warren Sharp: “They entered last season using more two-tight-end sets. When they suffered some injuries at the receiver position, they started using even more three-tight-end sets. Now the rest of the league knows what’s coming to a degree. The rest of the league knows that Sean McVay has made a pivot from the highest rate of 11 personnel to the highest rate of three-tight-end sets. That is kind of a card he’s already played. He’s not going to be able to play again this year. So all the other teams, like your Seattle Seahawks, from teams that he’s going to play on the schedule outside his division, know what’s coming. So that’s mainly the prime thing. Defensively, they added people in the secondary. They obviously added Myles Garrett. It’s hard to replicate what he did last season.”
What’s your boldest prediction?
“I’m bigger on the Houston Texans than I think a lot of people are. The Texans are like plus-900 to win the AFC. They sit behind the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, so they’re not even a top-five team to win the AFC. I think the Houston Texans have a chance to replicate what they did defensively and, on offense, get a lot better for a couple of reasons. Most people’s opinion of C.J. Stroud right now is very negative. They saw what C.J. Stroud did, barely beating Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh in a road playoff game. And then they saw him play terribly in inclement weather against the New England Patriots, a very good defense.
“C.J. Stroud did not have the best year last year. …But if you look at C.J. Stroud over 80 yards of the field outside of the red zone, the first 80 yards of the field, he actually was 13th in EPA per attempt, 17th in yards per attempt, 22nd in success rate. That is out of 45 qualifying quarterbacks. He was just 40th or worse in several of those statistics inside of the red zone. That, to me, tends to regress. I think they had a first-year play caller in Nick Caley last year. He came from the Rams coaching tree, and I think they’re going to call better plays inside of the red zone this year.”
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— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 8, 2026
Why do you think David Montgomery can make a difference?
“David Montgomery is actually the No. 1 rusher in EPA and first-down rate on man-blocking runs over the last two years. And so that’s a sneaky upside. Everybody’s (saying): ‘Jahmyr Gibbs is so much better than David Montgomery. David Montgomery is over the hill.’ He might be over the hill, and yes, he’s not as good as Jahmyr Gibbs, but he’s still good in this system. And so I think with a better offensive line, a better run game, and what I view as C.J. Stroud regressing more to the mean in red-zone efficiency when he’s passing the football, this Houston Texans team is led by the outstanding job their head coach does and a great defense; I think they have a very high floor. I think their ceiling is definitely in the conversation of potentially winning the AFC.”
Is there a win total under/over that you like?
“I like the Carolina Panthers under 7.5 half wins. This is a team that really had to come from behind extensively last year to win games. The only thing that’s going good for the Carolina Panthers, in my opinion, is that they play in a very weak NFC South division. But other than that, this team really struggled. This stat is just one of the more mind-blowing stats that I researched in the book because Carolina went to the playoffs. Across all 17 games combined, they trailed by 92 points entering the fourth quarter of their games. That ranked 27th in the NFL. How a team wins eight games and makes the playoffs but trails by 92 points entering the fourth quarter is a massive contradiction.”
Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson all missed the playoffs last year. Who has the best chance of reaching the Super Bowl?
“Joe Burrow, in my opinion. Now, I think Patrick Mahomes is the easiest answer here…
“But I will go with the Cincinnati Bengals. …You look around the landscape of that AFC North, and here’s one of the more interesting things about Joe Burrow that I don’t think a lot of people know. Joe Burrow, when he starts for the Bengals because he’s been in our lineup a little bit, is eight wins and 11 losses against the AFC North. That’s a 42% win rate, but he is 23-9 against everybody else. That’s a 72% win rate. I think the AFC North is down a little bit this year.”
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— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 23, 2026
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Which rookie do you think is best positioned to succeed?
“I do like Sonny Styles in Washington. They need a playmaker there. They’ve got a playmaker there, and I think he’s going to have an instant impact. He’s exactly what Dan Quinn needs. He fills a void for them, and I think he’s going to splash a ton. So I think the coaching he’s going to get from Quinn and the staff is really going to help him shine. And this is a team that had a terrible defense last year. The defense was historic.”
Will the Mike McCarthy-Aaron Rodgers reunion win a playoff game?
“I don’t think they’re going to make it to the playoffs, so I would say no. Now, could they? Yes, they could make it to the playoffs. It obviously depends who they play. But I just think this team is lacking in a lot of areas. Steelers fans are bigger on their receiving core, potentially, than I am. But I’ve got some interesting statistics. I won’t go through all of them, but if you compare Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers—the quarterbacks they had in 2024 and then in 2025—Aaron Rodgers was worse than those guys. He did not lead the team in completion rate, accuracy, yards per attempt, success rate, or passer rating. In pretty much every single critical metric, Rodgers was not better than Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, which is pretty shocking to people.”
Which team will be the worst?
“The Miami Dolphins’ defense might be one of the worst in the NFL. They have very poor personnel. Their secondary is abysmal. It’s easy to look at their receiving core and say it’s terrible, but the defense might be even worse. As a result, all these really good offenses they’re going to play are going to score points. And when those teams are scoring points, it’s going to be hard to outscore them with Malik Willis and those wide receivers. So I just think there’s a very good chance they’re going to win two or three or four games next season and be in contention for the worst team in the league.”
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— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 27, 2026
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What’s your Super Bowl prediction?
“Let’s stick with the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC. And in the NFC, let’s go back to the well on the Philadelphia Eagles. I think the Philadelphia Eagles were massively impacted by a terrible offensive coordinator last year who was promoted from within. They brought in a new offensive coordinator this year. I know they lost A.J. Brown, but I think overall this offense will be better. I think the defense is still elite…
“If I had to pick a second favorite in the NFC, I would probably go with the Rams. If I had to pick a second favorite in the AFC, I would probably go with the Texans.”
Do random people approach you to ask for gambling or fantasy football advice?
“I was out at the fireworks, and my mustache is just recognizable. People come up and ask me, ‘Are you Warren Sharp?’ And then they want to introduce themselves. So, I did get met there, but that was by a person who wasn’t asking for gambling advice. He was just wanting to meet me. Almost every single interaction I’ve had has been excellent with people.
“I try not to be overly negative on social media. I just try to stick to the facts and data and share my opinion. But inevitably it riles up fan bases. But, in person, when they see you are genuinely decent people. So I’ve been fortunate in that regard.”
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The post Warren Sharp shares his boldest 2026 NFL predictions appeared first on Awful Announcing.
