June 25, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, U.S.; Ecuador’s Moises Caicedo and Piero Hincapie celebrate after the match. Mandatory Credit: Caean Couto-Imagn Images
Ecuador hopes to make an appearance in the last 16 of a World Cup for just the second time in its history when it faces Mexico at the Estadio Azteca on Tuesday. La Tricolor haven’t featured in the knockout stages of the tournament since 2006 but will end that drought with a last-32 showdown against one of the co-hosts in Mexico City.
Despite meeting on 28 occasions to date, Ecuador has managed to beat Mexico in only four of those matchups, the most recent of which was a 2021 friendly. However, the rivalry has become a lot more competitive in recent years, with Ecuador going four games undefeated against El Tri for the first time on its current streak.
Javier Aguirre’s men came through the Group A campaign without dropping a point and were one of only three teams in the pool phase to do so (France and Argentina being the others). Ecuador, on the other hand, scraped into the last 32 by virtue of a dramatic and unexpected win over Germany, which should send shivers down Mexican spines this week.
Neither team has any major injury concerns ahead of this one, meaning both managers could name unchanged lineups at the Azteca.
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The Round of 32 has already delivered shocks, shootouts and scenes that will live long in World Cup memory.
After Paraguay stunned Germany and Morocco sent the Netherlands home on penalties, Tuesday brings three more games, with France, Norway and co-hosts Mexico all looking to avoid becoming the next big casualty.
Ivory Coast face Norway, France meet Sweden and Mexico take on Ecuador as three more places in the last 16 are decided.
Here is what we know:
What is Tuesday’s schedule?
Ivory Coast vs Norway (noon/17:00 GMT) at Dallas Stadium, Texas, in the US
France vs Sweden (5pm/21:00 GMT) at New York/New Jersey Stadium in the US
Mexico vs Ecuador (7pm/02:00 GMT on Wednesday) at Mexico City Stadium in Mexico
Ivory Coast have found European opposition difficult at the World Cup while Norway have traditionally fared well against African teams. They have lost only two of their 19 meetings with CAF nations across all competitions.
The Opta supercomputer calculates Norway as the clear favourites to progress.
Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, Norway won in normal time 56.1 percent of the time, while Ivory Coast claimed victory in 21.6 percent. A draw after 90 minutes, sending the tie to extra time, occurred in 22.3 percent of simulations.
Norway are also strongly backed to reach the Round of 16 and equal their best-ever World Cup finish, while Ivory Coast will need to produce one of the tournament’s biggest upsets to keep their campaign alive.
What is the prediction for France vs Sweden?
France and Sweden are familiar opponents, having met 23 times across all competitions. France hold the advantage with 12 wins to Sweden’s six, while five matches have ended level.
Despite that long history, this will be their first-ever meeting at a FIFA World Cup.
The Opta supercomputer gives France a commanding edge heading into the Round of 32.
Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, France won in normal time 75.1 percent of the time, underlining their status as one of the tournament favourites. Sweden were victorious in just 9.5 percent of simulations, while 15.4 percent of matches were level after 90 minutes and required extra time or penalties.
What is the prediction for Mexico vs Ecuador?
Mexico and Ecuador have met only once before at the FIFA World Cup, with El Tri claiming a 2-1 victory during the group stage of the 2002 tournament.
Recent meetings have been far more evenly matched. The sides are unbeaten against each other in their last three encounters, with all three ending in draws, raising the possibility that this Round of 32 tie could be decided beyond 90 minutes.
The Opta supercomputer gives the tournament co-hosts the edge but expects a competitive contest.
Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, Mexico won in normal time 47.1 percent of the time, compared with 23.7 percent for Ecuador. A draw after 90 minutes occurred in 29.2 percent of simulations, making extra time a realistic possibility.
Factoring in extra time and penalties, Mexico’s chances of reaching the Round of 16 rise to 61 percent, while Ecuador are given a 38.9 percent probability of progressing.
Which teams have advanced to the Round of 16 and who has been eliminated?
The tournament has now moved into the Round of 32. So far, these teams have advanced to the Round of 16:
Canada (defeated South Africa 1-0)
Brazil (defeated Japan 2-1)
Paraguay (defeated Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw)
Morocco (defeated the Netherlands on penalties after a 1-1 draw)
What else is happening?
Morocco stuns Netherlands on penalties
Morocco beat the Netherlands 3-2 in a penalty shootout to reach the FIFA World Cup last 16 after a dramatic 1-1 draw following extra time in Monterrey.
Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou was the hero, saving Crysencio Summerville’s penalty before Ismael Saibari fired home the decisive spot-kick to send Morocco through.
Morocco will now face Canada in the Round of 16 in Houston on Saturday.
The match appeared to be heading for a Dutch victory after Cody Gakpo, playing just days after he and his partner announced the loss of their unborn child, put the Netherlands ahead midway through the second half.
Gakpo’s emotional World Cup goal
Cody Gakpo broke down in tears after scoring for the Netherlands against Morocco, just two days after he and his partner announced the loss of their unborn child.
The forward chose to remain with the squad despite the tragedy and received a standing ovation from Dutch fans when he was substituted in extra time.
Netherlands’ Cody Gakpo, kneeling, is congratulated by teammates after scoring his team’s first goal during the World Cup round of 32 soccer match between the Netherlands and Morocco [Ricardo Mazalan/AP]
Saibari celebrates with his mum
A heartwarming moment goes viral as Ismael Saibari, who scored the decisive penalty kick against Netherlands, celebrates Morocco’s big win with his mother on the pitch.
Germany’s campaign came to a stunning end on Monday as Paraguay pulled off one of the greatest upsets in tournament history, winning a dramatic Round of 32 tie on penalties.
Paraguay took a deserved 1-0 lead into half-time after Julio Enciso headed home from Matias Galarza’s cross in the 42nd minute.
Germany responded eight minutes into the second half when Kai Havertz glanced in Florian Wirtz’s cross to level the match at 1-1.
With neither side able to find a winner in extra time, the tie went to penalties. Havertz missed Germany’s opening spot-kick and the Germans failed to convert three of their five attempts, allowing Paraguay to seal a famous 4-3 shootout victory and book their place in the last 16.
Paraguay declares national holiday after stunning Germany
Paraguay President Santiago Pena declared Tuesday a national holiday after the country’s shock penalty shootout victory over Germany secured a place in the FIFA World Cup last 16.
Paraguay stunned the four-time world champions 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw following extra time on Monday, pulling off one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.
Paraguay became the second South American nation to declare a national holiday after a surprise World Cup victory over Germany. Ecuador was the first, doing so after its 2-1 group-stage win over the four-time champions.
¡Gigante Paraguay! 🇵🇾
Hoy celebra todo un país. Celebra la victoria de una selección que representa lo más profundo de nuestra identidad: la garra, la fe y la fuerza de un pueblo que nunca se rinde.
Gracias, Albirroja, por regalarnos esta alegría inmensa y por volver a unir a… pic.twitter.com/TNDU8wtctL
Translation: Giant Paraguay! Today, an entire country celebrates. It celebrates the victory of a team that represents the deepest part of our identity: the grit, the faith, and the strength of a people who never give up. Thank you, Albirroja, for gifting us this immense joy and for once again uniting millions of Paraguayans under the same flag. Decree No. 6280: the best things are worth the wait. Let’s go Paraguay!
US homeland security chief celebrates Iran’s exit
US Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said he “danced a happy dance” after Iran were eliminated from the World Cup.
Iran missed out on the Round of 32 on goal difference after a stoppage-time winner against Egypt was ruled out for offside, with their elimination confirmed when Algeria and Austria drew 3-3 on Sunday.
Speaking during a World Cup briefing on Monday, Mullin said he was “glad they’re done, and they’re not coming back”, adding he was happy when Iran’s visas were revoked and the team left US soil. He also said Iran had required more attention from US authorities than any other team at the tournament.
The comments add to Mullin’s public dispute with the Iranian team. Earlier in the tournament, he alleged members of Iran’s travelling delegation had attempted to bring someone with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps into the United States, an accusation the Iran Football Federation dismissed as “false, fabricated and entirely baseless.”
I’m just glad they’re done, and they’re not coming back,” Mullin said. “I was so happy when we were able to pull their visas and said they could leave the U.S. soil, and I might’ve sung a song or two or maybe even danced a happy dance.” https://t.co/j6LFv9Kuo4
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