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Welcome to your March Madness hub for the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament.
Our college basketball experts will guide you through the March Madness bracket with March Madness expert picks, matchup breakdowns, and betting analysis for every game, right through to the National Championship.
Bookmark this page and come back for our latest college basketball picks.
March Madness picks for 3/20 & 3/21
| Game | Pick | Odds |
|---|
Iowa vs
Clemson | Under 129.5 | -116 |
Northern Iowa vs
St. John's | Ejiofor o7.5 rebounds | -120 |
UCF vs
UCLA | Dent o7.5 assists | +102 |
Queens vs
Purdue | Purdue -25.5 | -110 |
Cal Baptist vs
Kansas | Kansas TT u36.5 1H | -120 |
Furman vs
UConn | Bowser o11.5 points | -112 |
Prairie View A&M vs
Florida | Florida TT o95.5 | -120 |
Missouri vs
Miami (FL) | Pierce o1.5 threes | -115 |
Saint Louis vs
Michigan | Over 161.5 | -116 |
Louisville vs
Michigan State | Michigan State moneyline | -185 |
TCU vs
Duke | TCU TT u64.5 | -120 |
Texas vs
Gonzaga | Texas +6.5 | -110 |
Nebraska vs
Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt -2 | -110 |
March Madness best bets and SGPs
Friday, March 20
9 Iowa vs 8 Clemson
South Region, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT
Best bet
Neither the Iowa Hawkeyes nor the Clemson Tigers believe in moving quickly. The Hawkeyes play at a Bottom-10 pace in the country, while the Tigers sit just outside the Bottom-30.
And neither shoots well from deep, with Iowa generally reluctant to heave from long range and Clemson generally middling at it. Nor does either defense emphasize forcing 3-pointers.
These two defenses will encourage elongated half-court sets, grinding down this game. A la Big Ten Tournament games of 25 years ago, this may be a moment of “first team to 60 wins,” if either team even gets to 60 points.
Read Douglas Farmer's full Iowa vs. Clemson predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
15 Queens vs 2 Purdue
West Region, 7:35 p.m. ET, truTV
Best bet
The Purdue Boilermakers boast the highest-rated offense in KenPom history. They take care of the ball, shoot extremely well from everywhere on the floor, and generate second chances on the glass.
Meanwhile, the Queens University Royals are a fast-paced team who are terrible defensively. They sit outside the top 300 in adjusted defense, opponent eFG% (54%), and defensive rebounding rate.
Queens is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against high-major opponents this season, with the only cover coming by the hook. Purdue has the firepower to build a big lead and the depth to extend it when key starters rest.
Read Rohit Ponnaiya's full Queens vs. Purdue predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
12 Northern Iowa vs 5 St. John's
East Region, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
St. John's forward Zuby Ejiofor averaged more than seven rebounds amongst the trees of the Big East. The 6-foot-9, 245-pound senior will be battling MVC saplings in the Round of 64.
Northern Iowa has a couple of starters who run 6-foot-8 but are nowhere near Ejofor’s strength and athleticism.
For the most part, the Panthers don’t bother crashing the offensive glass and face their toughest challenge against this St. John’s defense. Ejiofor is also active on the offensive boards (3.3 per game).
Ejiofor was a beast on the glass in the Big East tournament, and projections call for 8+ rebounds versus UNI.
Read Jason Logan's full Northern Iowa vs. St. John's predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
10 UCF vs 7 UCLA
East Region, 7:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
The Bruins’ late-season surge has a lot to do with Donovan Dent.
He dished out a dozen assists in his first two Big Ten tournament games before getting hurt and averaged almost 10 assists in the 12 games prior to that minor injury.
Dent is fine for the opener against Central Florida. The Golden Knights are one of the weakest defenses the Bruins have faced in a while, with UCF giving up 14 assists an outing and taking on a UCLA offense that ranks in the Top 40 in assist ratio.
Projections sit as high as 10.3 assists from Dent on Friday.
Read Jason Logan's full UCF vs. UCLA predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
16 Prairie View A&M vs 1 Florida
South Region, 9:25 p.m. ET, TNT
Best bet
The Florida Gators have cracked 100 points five times this season, exceeding this lofty prop two other times. Their first two times in triple-digits came against their only two opponents rated worse by KenPom than the Prairie View A&M Panthers.
Both North Florida and Saint Francis play at an accelerated pace, ranking No. 30 and No. 45 in Pomeroy’s pace stat this season.
Uh oh, Prairie View A&M ranks No. 23, even faster.
That many possessions will give the Gators’ talent edge too many chances at easy buckets.
Read Douglas Farmer's full Prairie View A&M vs. Florida predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
13 Cal Baptist vs 4 Kansas
East Region, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
Kansas isn’t thinking about California Baptist.
The second the bracket dropped, KU saw Duke waiting in the second round, and thoughts of the Blue Devils started dancing in its head.
And then there’s star Darryn Peterson, whose priority has been protecting himself for the upcoming NBA Draft.
Kansas’ offense was in the toilet in the home stretch, especially in the opening 20 minutes. It’s averaged less than 33 first-half points in the past 10 outings, scoring fewer than 30 in four of those games.
The Lancers slow things down, protect the perimeter, and allow the 10th-fewest 1H points per game.
Read Jason Logan's full California Baptist vs. Kansas predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
15 Furman vs 2 UConn
East Region, 10:00 p.m. ET, TBS
Best bet
The UConn Huskies may seem like a tall task for Cooper Bowser, especially with shot swatter Tarris Reed patrolling the paint.
However, the Furman Paladins' half-court offense starts with Bowser at the top of the circle, setting on-ball screens and moving a lot without the basketball.
Bowser's recent output was tempered due to lineup changes, with the Paladins going smaller in the conference tournament. He scored 14 points in 24 minutes in each of the first two games before striking for 21 in 30 minutes in the final.
He’s tallied 12 + points in 14 of his last 17 games and is projected for 13 points on Friday.
Read Jason Logan's full Furman vs. UConn predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
10 Missouri vs 7 Miami
West Region, 10:10 p.m. ET, truTV
Best bet
The Miami Hurricanes are 324th in the country in opponent 3PT% (37.4%) since January 1. The Missouri Tigers offense will need to take advantage of that weakness which means getting the ball to Trent Pierce.
The 6-foot-10 wing is a matchup nightmare who can stretch the floor. His quick release and catch-and-shoot ability makes him especially dangerous with Miami struggling against movement shooters.
Pierce is coming off a game against Kentucky where he went 1-for-4 from deep. However, he cleared 1.5 treys in his previous six contests, knocking down 2.5 threes per game at a 42.9% clip.
Read Rohit Ponnaiya's full Missouri vs. Miami predictions for Friday, March 20.
SGP
Saturday, March 21
9 Saint Louis vs 1 Michigan
Midwest Region, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
Michigan’s defense is a concern without LJ Cason, and it shows up more in high-tempo games, as seen in allowing 80 points to Howard. This matchup could be even faster, amplifying those defensive challenges.
Michigan’s offense is elite across actions, ranking near the top in big cut + rolls, pick + pops, and general inside-out actions. That’s not ideal for Saint Louis, which is smaller and poor defensively at the rim.
Likewise, St. Louis should enjoy some of its own offensive advantages, particularly in transition. Michigan has been well below the national average, allowing 1.02 PPP.
Read Chris Hatfield's full Saint Louis vs. Michigan predictions for Saturday, March 21.
SGP
6 Louisville vs 3 Michigan State
East Region, 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
The Cardinals are already without top threat Mikel Brown Jr., and backcourt mate Ryan Conwell took some hard screens in that win over USF. A tenderized Louisville Cardinals now meets one of the most physical teams — on both ends of the floor — in the MSU Spartans.
The Spartans can bully UL, especially down low. The Cardinals gave up 44 points in the paint to the Bulls and rolled out the red carpet to the rim in the home stretch of ACC play.
Michigan State has capable bodies to battle in the paint, a deeper bench, and fresher legs. Getting MSU shorter than two bucks seems like a steal.
Read Jason Logan's full Louisville vs. Michigan State predictions for Saturday, March 21.
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9 TCU vs 1 Duke
East Region, 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Best bet
The TCU Horned Frogs’ first half versus Ohio State was a weird one.
Texas Christian isn’t a great 3-point team, but its 39 first-half points were fueled by 7-of-13 shooting from deep. That eventually dried up, as TCU made just 2 of 10 from beyond the arc in the second half and scored only 27 points.
The Frogs’ offense is normally driven by fastbreak buckets, points off turnovers, and offensive rebounds. Those are areas in which the Duke Blue Devils deny opponents.
Duke cleans the glass, takes care of the basketball, and its efficient offense forces opponents to start possessions from in-bounds, pushing them into the halfcourt.
Read Jason Logan's full TCU vs. Duke predictions for Saturday, March 21.
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11 Texas vs 3 Gonzaga
West Region, 7:10 p.m. ET, truTV
Best bet
The Longhorns' biggest weakness is their 3-point defense (35.4%) and tendency to foul (307th in opponent FT rate). However, Gonzaga attempts threes at one of the lowest rates in the country while ranking just 277th in FT rate.
On the other side of the floor, the Zags have impressive defensive stats, but that's puffed up by weak competition in the West Coast Conference.
They struggled to defend more athletic teams earlier in the season, and Texas has a highly efficient offense. Gonzaga doesn't have a wing capable of locking up Dailyn Swain or a rim protector to contain Matas Vokietaitis.
Read Rohit Ponnaiaya's full Texas vs. Gonzaga predictions for Saturday, March 21.
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5 Vanderbilt vs 4 Nebraska
South Region, 8:45 p.m. ET, TNT
Best bet
Congratulations to the Nebraska Cornhuskers for finally winning their first NCAA Tournament game. Here comes the natural letdown.
Nebraska ran through Troy in part thanks to a 26-10 advantage in points in the paint, which is to be expected against a mid-major opponent. The Vanderbilt Commodores will not yield such chances, as they boast one of the best interior defenses in the SEC.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has been knocked a bit because it failed to cover -12.5 against McNeese, despite winning by 10 in a rather slow game. If anything, the Commodores should receive a touch of praise, while the Cornhuskers are ripe to be disappointed.
Read Douglas Farmer's full Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska predictions for Saturday, March 21.
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March Madness betting 101
Single elimination changes everything. One cold shooting night or foul trouble can end a season, so aim for good prices and smart risk, not “can’t-miss” takes.
Start with the basics
Spread: In point spread betting, you’re wagering on how close the game stays. In the tournament, late-game fouling can turn a tight cover into a bad beat (or vice versa).
Moneyline:Moneyline betting is often the cleanest way to play a true March Madness upset, but you risk losing more frequently if you wager just on underdogs.
Total: Pace and shot quality matter in Over/Under betting, but so do tournament quirks like neutral rims, tight legs, and whistle changes.
Neutral-site mindset
Games aren’t played in familiar gyms, and crowds can be split. Travel, time zones, and quick turnarounds can matter, especially for teams that rely heavily on energy, depth, or shooting rhythm. When in doubt, lean on repeatable traits: defense, rebounding, and turnover control.
Why single elimination matters
Underdogs can be live because favorites feel pressure and have less room to “play through” a bad stretch. But favorites can also separate late when depth and free throws matter. Think in game scripts:
- Take the underdog + points if they can control tempo, defend without fouling, and protect the ball.
- Sprinkle a unit on the moneyline if they have a clear matchup advantage (e.g., elite 3-point volume vs weak perimeter D).
- Bet on the favorite if they can force turnovers, dominate the glass, or punish inside.
First half vs full game betting
Early nerves and unfamiliar sightlines can create slow starts. If you expect a tactical feel-out period, 1H Unders or 1H underdog spreads can be sharper than full game.
Overtime and endgame chaos
OT is usually included in spreads/totals, and late fouling can add 10–20 “free” points. Totals can swing wildly in the final minute, but don’t panic if you’re on the right side of pace and shot quality.
Still need help? Our Covers hoops analysts are here to provide you with March Madness expert picks from the First Four to the National Championship Game.
Popular March Madness betting markets
March Madness is a betting buffet - the key is picking the right market for your edge.
Futures: Futures are best when you’re early or disagree with the bracket. Conference tourney week and Selection Sunday can create mispriced numbers on title, Final Four odds, March Madness MVP odds, and region winner odds. Shop prices, and remember: a “good team” isn’t always a good futures bet if the path is brutal.
Game lines: The spread, moneyline, and total are the bread and butter once the bracket starts. Neutral courts, quick turnarounds, and unfamiliar sightlines can impact shooting (and totals) especially early. If you have a strong pace or matchup read, consider team totals or 1st half bets to isolate the edge.
Props:March Madness props shine when roles are stable and matchups are clear: usage, minutes, foul risk, and opponent style (rim protection, pace, rebounding). Ladders and alt lines can be powerful, but keep stakes smaller.
Same-game parlays: SGPs can be fun, but value varies. Compare the parlay payout to betting legs individually, and prioritize lines you’d play on their own.
And be sure to check out our expert NCAA bracket picks before the action begins!
Not intended for use in MA.
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