The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes and the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies are set for a high-stakes clash in the first round of the College Football Playoff Saturday, December 20, 2025, at Kyle Field in College Station, TX. Both programs are making their first-ever CFP appearances.
Each school brings strong play in the trenches and multiple, high-end skill position players into the game, but each has a quarterback who has made “questionable decisions” in high leverage moments.
Fun Fact: Both Miami and Texas A&M recorded wins against Notre Dame this season.
Fun Fact II: The Hurricanes were the dominant power in college football for 20 years securing five national titles from 1983-2003. This season, however, was just the second season with at least ten wins in the last 22 years.
Lets dive into the schools, a few of the top players, and the stats that make up each side.
Game Details and How to watch Miami at Texas A&M
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
- Time: 12:00PM Eastern
- Site: Kyle Field
- City: College Station, TX
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds for Miami at Texas A&M
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Miami Hurricanes (+150), Texas A&M Aggies (-180)
- Spread: Texas A&M -3.5 (-110)
- Total: 51.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Texas A&M Aggies
Head Coach: Mike Elko
2025 Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 7
Defense Ranking: 21
Strength of Schedule: 18
Texas A&M’s season was a breakthrough campaign under Mike Elko, powered by a Top 10 SP+ profile and one of the nation’s most disruptive defenses. The Aggies post an 11–1 record highlighted by wins over Notre Dame, LSU, and Missouri, pairing a balanced, Top 20 offense with a defense that ranks fifth in success rate allowed and first nationally on third down. Their offense blends steady efficiency with explosive passing, generating 6.56 yards per play while the run game consistently stays ahead of schedule. Defensively, an elite front produces the No. 2 havoc rate and No. 1 sack rate on passing downs, smothering opponents with backfield penetration and negative plays. Despite a narrow loss to Texas, Texas A&M is firmly in the CFP National Title conversation thanks to dominant metrics, big-game wins, and consistent week-to-week performance.
The Texas A&M Aggies Offense
Texas A&M’s offense pairs a Top 40 rushing attack with a Top 30 passing game to generate 6.56 yards per play (21st) and a 46.5% success rate (28th). The Aggies consistently stay ahead of schedule, ranking 12th nationally in standard-downs success rate, while producing explosive gains through the air with a 21.5% explosive completion rate (12th) and strong 10.0 adjusted net yards per attempt. Their run game creates steady chunk yardage thanks to elite yards-before-contact numbers and a low 1.9% pressure rate allowed by one of the SEC’s best offensive lines. The result is an offense that marries efficiency, explosive-play capability, and physical trench play to keep defenses off balance.
Texas A&M Player to Watch on Offense: QB Marcel Reed
Marcel Reed is the dynamic dual-threat centerpiece of Texas A&M’s 7th ranked offense, combining opportunistic passing with explosive upside as a runner. He completes 61.8% of his 338 attempts for 2,932 yards with a strong 25–10 TD-INT line, posting 8.2 yards per dropback and a 9.1 ANY/A while pushing the ball downfield at a 14.0 yards-per-completion clip. On the ground, Reed has rushed for 536 yards at 6.78 yards per carry with a 46.8% success rate, showcasing both burst (16.9% of carries gaining 10+ yards) and tough yardage creation (3.28 yards before contact). PFF grades indicate a rounded, but somewhat flawed profile, with a 69.1 offensive grade, 66.9 passing grade, and 64.1 rushing grade, highlighted by a 72.0% adjusted completion rate but bogged down by a 17-to-18 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate. Reed’s blend of poise, explosiveness, and multidimensional playmaking elevates A&M’s offense and positions him as one of the SEC’s emerging quarterbacks.
The Texas A&M Defense
Texas A&M’s defense is one of the most disruptive units in the country, ranking Top 5 nationally in success rate allowed and boasting the No. 2 overall havoc rate. The Aggies overwhelm opponents at the line of scrimmage, generating the nation’s No. 1 sack rate on passing downs and pairing it with elite run defense that holds opponents to just 36.2% rushing success (10th). Their pass coverage forces inefficiency, allowing only a 32.2% passing success rate and one of the lowest rates of positive dropbacks in FBS, while thriving against both man and zone looks thanks to strong tackling and forcing tight windows. Overall, the defense’s combination of backfield penetration, third-down dominance, and explosive-play prevention makes it the backbone of A&M’s CFP run.
Texas A&M Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Cashius Howell
Cashius Howell delivered a standout season as Texas A&M’s premier edge threat, leading the defense with a staggering 22 havoc plays, 11.5 sacks and 16.0 TFLs. His pass-rushing profile is elite across the board, generating 39 pressures on 246 rushes (15.9%), ranking first on the team in total disruptions, and flashing strong finishing ability with nine sacks created and a forced fumble. Howell’s PFF grades reinforce his impact: a dominant 90.4 pass-rush grade, 78.6 tackling grade, and an overall defensive mark of 80.0, supported by 12 sacks, 27 hurries, and 41 total pressures. Despite drawing extra attention from protections, he maintains efficiency with a 2.65-second average time to first pressure and a 16.2% third-down pressure rate, consistently wrecking drives. Altogether, Howell’s blend of explosiveness, discipline, and advanced pass-rush polish made him one of the SEC’s most disruptive defensive playmakers and a centerpiece of A&M’s top-tier defense.
Miami Hurricanes
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Offense Ranking: 16
Defense Ranking: 10
Strength of Schedule: 41
Miami turned in one of its most complete seasons of the Cristobal era, pairing a Top 16 offense with a Top 10 defense to reach 10–2 with underlying metrics that fully validate the record. The Hurricanes operate with impressive efficiency on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th nationally in offensive success rate and 8th defensively, while averaging 6.32 yards per play and holding opponents to just 4.51 YPP. Their offense is methodical but productive, thriving on standard-downs efficiency and elite protection (No. 2 nationally in pressure rate allowed), which helps sustain drives and produce a Top 20 scoring rate. Defensively, Miami disrupts opponents through a Top 10 havoc rate, stingy run defense, and excellent coverage numbers, especially against zone concepts where they allow only 4.9 yards per dropback. Ultimately, Miami’s blend of efficiency, ball security (+9 turnover margin), and week-to-week consistency make it the ACC’s lone hope of bringing home a CFP National Championship.
The Miami Hurricanes Offense
Miami’s offense operates as an efficient, rhythm-based unit that ranks 10th nationally in success rate while averaging 6.32 yards per play (26th) despite limited explosiveness. The Hurricanes thrive on staying ahead of schedule, posting a Top 10 standard-downs success rate and converting 78.4% of new-set opportunities behind an offensive line that allows the second-lowest pressure rate in the country (1.4%) behind future 1st round RT Francis Mauigoa. Their passing game is remarkably accurate with a 73.9% completion rate and Top 10 marks in both passing success rate and adjusted accuracy, allowing Miami to sustain drives. Complemented by a steady, committee-based rushing attack and one of the slowest tempos in the nation (130th), Miami’s offense wins through efficiency, protection, and precision rather than elite playmaking (110th in explosiveness).
Miami Player to Watch on Offense: QB Carson Beck
Carson Beck turned in a bounce back campaign after transferring in from Georgia, completing 74.7% of his passes for 3,072 yards and a 25–10 TD-INT line while ranking among the nation’s most accurate quarterbacks. His PFF passing grade (82.4) and adjusted completion rate (81.5%) reflect high-level command of the offense, consistently delivering on-time, in-rhythm throws with only a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate. Beck paired that precision with strong down-to-down reliability, posting a 49.7% success rate and 9.0 ANY/A despite facing pressure on 14% of dropbacks and taking sacks on just 2.5% of them. He contributed only situationally on the ground, adding 108 yards and a touchdown with a modest 31% rushing success rate. Altogether, Beck’s steadiness, accuracy, and efficiency helped Miami get this far, but his carelessness (10 INTs) could be Miami’s downfall if not reeled in for the Playoff.
The Miami Hurricanes Defense
Miami’s defense is one of the ACC’s most suffocating units, ranking Top 10 nationally in both success rate allowed (34.5%) and yards per play allowed (4.51). The Hurricanes overwhelm opponents with disruption, posting a Top 10 havoc rate driven by a dominant defensive line that contributes a No. 4 national pressure rate and holds offenses to just 4.0 yards per rush. Their coverage is equally sharp, allowing only a 34.1% passing success rate and excelling against zone concepts where they give up just 4.9 yards per dropback, the sixth-best mark in the country. Combine that with strong situational play, including a Top 10 scoring defense and the No. 9 third-down defense, and Miami fields a complete, consistently stingy unit that anchored the team’s 10-2 season.
Miami Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Rueben Bain
Rueben Bain is Miami’s most dangerous edge presence, piling up 49 tackles, 14 havoc plays, 10 TFLs, and 4.5 sacks while maintaining an elite 90.7% tackle success rate. His ability to generate pressure at scale stood out - posting 49 total pressures on 369 pass-rush snaps (13.3%) - while creating six sacks and forcing a fumble, showing he could both win early, and finish plays. Bain’s pass-rush profile was complemented by strong run defense, where he produced six run stops and anchored the edge with physical, assignment-sound play. His PFF defensive grades reinforce that well-rounded impact: a dominant 93.0 overall grade bolstered by a 92nd% pass-rush grade and strong marks in both run defense and tackling. Bain is a complete, every-down defensive end whose blend of power, technique, and motor made him the centerpiece of Miami’s top-tier defense.
Texas A&M and Miami: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- The Aggies are 5-7 ATS this season
- The Hurricanes are 7-5 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 8 of the Aggies 12 games this season (8-4)
- The OVER has cashed in 5 of the Hurricanes’ 12 games this season (5-7)
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Carson Beck OVER 0.5 Interceptions
When Carson Beck faces elevated competition, interceptions are sure to follow, often in bunches. He has been intercepted by USF (2 INTS), Florida, Louisville (4!), SMU (2) and Pitt, while avoiding miscues against the dregs of their ACC schedule. With A&M’s menacing defensive front causing disruption at a S-Tier level, I expect Beck to be frequently moved off his spot creating multiple turnover opportunities. With Beck currently listed at a neutral -114 to throw an interception, I’m taking his reasonable Over 0.5 interceptions line.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s playoff game between Miami and Texas A&M
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards Texas A&M a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on Texas A&M -3.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 51.5.
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