Bitcoin’s recent wobble has split analysts. Some warn of a deep pullback while onchain trackers point to a mild correction that could already be ending.

Traditional Analysis Shows Risk

According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone’s post on X, the move under $100,000 may not be finished. He called a fall from recent highs a possible “Speed Bump Toward $56,000,” and said that past rallies often reverted toward the 48-month moving average, now near $56,000.

That view implies the potential for a sharp drop — almost 50% from recent peaks — if the current downtrend keeps going. Short, stark statements from established market commentators have pushed concern among some investors.

Onchain Signals Point To A Milder Decline

Reports have disclosed data from Glassnode and XWIN Research Japan that paint a different picture. Bitcoin slipped to $99,000 on Nov. 4, the first time in over four months it fell below the $100,000 mark, but it later recovered to around $101,500, according to Coingecko.

$100,000 Bitcoin – a Speed Bump Toward $56,000? “Look at the chart” has been a mantra from Bitcoin bulls, but the market gods can refresh humility when prices stretch too far. Synonymous with humility is mean reversion, and my look at the chart shows how normal it’s been for the… pic.twitter.com/ijzJ8L4SjT

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 6, 2025

Onchain measures such as the Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, have dropped to ranges that in the past marked local lows. Glassnode highlighted the Relative Unrealized Loss metric, which currently sits at 3.1%.

Readings at this level have historically matched mid-cycle corrections rather than full-blown bear markets. The firm noted losses under a 5% threshold have tended to be orderly revaluations, not panic-driven sell-offs.

Bitcoin: Long-Term Forecasts Are Being Recalibrated

Based on reports from ARK Invest, Cathie Wood trimmed her long-term Bitcoin projection by $300,000. She had earlier predicted a $1.5 million top by 2030; the cut implies a new peak target around $1.2 million.

Wood said competition from stablecoins in emerging markets is reducing some demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. The move shows that even long-term bulls are adjusting assumptions as the market shifts.

Market sentiment is being tested by numbers and by narrative. Short-term price swings have been large, but some key onchain indicators remain within ranges that have not signaled extreme stress.

At the same time, notable analysts and venture leaders continue to warn of much deeper retracements. Investors are left to weigh technical patterns, blockchain metrics, and evolving views on demand drivers like stablecoins.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

Could the Bitcoin price fall further after breaching $100,000, or will institutional buyers step in to support the current levels? Bitcoin price slips below $100,000 Bitcoin’s slide below $100,000 has reignited anxiety across crypto markets. After reaching an all-time high…

Bitcoin price has fallen off the $100,000 threshold after fighting to stay above the mark. At the moment, it is trading at $99,926. What triggered the sell-off? The price of Bitcoin has officially dipped below the psychological $100,000 mark, indicating…

On-chain metrics shows BTC entering an “extremely bearish” phase, with potential downside to $91K or even $72K if key support fails, though Glassnode sees it as a mid-cycle correction rather than full capitulation.

Bitcoin fell to a five-month low before staging a modest recovery, testing a crucial support line that traders say could decide the short-term fate of the bull market.

According to Crypto Onchain, Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $98,900 before buyers pushed the price back above $101,000 and later to $103,400 at the time of writing.

The top coin’s year-to-date gain sits at close to 10% after peaking at an all-time high of $126,300 in October.

Bears Break $107,000 Fortress

Based on analysis from Crypto Onchain and on-chain data provider CryptoQuant, Bitcoin lost the $107,000 support after roughly 130 days of trading in a band between that level and $123,000.

The move sparked heavy liquidations in the futures market. About $640 million in long positions were wiped out over a 24-hour stretch.

That figure, market watchers say, is the second-largest daily long liquidation event since June 2021. The October 10 event remains the largest on record for comparison.

The $101,000 level has taken on extra meaning. Traders point out that bulls stepped in near $98,000 and pushed the market back toward the lower trendline of a long-term ascending channel that has held since October 2023.

Reports have disclosed that defending this channel bottom would be read as a bullish sign, while a close below it could signal deeper losses and a break in the market structure that has supported the rally.

CME Gap Could Pull Price Lower

A nearby gap on the CME futures chart sits between $92,000 and $93,000, roughly 10% from current prices, and some analysts are watching that area closely.

Historically, Bitcoin has often filled such gaps before resuming its next leg up, and the gap is now a possible target if bearish pressure continues.

At the same time, strong buying interest around the $101,000 zone could halt any slide and force prices back up.

Liquidations And Market Mood

The cascade of liquidations amplified selling pressure, particularly among highly leveraged traders. Futures positions were forcefully closed, and this intensified the intraday drop.

Yet buyers were quick to take advantage of the lower levels, and the rebound to $103,000 level showed a degree of demand at current prices. Volume and near-term momentum will be key in determining whether that demand is durable.

Market participants say the most important signal will be a daily close relative to the ascending channel’s lower trendline around $101,000.

A sustained close above that mark would likely be read as a buying chance, while a decisive break and continued selling could open the path toward the CME gap near $92,000–$93,000.

Broader moves in US equities and large trader activity are also being monitored, since they helped trigger the recent pullback.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst VisionPulsed says Dogecoin’s window for a cycle-defining advance has narrowed to weeks, arguing that a failure to pivot higher in November would likely end the current bull-side setup and shift the conversation to downside risk in 2026.

In a late-November 5 video, the analyst framed Bitcoin’s weekly moving average as the near-term arbiter of trend and, by extension, Dogecoin’s fate: “By the end of the week, we need to see Bitcoin back over $103,000–$104,000. If that ends up happening, then you could start pushing the idea… we could start talking about a Dogecoin rally. If we close below $102k, 100k even, that’s your first confirmation that it is actually a bear market.

Dogecoin Needs Immediate Reversal

VisionPulsed anchored the Dogecoin outlook to a broader read on market structure and cross-asset momentum. He noted that when mapping the “top-10 dominance” basket ex-stablecoins, the market has “fully retraced the alt season from 2021.” Hitting the upper band of that multi-year channel “doesn’t mean it’s the top,” he cautioned, but it reinforces how mature the advance has become. The analyst emphasized that he is not declaring the start of altseason based on this single indicator; rather, he is situating Dogecoin risk in a market that has already re-tested a critical historical boundary.

The immediate gating factor, he said, remains Bitcoin’s weekly moving average and a cluster of corroborating signals. “All eyes are still on $103,000,” VisionPulsed said, pointing to a supertrend read that, so far, mirrors a March episode when price briefly broke below but never closed under it, avoiding a formal sell trigger. He contrasted that with 2021, when confirmed closes below the same tool delivered unambiguous sell signals.

The distinction matters because Dogecoin’s high-beta behavior to Bitcoin tends to compress timelines for both rallies and retracements, and any decisive break and close beneath the moving average would erase the already tight window for a Dogecoin impulse.

Momentum, in the analyst’s framing, is “so bearish that it’s screaming the end of the market cycle is near,” even though the monthly MACD has not crossed down yet. That lag on higher-timeframe oscillators leaves room for a “very little rally,” which in previous cycles still permitted outsized alt moves.

“In this bull market… every time we’ve bounced off the moving average, we’ve broken the prior high,” he said, making the conditional case that if the trend holds and Bitcoin reclaims the level into the weekly close, a final Dogecoin push remains possible. But he refused to extend the timeline beyond the near term: “I would argue that if we don’t actually go back up in November, it’s probably not happening.”

The calendar overlay is doing heavy lifting. VisionPulsed explored a scenario in which Dogecoin could peak in January, but stressed the math now strains credibility unless upside starts immediately. “Eighty-one days from now would be January… it’s starting to get to the point where it’s almost unachievable because you don’t want to keep stretching this out to January, February, March. At some point, you have to say it’s not happening.” The refusal to “move the goalposts” defines his base case: the bull thesis survives only if November prints a directional turn.

From a pattern perspective, he flagged a head-and-shoulders-like structure on Dogecoin and introduced a vivid downside marker he has used in prior updates. “That’s why this little pig is down here,” he said, referring to a graphic that labels a potential capitulation zone around $0.05 to $0.06.

If Bitcoin loses the weekly moving average and confirms the breakdown with a close, “the pig only is in play once Bitcoin is below that moving average,” and Dogecoin’s primary target would revert to “five to six cents.” On the Bitcoin side, he framed a bear-market base case of 40,000–50,000 on the assumption that both upside and downside retracements are shrinking versus prior cycles, implying “not 77%… you’d probably get 65% to 70%,” which would align with a mid-40k trough.

For Dogecoin specifically, he drew a clean decision tree. If Bitcoin reclaims $103,000–$104,000 into the weekly close and confirms above the moving average, the Dogecoin rally window reopens, with a shot at a late-Q4 to January run. If Bitcoin closes below roughly $102,000 and sustains weakness, “it’s bear market time,” Dogecoin likely gravitates to the “pig at 5 cents,” and “it might even break the pig honestly” depending on the severity of Bitcoin’s drawdown.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.16297.

The crypto market looks beaten down again, but one veteran investor says that may be the exact signal to stay calm.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin’s deep sell-off — now dragging prices below $102,000 for the first time since the last five months — is more about panic than fundamentals.

Retail Sentiment At ‘Max Desperation’

Hougan told CNBC this week that small traders are hitting a breaking point. “It’s almost a tale of two markets,” he said, describing what he sees as “max desperation” among retail investors after months of heavy losses and leverage blowouts.

He called the mood the most depressed he’s ever witnessed in crypto. For him, that level of hopelessness might be the final stage before the market finds its footing again.

Institutional Flows Continue To Matter

While smaller traders are backing off, larger investors appear to be sticking around. According to reports, financial advisors and institutional funds are still adding to positions through Bitcoin ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

The weekly inflows have slowed since the middle of the year, but they remain positive — a sign, Hougan says, that big money hasn’t lost faith.

Hougan argues that this split between retail panic and institutional confidence could shape how the market recovers.

“When I talk to advisors and institutions,” he said, “they’re still excited to allocate to an asset class that, if you zoom out, is delivering strong returns over the past year.”

Solana Staking Interest And ETF Activity

The growing influence of crypto funds goes beyond Bitcoin. Hougan said Bitwise’s new Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) pulled in more than $400 million in its first week before dropping nearly 20% since launching on Oct. 28.

Even so, he sees strong appetite for professionally managed crypto exposure among investors who prefer structured products over direct trading.

Not everyone agrees on how fast a rebound might come. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor recently predicted Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by year end — a call Hougan considers bold but not impossible.

He said a move toward $125,000 or even $130,000 is achievable if selling pressure keeps fading and demand from institutions grows.

For now, the market still feels fragile. Hougan admits there could be more downside before prices turn around, but he thinks the end of the sell-off is close.

Retail sentiment may be collapsing, yet institutional optimism is holding firm — and that, he says, could be the fuel for Bitcoin’s next rally.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView