Bitcoin’s technical structure remains decisively negative and will stay that way “until” a key resistance level is reclaimed, according to veteran analyst Josh Olszewicz in his latest video published today. Pointing to the Ichimoku Cloud and a stack of trend signals, Olszewicz said, “Below the cloud we’re bearish, above we’re bullish. We are currently below… [and] fully bearish on price and the expectation is lower lows.”

The fulcrum, in his view, is a reclaim of roughly $115,000. “I don’t really have anything bullish to say here at all until we’re back above $115,000 on BTC and $4,200 on ETH,” he said, adding that Ethereum’s setup is comparatively less negative—trading “in the cloud,” with what he still characterizes as “certainly not a long entry signal.”

For Bitcoin, he flagged a confluence of bearish cues: a bearish Chikou span on the weekly, moving-average crosses to the downside, and head-and-shoulders patterns both at larger and smaller scales. While he acknowledged a possible “falling channel” and even a broader “megaphone” that could complicate pattern reads, Olszewicz underscored directional risk in the near term: “If I were to randomly wake up and see price at $103k, $102k, that would not surprise me here,” even warning that “it’s possible we flirt with… below $100,000.”

The deterioration in derivatives premia underscores that message, he argued. “If you look at the basis on CME we are making multi-month lows here… you go to ETH [and it’s] also making significant lows. So there’s certainly no froth in this market based on premiums.” Spot flow doesn’t help either: “On BTC we’ve still got people sending hundreds of millions to exchanges seemingly every day… my guess is they are [selling] because you don’t send coins to an exchange for fun.”

Macro Headwinds For Bitcoin

Beyond crypto-native signals, Olszewicz tied the setup to a macro regime shift that has turned unhelpful at the margins. He highlighted a still-ongoing US government shutdown as a potential kink in liquidity transmission—“maybe when the government comes back… the pipes start moving again”—and warned of rising near-term volatility around a data drought: “We do have ADP employment on Wednesday… very, very closely paid attention to because there is a data drought on employment numbers.”

Since last week’s FOMC, he noted, rate-cut odds tightened materially “after Powell mentioned a comment about the fog. Got to slow down on the fog, he says,” with risk assets reacting poorly: “Equities didn’t like that… crypto certainly didn’t like that.”

He also flagged the inflation now-casting mix as a swing factor. “Trueflation [is] ticking higher consistently… you don’t want to be in this position where we are cutting into rising inflation,” he cautioned, while contrasting that with the Fed’s nowcast, which “doesn’t look as dire.”

A CPI headline beginning with a ‘3’ would be problematic in his view: “I suspect if we do get a three handle on headline CPI, markets aren’t going to like that.” Under the hood, he pointed to falling gasoline and used-car prints and easing rents as disinflationary, but called out sticky components like insurance.

Liquidity optics remain mixed: the reverse repo facility has seen periodic end-month spikes yet is “running on fumes,” and, crucially, the long-observed link between global liquidity gauges and BTC “has not reconnected in any regard since May, June, July.”

Dollar strength is an additional pressure point. “The dollar continues to look good, continues to push higher… and this chart looks phenomenal… a real problem” for Bitcoin if that uptrend persists, he said. In classic cross-asset contrast, he described the 60/40 US bonds/equity mix as technically constructive—“above the cloud, bullish TK cross, bullish cloud”—and noted that risk proxies like high-yield credit are diverging from the S&P 500, which he reads as consistent with crypto’s underperformance: “With BTC struggling, you see riskier parts of the market also pulling back to a greater degree than equities.”

Equities Need To Remain Strong

In equities, he argued there is “nothing to short” on the major indices right now—“SPY… looks great,” with the Nasdaq and semis echoing the same message—creating an awkward asymmetry for BTC: “If Bitcoin can’t find its way when the SPY and the Q’s look like this, we’re certainly in trouble because if this does reverse, that’s going to take BTC with it almost certainly.”

On crypto-equity linkages, Olszewicz observed that miners have outperformed for reasons outside of Bitcoin’s fundamentals: “If you look at the Bitcoin miners, those have been bullish. Why? Because of AI and not because of Bitcoin… anybody following that story has done very well this year.” He extended the caution to other high-beta tech themes—quantum names “look very tired… more and more like a head and shoulders”—while acknowledging individual standouts like Palantir, which he said is “breaking out of its own cup and handle,” even if near-term price action was choppy after hours.

The broader market psychology, in his view, is shaped by cycle age and wealth preservation. “A thousand days from the bottom, more and more people are just saying, okay, this is enough… if they’re rich, they want to stay that way… it makes some sense to take a little bit off the table.” Until the technicals change, he sees no reason to force trades: “Honestly, not much, probably just sit around and collect some cash. Wait for those A-plus setups to emerge.”

The trigger for a regime shift is unambiguous in his framework. As he put it at the outset, “Below the cloud we’re bearish… not a bullish expectation.” The condition for flipping that view is equally clear: “Back above $115,000 on BTC and 4,200 on ETH,” or, in this headline terms, reclaim the level—or remain “fully bearish.”

At press time, BTC traded at $103,634.

Arthur Hayes thinks Zcash can move an order of magnitude faster than most investors expect—and he spelled out why in a Coin Bureau interview released on November 3.

The former BitMEX CEO ties the new Zcash bull case to a three-part story that mixes technical maturation, visible shifts in on-chain behavior, and a looming supply inflection. “I think that 10% to 20% of the value of Bitcoin quite quickly is something that Zcash could achieve,” he said—an estimate that, at current Bitcoin prices, translates to roughly $10,000–$20,000 per ZEC.

Why Zcash Could Skyrocket To $10,000-$20,000

For Hayes, the technology is no longer the 2016 experiment that divided the market over ceremony theater and cryptographic trust. He recounted being “deep into Zcash in 2016” when BitMEX listed a pre-genesis futures market and spot prices briefly printed around “$3,000 a coin on Poloniex” before supply filled in.

What’s changed, he argues, is the removal—by protocol upgrades—of the original single biggest credibility drag. “One of the big issues with Zcash back then was this trusted setup issue… but essentially, I think it was the Halo 2 upgrade recently removed or maybe a few years ago removed that trusted setup issue.” That, in his telling, reframes Zcash from a clever but encumbered R&D project into a privacy asset whose cryptography now clears the institutional sniff test.

He couples that with direct user-level experience. Hayes says he installed Zashi, Zcash’s flagship wallet, and used Near Intents flows to shield and swap, which he likened to an industrial-strength mixer. “When you do that, it’s essentially like Tornado Cash on steroids,” he said, emphasizing that the resulting output asset “appears, but it’s not linked to any other transaction.”

Costs remain a friction—“It’s definitely not cheap yet”—but he points to trend data he has reviewed showing a secular rise in actual privacy usage: “the amount of shielded transactions is approaching I think 30%, up from like a few percentage points when I cared about Zcash a long time ago.” In other words, the privacy feature set is not just theoretically stronger; it is being used.

The demand narrative rests on a simple claim: in the age of on-chain forensics and AI-enabled pattern recognition, true cash-like privacy is a product with differentiated utility. Hayes draws a sharp line between pseudonymity and privacy. “I believe in privacy coins… I think Bitcoin being synonymous is actually a good thing because I want to be able to track Bitcoin, but I also want to have internet cash where there is no traceability of that.”

He contrasts Zcash with Monero’s recent headlines, citing reports that “the Japanese authorities were able to deanonymize Monero by… linking together different disparate parts of some information.”

Scarcity is the third pillar. Hayes flags the Zcash halving “coming up in a few weeks, November,” framing it as the timing catalyst that could supercharge reflexivity if investor attention and liquidity arrive in tandem. The supply cut is not the entire story for him—he dismisses halving dogma in Bitcoin—but he does view a synchronous demand narrative plus a mechanical issuance drop as unusually potent for a small-float asset when a privacy bid is already rising on-chain.

Liquidity and access are precisely why he sees the setup as asymmetric. Zcash is not broadly quotable, which is a risk and an opportunity. “I hit up… eight or nine OTC brokers. Only two brokers would quote me Zcash,” he said, describing how hard it was to acquire size through traditional venues. He expects that, if the price begins to trend, the path will run through permissionless rails rather than regulated exchanges. “If the price rises high enough… I can buy it on one of these decentralized exchanges and that’ll be how you really get access… just like how Bitcoin was back [then].”

Hayes also addresses the change in his own posture, including what catalyzed it. He credits a dinner during Token2049 with Naval Ravikant, who “started shilling me on Zcash,” prompting him to push past his 2016-era objections and re-underwrite the protocol. “I bought a few million bucks on the spot at that point,” he said, adding that he kept buying “even though I bought it after the 80% pump when Naval sent out that tweet.”

Hayes believes the upside can compress into weeks rather than years. In his words: “I’ve bought a lot of it… I’m still buying it. I think that this is probably going to be one of my better trades of the cycle.”

At press time, ZEC traded at $464.

On November 2, 2025, crypto analyst Ignas | DeFi distilled crypto’s current standoff into a clean ledger of pros and cons.

The Bearish Case For Crypto

The first bear pillar is the “AI bubble” overhang. Late-October headlines crystallized the debate as Nvidia briefly breached a $5 trillion market value, a milestone that sharpened concern that equity valuations tied to AI infrastructure spending may be running ahead of realized returns.

Point two—“bullish news fail to pump”—was on display as “Uptober” ended with a whimper for the crypto market. Despite intermittent policy tailwinds and strong ETF inflows mid-month, both Bitcoin and Ethereum faded into month-end, and US spot ETF flows turned sharply negative over the final three trading days of October, a pattern consistent with risk aversion after the Oct. 10–11 shock.

That shock, the “10/10 crash,” is the third bear lever. The two-day downdraft followed a sudden tariff escalation threat from the White House and produced one of the largest one-day liquidations in crypto history, spurring a rush for downside hedges and leaving the market probing for “dead entities” and hidden impairments.

Cycle timing is Ignas’ fourth bear note. The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024 (block 840,000). Prior cycles do not map one-for-one, but the post-halving window is a pattern which gets a lot of attention at the moment. If the “cycle is not dead,” a Bitcoin top may already be in or is looming by the end of the year.

“Old OG wallets selling” is the fifth bear claimant—and, for once, the chain tells a clear story. Since mid-October, long-term holders have materially increased net distribution, with Glassnode and other trackers flagging outflows on the order of tens of thousands of BTC, alongside headline-grabbing awakenings of Satoshi-era wallets. This does not prove panic, but it does inject supply at a delicate moment.

Negative ETF flows round out the bear list. Farside’s fund-by-fund ledger shows pronounced outflows on October 29–31 across several US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with total daily net redemptions exceeding $470 million on October 29 and $488 million on October 30, before another hit on October 31 (191 million). While October closed with a inflow total of 3.424 billion, the message: the “fast money” cohort that chased the summer breakout was, at least temporarily, in retreat.

Buffett’s caution is the macro bear exclamation point. Berkshire Hathaway’s third-quarter print revealed a record $381.7 billion cash pile and a twelfth straight quarter as a net seller of equities—a posture that telegraphs wariness about broad risk assets and liquidity conditions even as operating earnings rise. For crypto, this is not a direct flow, but it is a bellwether for global risk appetite.

The Bull Case For Crypto

The bull case, however, is not hand-waving. Start with “liquidity easing & interest cuts.” The ECB has already delivered substantial easing this year and paused; the Bank of England has begun cutting; and in the US, the Federal Reserve is also expected to close out the year with two more cuts while ending quantitative tightening.

Ignas also says “no clear euphoria,” and—empirically—he’s right. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index spent the past week toggling between “Fear” and low “Neutral,” printing in the mid-30s to low-40s as of November 3. That’s a long way from the 80s–90s “extreme greed” that often sets up blow-off tops, and it supports the idea that positioning is not yet dangerously crowded.

Institutional adoption remains the quiet compounding force in the bull ledger. With $30.2 billion year-to-date inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs are fueling most of the market strength.

On policy, the US did more than chatter in 2025: the Senate passed, and President Trump signed, a bipartisan stablecoin law in July. A broader market-structure bill remains in play, but even the stablecoin win is non-trivial for on-chain liquidity and payments rails.

Seasonality also favors patience. Since 2013, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter on average, with multiple cycles posting outsized November–December runs.

Then there’s the stablecoin plumbing. Despite October’s chaos, aggregate stablecoin float sits around $307–308 billion and notched fresh all-time highs in mid-October—a sign that dry powder inside crypto’s own rails remains abundant and ready to mobilize if confidence stabilizes. As of today, DefiLlama pegs the total at roughly $307.6 billion.

Finally, the US–China trade war has seen extremely positive progress. “This is the BIGGEST de-escalation yet. Under the new US-China trade deal, President Trump made a HUGE agreement with China: China will suspend ALL retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4th. And, China will suspend or remove ALL retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken since March 4th. This is not getting nearly enough attention,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote via X on Sunday.

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.56 trillion.

Bitcoin’s on-chain picture is flashing a rare combination: substantial profits across cohorts, rising realized capitalization, and record network hashrate—yet none of the price-accelerating euphoria that typically marks late-stage bull legs. That is the central takeaway from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s latest thread, which parses holder cost bases, cohort profitability, leverage, and the evolving role of ETFs and corporate treasuries in setting the tape.

Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

The headline number is startling on its face. “Bitcoin wallets’ avg cost basis is $55.9K, meaning holders are up ~93% on average,” Ju wrote, adding that realized capitalization climbed by roughly $8 billion this week, a clean read that “on-chain inflows remain strong.” Realized cap—an alternative valuation measure that sums coins at their last transacted price rather than today’s market price—has historically served as a lower-variance proxy for true money-at-work. Its continued rise typically implies that fresh cost basis is being set higher on chain, even when spot stalls.

So why hasn’t price budged in tandem? Ju’s answer is straightforward: “Price hasn’t gone up because of selling pressure, not because demand was weak.” That framing is consistent with a market digesting gains while liquidity providers and profitable cohorts distribute into strength. It also helps explain the co-existence of healthy inflows with flat price action around the $110,000 handle that Ju cites as the current print.

Where the marginal demand is coming from—and where it has slowed—matters. According to Ju, “New inflows mostly come from ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, while CEX traders & miners are sitting on ~2x gains.” He broke out estimated cohort cost bases and mark-to-market performance as follows: “ETFs / Custodial Wallets: $112K (-1%), Binance Traders: $56K (+96%), Miners: $56K (+96%), Long-term Whales: $43K (+155%). Current Price: $110K.”

If those estimates hold, short-horizon institutional buyers are hovering near breakeven, while long-tenured entities still carry deep embedded profits. That distribution dampens forced selling risk at the very top but also withholds the kind of fresh momentum that typically arrives when new buyers push decisively into the money. Valuation context helps. Ju notes that in pronounced bull phases, market cap tends to outrun realized cap, creating a widening “valuation multiplier.” “When the growth rate gap between market cap and realized cap widens, it shows a stronger valuation multiplier,” he wrote.

“Roughly $1T in onchain inflows has created a $2T market cap. The gap seems moderate for now.” A moderate gap is a double-edged signal: not obviously frothy, but also not the kind of exuberant expansion that ends cycles. It complements Ju’s assessment of large-holder positioning: “Whales’ unrealized profits aren’t extreme.” That scenario admits two interpretations he spelled out explicitly: “Hype hasn’t arrived yet—we’re still far from euphoric sentiment.” Or, “This time is different—the market is too big for extreme profit ratios.”

Perpetuals and collateral flows round out the microstructure picture. Ju highlights a “sharp” drop in BTC moving from spot-focused venues to futures exchanges—an indication that “whales are no longer opening new long positions with BTC collateral as actively as before.”

If the marginal long is no longer pledging coins, the market loses a mechanical source of bid intensity and convexity from collateralized positioning. Yet leverage itself has not reset: “Bitcoin perp leverage remains high despite the recent wipeout,” Ju writes, pointing to ratios such as BTC-USDT perpetual open interest relative to exchange USDT balances and to USDT market cap.

In simple terms, conviction longs appear less collateral-heavy in BTC, but system-wide leverage, as proxied by perps, remains elevated versus two years ago. That combination can suppress clean trending behavior: fewer collateralized longs to chase upside, but enough leverage in the system to impose choppy liquidations.

Hashrate and industrial supply trends complicate the narrative further. “Bitcoin hashrate keeps hitting new highs (~5.96M ASICs online). Public miners are expanding, not downsizing, which is a clear long-term bullish signal. The Bitcoin ‘money vessel’ keeps growing.”

Rising hashrate plus expanding public miner fleets typically points to forward investment and confidence in long-run fee and subsidy economics. It does not, however, guarantee short-term price appreciation; if anything, it can expand miner treasury management needs, interacting with market liquidity in ways that are neutral-to-price absent fresh demand.

New Demand Push Needed

The demand side, in Ju’s read, is presently dominated by two channels: “Demand is now driven mostly by ETFs and Strategy, both slowing buys recently. If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns.” That is a clean, falsifiable thesis: if primary institutional conduits re-accelerate, spot should regain buoyancy; if they remain tepid, realized cap can still grind higher on steady inflows while price chops as distribution absorbs them.

Cohort profitability provides an additional boundary condition for scenarios. “Short-term whales (mostly ETFs) from the past 6 months are near break-even. Long-term whales are up ~53%,” Ju wrote. Historically, cycle tops have often coincided with extreme unrealized profit ratios for dominant cohorts, creating structural sell pressure when every marginal uptick unlocks significant gains.

Ju is effectively saying we are not there. At the same time, he cautions that the market’s regime may have already decoupled from the textbook four-year cadence: “In the past, the market moved in a clear four-year cycle of accumulation and distribution between retail investors and whales. Now it’s harder to predict where and how much new liquidity will enter, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to follow the same cyclical pattern again.”

Taken together, the thread sketches a market with three defining traits. First, fundamentals of “money in” look resilient: realized cap rising, holders broadly in profit, and network security hitting new highs. Second, microstructure is unspectacular and even a touch cautionary: fewer whales seeding BTC-collateralized longs, while system leverage remains high enough to destabilize clean moves. Third, the demand baton is concentrated in ETF and corporate treasury channels that have recently eased off—the very actors whose re-acceleration could reignite momentum.

At press time, BTC traded at $107,609.

A stark line in the sand has emerged for Dogecoin. Market analyst Ali Martinez (X: @ali_charts) argues that the meme-coin’s near-term trajectory is binary around the $0.18 handle, pairing a channel-based price map with an on-chain URPD readout that concentrates risk directly below. His warning is unambiguous: “Dogecoin fate could hinge on $0.18. If it fails, $0.07 might be next.”

Dogecoin Needs To Bounce Now

Martinez published a one-day chart on November 1 depicting DOGE oscillating inside an ascending channel and presently testing its lower boundary. The chart print shows Binance’s perpetual pair near $0.187 at the time of capture, with a dotted path that either springs from this “buy-the-dip” zone toward the channel’s midline near $0.26 and ultimately the upper rail around $0.33, or, if the support snaps, ejects into a materially lower range.

He summarized the bullish path succinctly in a separate post attached to the same chart: “$0.18 looks like a strong buy-the-dip zone for Dogecoin before a potential run toward $0.26 or $0.33.” Pressed by a user on what had changed, Martinez replied: “Nothing has changed. On both posts everything depends on the $0.18 support level.”

On-Chain Data Confirms Critical Situation

The technical map is reinforced by on-chain positioning. Martinez shared a Glassnode UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) for DOGE partitioned by the all-time-high epoch. URPD bins supply by the last on-chain transaction price, highlighting cost-basis clusters that often function as support and resistance when those cohorts are confronted with drawdowns or break-evens.

The histogram Martinez posted features a conspicuous bulge around $0.073, labeled at 28,278,554,566.513 DOGE (18.66%), and a secondary local node centered near $0.17741885, labeled at 5,040,878,150.654 DOGE (3.33%). Moreover, the chart exposes a heavy 36+ billion DOGE cluster across $0.18–$0.21 — a critical zone that price has already broken below, adding pressure to the downside.

The implication is straightforward: there is a visible pocket of realized-price liquidity at roughly $0.18 that might catch price on first test; but should that shelf fail, the next dense cohort sits far lower, near seven cents, where nearly a fifth of supply last changed hands.

This pairing of a technical threshold with an on-chain vacuum is what underpins Martinez’s either-or framing. The channel study delineates $0.18 as structural support on the daily timeframe; the URPD shows why the downside air pocket could be deep if sellers force capitulation below that level.

Conversely, a defense of $0.18 would align with his mapped rebound toward the channel’s median near $0.26, with stretch potential to the upper boundary around $0.33 if momentum persists. In Martinez’s words, “everything depends on the $0.18 support level.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.173.