A widely shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds ahead of month-end: a Coinglass heat map of Bitcoin’s monthly returns, reposted by trader Daan Crypto Trades. The table spans 2013–2025 and shows November as the statistical outlier in Bitcoin’s calendar—both for eye-popping gains and for sharp drawdowns in certain years.

Bitcoin November Preview

“November is Bitcoin’s best month based on historical performance. By far,” Daan wrote on X, pointing to an average November change of +46.02% across the dataset. That figure is visibly distorted by November 2013’s +449.35% surge, the single largest monthly move on the board. He added: “The average gain over all these months is +46.02%. But this is heavily skewed by a single monthly gain in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.”

The raw counts back up the reputation without the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013–2024), 8 finished green—2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)—while 4 were negative—2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).

The median November change sits at +10.82%, a more conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 effect. Excluding 2013 entirely, the simple average for November drops to roughly +9.35% across the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality.

Context from the broader table matters. November’s average is the highest of any month on Coinglass’s grid, ahead of October’s +20.30% average, while December shows a far more mixed profile with a +4.75% average but a -3.22% median—an imbalance consistent with outlier-driven months.

September, long maligned by traders, retains a negative average (-3.08%) over the full period. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit gains in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by meaningful drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a negative December print to close the year (-2.85%).

Lessons From Prior Cycles

Daan’s framing extends beyond simple seasonality. “November & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It’s also where the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he noted. That observation lines up with the historical inflection points most market participants remember: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts.

The Coinglass grid cannot timestamp intramonth highs or lows, but the clustering of major pivots into the final two months of the year is consistent with the market’s folklore and with the returns pattern that shows both exceptionally strong up months and some of the cycle’s most punishing down months in this window.

The practical takeaway—again in Daan’s words—is not categorical bullishness, but regime risk: “All in all, an eventful last 2 months of the year generally speaking. Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year.” The heat map supports that characterization.

November’s distribution spans the widest extremes on record—from +449.35% at the top to -36.57% on the downside—with a two-thirds hit rate for green months and a median gain in the low double digits. December, by contrast, has produced both cycle tops and cycle bottoms despite a modest average, a reminder that average and median statistics can obscure the path risk that defines Bitcoin’s fourth quarter.

Seasonality is not destiny, and the sample is limited. Still, the data-backed message is clear: as November approaches, Bitcoin’s historical pattern has been less about quiet trend continuation and more about variance—the kind that has marked both euphoric blow-offs and capitulation lows.

At press time, BTC traded at $114,487.

Cantonese Cat used his October 28 video to zero in on the Dogecoin market structure, arguing that the meme-coin is nearing the end of a multi-year accumulation phase—and that the recent washout was a feature, not a bug, of that process. While he declined to publish numeric price targets in the video, he made the case that DOGE’s setup is maturing in lockstep with broader “risk-on” signals, with a familiar lag to Ethereum that historically precedes Dogecoin’s larger moves.

When Will Dogecoin Rally Again?

On structure, he was explicit. “Just looking at Doge here, you can see how […] Doge has been forming a cup over here for close to four and a half, five years now […] it’s just been building a big giant base.” In his read, the rounded bottom is the defining pattern of this cycle for DOGE, and it remains intact despite recent volatility.

He framed the sharp drawdown two weeks ago as necessary positioning rather than a break in trend: “You just had a great deleveraging event […] I’m not going to look at a lower low and think the trend is broken […] These are very healthy deleveraging before the next move up as far as I’m concerned.” He highlighted “a big giant wick” and “a lot of demand down below,” pointing to what he sees as resilient spot support through the base.

Timing, not targets, was the centerpiece. He reiterated that Dogecoin typically follows Ethereum with a delay once ETH clears its own major resistance bands. “Whenever we get closer to the end of the rounded bottom […] that’s when Ethereum breaks out above the resistance zone and goes up a lot higher. Thus, Doge runs together with Ethereum,” he said, adding: “There is a lag. I would say the lag is probably maybe a couple months between Ethereum breaking up and Doge finally breaking above this rounded bottom here and going up.”

He made a similar observation using risk proxies, noting that DOGE moves have historically trailed small-cap-led risk cycles by several months, though he cautioned that the exact interval can vary. Via X, he added “DOGE lags behind IWM [iShares Russell 2000 ETF] all-time-high breakout by about 2 to 4 months before it takes off.”

Cantonese Cat also pushed back on the view that a sequence of lower lows automatically invalidates the DOGE setup, arguing that this occurred in prior cycles just before outsized rallies. “A lot of people look at this, ‘that’s a lower low […] the cycle is over.’ Well, it doesn’t work that way. That’s a lower low right there. Next thing you know, it just went a lot higher,” he said, tying the observation to the current “healthy deleveraging” and the persistence of the rounded-bottom structure.

If the video offered the structural blueprint, his same-day post on X clarified his stance on headline targets. “I realize that it’s stupid to call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when price is at 20 cents. If I was smart like others, I should just call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when it’s $2 or $4.” The comment is consistent with his prior price predictions.

Inside the video update, the analyst instead emphasized the sequence he expects to matter—ETH strength first, DOGE follow-through second, with the magnitude determined by how far the broader risk cycle runs once momentum rotates.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.20.

The Cardano weekly chart is still looking strongly bullish according to independent technician Charting Guy (@ChartingGuy on X) who resurfaced his long-running Fibonacci roadmap and channel study.

Can Cardano Top $6 This Cycle?

His latest post on X on October 26 noted that “ADA is fine as long as uptrend holds,” a view that is anchored in a multi-year rising channel that has contained price action since the 2018–2019 base. The channel features a lower rail now passing through roughly the $0.33–$0.35 area, a midline that has behaved as a recurring pivot since 2020, and overhead parallels that intersect with Fibonacci extension targets later in the cycle.

The chart history mapped on his visuals is orderly. The 2021–2022 bear trend, drawn as a steep descending line from the prior peak, ended into the channel’s lower support and resolved through a series of falling trendline breakouts during 2023 and early 2024. Since Q4 2023, the chart has shown a series of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the ADA price is again guided by a falling trendline.

Everything in the layout revolves around the Fibonacci ladder. The retracement set on the right margin—derived from the 2021 peak to the cycle low—marks 0% at $0.23488, then $0.33360 (0.136), $0.43180 (0.236), $0.62932 (0.382), a mid-range 0.5 at $0.85, $1.15694 (0.618), $1.43911 (0.702), $1.78464 (0.786), $2.32189 (0.888), and $3.09981 (1.000). Above that stack, the cycle extensions are plotted at $6.25325 (1.272), $9.00941 (1.414) and $15.26831 (1.618).

Those numbers are consistent with how the analyst framed the market earlier in the year. On April 27 he wrote that “ADA fibs are very important here. The 0.618 is a STRONG resistance… the 0.382 MUST hold… neutral until one of these breaks on a weekly close.” That roadmap has aged intact.

Rallies through spring and summer repeatedly stalled in the 0.500–0.618 zone, with the 0.618 level at $1.15694 capping advances. Pullbacks, in turn, have found bids near the 0.382 pivot at $0.62932.

On September 18, after that rejection, he updated that “ADA higher low … higher high pending… still targeting 1.272 fib this cycle,” tying the price structure back to the extension grid. The implication is not casual moon-math; it is geometric. If ADA continues to defend the uptrend defined by the channel’s lower rail and, crucially, converts the 0.618 retracement at $1.15694 into support on weekly closes, the path reopens into the upper retracement shelf—$1.43911 at 0.702 and $1.78464 at 0.786—before confronting the 0.888 marker at $2.32189.

A yellow waypoint for a higher high (on the main chart) sits near ~$2.30, deliberately aligning with that 0.888 level to flag a logical checkpoint for the next impulsive leg beneath the full retrace at $3.09981.

Only beyond that zone does the headline question come into play. The analyst’s cycle objective is the 1.272 extension at $6.25325. On his canvas, that target is not an orphaned price label; it intersects with the upper parallels of the multi-year rising channel further out in time, which means the extension is technically consistent with the same structure that has governed ADA since the last cycle’s base.

The risk management side of the ledger remains equally explicit: lose the 0.382 at $0.62932 on a weekly closing basis and the neutral-to-constructive stance is impaired, pushing focus back to $0.43180 and $0.33360, with the 0% anchor at $0.23488 defining the absolute boundary of the cycle floor inside the channel’s lower third.

As the latest candles on the charts show, ADA sits mid-channel with the higher low confirmed and the range unresolved beneath descending trendline supply. The triggers are unchanged and numerically clear. A sustained weekly close above $1.15694 would validate an attempt toward $1.44, $1.78, and $2.32, with $3.10 the final retrace before extension math takes over.

A failure through $0.62932 would flatten the uptrend call. Between those guardrails, the analyst’s October 26 message reads less like bravado and more like a conditional statement embedded in the chart itself: Cardano can still reach $6.25 this cycle—but only if the uptrend continues to hold and the 0.618 ceiling finally gives way.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.67.

Popular technician Charting Guy (@ChartingGuy) calls Shiba Inu “weak and choppy” and suggests the token may not break out until late in the current crypto cycle. Sharing a weekly Shiba Inu chart, he wrote on Oct. 26, 2025: “SHIB has been weak and choppy all cycle. Won’t do anything until the end imo.”

How High Can Shiba Inu Price Go?

The below TradingView chart is a weekly SHIB/USD study anchored to a Fibonacci ladder. The price marker on the right rail reads $0.000010205, placing SHIB fractionally below the 0.236 retracement band annotated at $0.000011043.

Above that, the chart maps successive overhead levels at 0.382 near $0.000016434, 0.5 around $0.000022661, 0.618 near $0.000031247 and 0.786 at about $0.000049369. The red 1 line flags $0.000088410, with higher extension markers plotted at 1.272 ≈ $0.000185406, 1.414 ≈ $0.000272917 and a terminal 1.618 ≈ $0.000475605.

A stylized projection trace on the chart depicts a late-cycle, near-vertical advance that only materializes after a prolonged base and then stalls inside the 1.0–1.272 cluster before breaking above the 1.272 Fib extension and topping below the 1.414 Fib extension roughly at $0.000022; the path visually reinforces the author’s contention that SHIB underperforms until the “end.”

In a separate post on Oct. 24, Charting Guy ranked market structures across majors and large-cap altcoins, explicitly placing SHIB in his “Bad Looking Charts” bucket while labeling Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, BNB and Stellar as “Good Looking Charts.” His list read, in part: “Good Looking Charts: BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, XLM … Decent Looking Charts: XDC, DOGE, PENGU, ADA, ONDO, SUI, AAVE, LTC … Eh Looking Charts: PEPE, FLOKI, FLR, LINK, BCH … Bad Looking Charts: SHIB, WIF, ETC, AVAX, FET, RENDER, INJ, CRV, ALGO, SOLO, COREUM, NEAR, VET, COMP, DOT, IOTA, FIL, ATOM, And many more.”

What To Expect

The technical message is unambiguous: on a weekly timeframe, SHIB remains capped beneath early Fibonacci thresholds that many chartists treat as momentum gates. Remaining below 0.236 typically signals that price has yet to reclaim even the shallowest retracement of the prior cycle; clearing it often opens room to test the 0.382–0.5 midpoint zone where trends either accelerate or fail.

In Charting Guy’s map, structurally meaningful inflection areas stack tightly from roughly $0.000016 to $0.000031, with the 0.618 level near $0.000031 attributed the role of a trend-confirmation threshold. The cycle-top roadmap he drew concentrates risk and reward into the higher cluster around $0.000088 to $0.000185, a range often watched by Fibonacci practitioners for exhaustion and distribution in late-stage moves. However, a rise to $0.00022 could still mean an incredible upside for SHIB of around 2,055.81%—a roughly 20.56-fold increase.

Contextually, his relative-strength table is just as important as the levels. By grouping SHIB with other “bad looking” structures while upgrading Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB, he is signaling an expectation that market breadth will remain narrow and quality-led before any speculative rotation into meme-beta like SHIB. That framework aligns with his succinct call that SHIB “won’t do anything until the end,” implying a sequencing view rather than a categorical dismissal.

At press time, SHIB traded at $0.00001046.

The Dogecoin weekly chart is flashing a cluster of technically constructive signals, according to crypto analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow), who published a four-panel weekly read on DOGE on Oct. 27. Price is currently hovering near $0.208 on Binance spot, and the setup he highlights pivots on four independent checks: the cycle-high anchored VWAP, Ichimoku “Katana” support, a 0.5 log-scale Fibonacci hold, and conspicuously light sell-side volume during the recent drawdown.

4 Reason To Be Bullish On Dogecoin

In his post, Cantonese Cat wrote: “Attempting to reclaim cycle high AVWAP as support. Claiming Ichimoku Tenkan + Kijun fusion (blue and red lines fused together), AKA Katana, as support so far. Holding 0.5 log fib from cycle high–cycle low as support so far. There’s been no volume so far during this downturn on multiple exchanges including Coinbase and Binance, and all it takes is just some volume to come in and we could reverse any downtrend in a hurry.”

On the anchored VWAP chart, the teal line measured from Dogecoin’s cycle peak tracks the market’s volume-weighted cost basis since the 2021 top. DOGE is pressing that band from above/at parity, attempting to convert it into support after a failed breakdown earlier this month.

On a weekly basis, closing and subsequently holding above the cycle-high AVWAP tilts risk-reward positively because it implies the marginal participant who bought since the peak is no longer underwater. Notably, the most recent weekly wick that probed below the band—printing a sharp stab toward the low-$0.09s—was retraced swiftly, with subsequent candles clustering back around ~$0.21. That rejection of lower prices right at the anchored VWAP argues against sustained distribution at current levels.

The Ichimoku frame reinforces the same idea. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are fused around ~$0.2009 on the weekly (a configuration the analyst labels “Katana”), and price is currently riding that confluence as support. The cloud (Senkou span) remains red and overhead, spanning roughly the $0.24s into the ~$0.29 region, which defines the near-term supply zone that would need to be cleared on a weekly close to confirm trend resumption.

Until then, the Katana acting as a shelf at ~$0.20 is the near line in the sand; lose it decisively and the bias flips back to testing deeper supports, but sustain it and the path of least resistance shifts to re-engaging the cloud’s lower boundary.

Fibonacci context adds precision to those levels. Measured log-scale from the cycle high to the cycle low, DOGE has so far defended the 0.5 retracement at $0.19070 on multiple weekly closes.

That 50% line is the pivot of the current structure: a confirmed weekly close and acceptance below would hand momentum to bears toward the 0.382 at $0.13847, while continued defense keeps the market pointed at successive retracement ceilings overhead—the 0.618 at $0.26261, the 0.707 at $0.33430, the 0.786 at $0.41416, and the 0.886 at $0.54318—before the full retrace to the cycle high marker around $0.73995.

Price has been oscillating in a broad $0.16–$0.27 corridor for months; sitting above the 0.5 while probing the AVWAP strengthens the case that the mid-$0.20s could be revisited if buyers can reclaim momentum.

Volume is the wild card—and the fourth reason the analyst cites for optimism. The weekly histogram across multiple years shows that persistent selloffs have been accompanied by contracting volume, with downward arrows on the chart denoting successive periods of declining activity into lows.

By contrast, the last major impulsive advance in late 2024 printed the cycle’s heaviest weekly turnover. The current downturn lacks that distribution signature; bins on Coinbase and Binance have thinned rather than expanded. In market-structure terms, falling volume on pullbacks is textbook corrective behavior, and it leaves the door open for a sharp reversal if/when demand returns.

Put together, the four lenses describe a market sitting on top of a stacked support cluster: the cycle-high AVWAP roughly at the current price, the Ichimoku Katana fused near ~$0.2009, and the 0.5 log Fibonacci at $0.19070 just below. The invalidation path is clear enough—a decisive weekly loss of the $0.19 handle would expose the $0.13847 (0.382) shelf—while the upside path is equally mapped: first reclaim the lower edge of the cloud in the low-$0.20s, then test $0.26261 (0.618), with any weekly close through that level shifting focus to $0.33430 and beyond.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.206.