Despite recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Bitcoin’s price reacted unexpectedly, declining when many anticipated a rise. However, market analyst Crypto Birb has identified ten indicators suggesting a potential surge may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Moving Averages

At the time of the expert’s post, BTC traded at $112,000. He pointed that with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gaining traction and market fear subsiding, the Bitcoin price appears to be consolidating before a significant upward movement, indicating that a breakout is imminent.

Currently, the Bitcoin price trades comfortably above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $102,934 and the 200-week SMA of $54,756. The correlation with the S&P 500 stands at -0.02, suggesting that Bitcoin’s movements are largely independent of broader equity market trends. 

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is supported by the 200-day SMA at $109,267 and a key trend line at $113,100. The relative strength index (RSI) is neutral at 50, while the average true range (ATR) has decreased to 3,495, indicating a calmer market environment. 

In terms of short-term bias, the market shows balance but is not bullish yet. The CTF Trailer indicates a bearish mode with a stop at $115,623, while the higher time frame trailer reflects a bullish mode with a stop at $114,601. 

Currently, Bitcoin’s trading range is between $110,000 and $117,800, and this compression indicates that an equilibrium is forming. The next significant movement is expected to occur once this range is broken.

Calm Before The Storm?

Sentiment within the market appears balanced, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 51, which reflects a neutral stance. Crypto Birb asserts that emotions have reset following last week’s spike in fear, creating a stable environment for sustainable price movements.

Volatility is also cooling off, with a 50-day volatility of 3,080 and an ATR of 3,495. This contraction in trading range suggests that traders are reloading positions rather than capitulating, and history shows that periods of calm consolidation often precede volatility shocks.

On the mining front, the economic landscape is looking favorable, with mining costs at $106,400 and a ratio of 0.94, indicating that miners remain moderately profitable after last week’s compression. Stable costs suggest no immediate pressure for forced selling, and network fundamentals remain solid.

Looking at the October outlook, the month-to-date performance shows a minor decline of 0.53%, which is still an improvement over the typical historic October average of 19.78%. This suggests a healthy reset within an otherwise strong seasonal backdrop.

A Potential 51% Surge Ahead? 

The expert further highlighted that historically, the fourth quarter has been bullish for the Bitcoin price, with an average gain of 51.04% over the past 15 years, resulting in nine winning years. If the current structure holds, Q4 is poised to remain a high-probability accumulation zone.

Lastly, data related to Ethereum ETFs indicates a quiet strength beneath the surface, with spot ETF volumes at $147 million and net inflows of $133.9 million. The total assets under management have reached $24.88 billion, and rising liquidity in altcoins complements the ongoing flows into Bitcoin, supporting a narrative of market rotation.

At the time of writing, however, the Bitcoin price has retraced back towards $110,439. Yet, still inside its current consolidation range that could result in a new uptrend for the leading crypto. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25-basis-point rate cut from the previous rate of 4.25%, aligning with market expectations. Despite this bullish development being highly anticipated by top experts as the best catalyst for the remainder of the year, Bitcoin (BTC), XRP, and Ethereum (ETH) led the market downturn following the announcement. 

Fed Chair Signals Uncertainty Over Further Rate Cuts

The selloff intensified after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated during his press conference that another interest-rate cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion.” This uncertainty has contributed to market volatility, as both cryptocurrencies and stocks have rallied this year in anticipation of lower interest rates.

If the Fed does not implement further rate cuts in December, it could lead to a rebound in the dollar, which would be detrimental for Bitcoin bulls.

Analyst Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer noted that options-derived implied movements for US equity indices suggest significant shifts around upcoming macroeconomic reports. He advised crypto investors to prepare for potential volatility.

However, market expert Timothy Peterson provided further insights on social media site X (formerly Twitter), predicting that the Bitcoin price could rise up to 12% over the next week, meaning that the leading crypto could surge toward $123,000. 

Analyst Foresees Positive Momentum For Bitcoin

In his analysis, Peterson highlighted Bitcoin’s performance surrounding Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and noted that since 2023, Bitcoin’s average movement after such meetings has been about 1.5 times its prior week’s performance. 

With Bitcoin having gained 4% in the week leading up to the Fed’s decision, Peterson anticipates a subsequent increase of around 7%, with a potential range of 0-15%. 

The FOMC, which sets US interest rates and guides monetary policy, often sees markets trade cautiously before meetings, followed by reactions once the uncertainty is resolved, with the expert concluding that despite the growing uncertainty, Bitcoin and the broader market could see a new leg up near record highs.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The second part of the year has seen a notable surge in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market has faced its share of uncertainty and significant corrections. 

With the Nasdaq recently surpassing the 26,000 mark, leading analysts are now suggesting that this milestone could be a clear indicator for Bitcoin to finish the year at new highs.

What Historical Patterns Indicate

According to experts at The Bull Theory, the pattern observed with the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs typically suggests a flow of liquidity, an increased risk appetite, and a shift of capital into growth assets. As this phase develops, it often sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant movement.

Data compiled by the analysts supports this assertion. Historically, in the first 30 days following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of approximately 7%. This return tends to grow, reaching about 14% within 60 days and climbing to an average of 25% by the 90-day mark. 

This pattern is not merely coincidental; it reflects a capital rotation where liquidity does not disappear but instead shifts from traditional markets into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. 

The current situation appears to follow a similar trajectory. The Nasdaq’s rise to 26,000 indicates a wave of liquidity building beneath the surface. With rate cuts beginning and quantitative tightening coming to an end, global capital is once again seeking yield. 

This scenario mirrors the conditions that contributed to Bitcoin’s significant breakouts in previous years, particularly in 2017, 2020, and 2023.

As such, the analysts note that the next four to five months may represent an acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a potential pause in equities, which could lead to crypto becoming the primary outlet for liquidity. 

Bitcoin Poised For Breakout Similar To 2020-2021 Cycle

Analysts like Ash Crypto also noted on social media that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart is revealing a repeating pattern reminiscent of the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional tech stocks. In both cycles, the October to March timeframe has historically prompted major upward movements. 

After a period of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair appears poised for another breakout. Should this pattern repeat, Bitcoin may see substantial gains compared to the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, Ash Crypto noted. 

Notably, this sets the stage for a major rally that could see Bitcoin prices surpassing current records of over $126,000. However, the market is still characterized by increased volatility, and there is no clear path ahead for BTC.

The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,350 after a 2% correction in Tuesday’s trading session, following an initial surge above $115,000. This puts BTC 6.5% below record highs. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Global financial services company Western Union is making a strategic move into the world of stablecoins, responding to the evolving landscape created by the recent passage of the GENIUS Act in the US.

On Tuesday, the company announced its intention to launch the US Dollar Payment Token (USDPT), a new stablecoin, alongside its Digital Asset Network designed to integrate digital and fiat currencies.

Western Union New USDPT Stablecoin

Built on the Solana (SOL) blockchain and issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, USDPT aims to broaden the options for transferring money for customers, agents, and partners, while also bolstering Western Union’s treasury capabilities. 

Through this initiative, the company plans to provide users with access to digital assets, allowing them to send, receive, spend, and hold USDPT with ease, supported by Western Union’s global compliance and risk management framework.

Devin McGranahan, President and CEO of Western Union, expressed the company’s commitment to harnessing emerging technologies to empower customers and communities. 

“As we transition into the digital asset space, USDPT will enable us to take ownership of the economics associated with stablecoins,” McGranahan stated. 

He also highlighted the significance of the Digital Asset Network, which aims to simplify cash off-ramps for digital assets by partnering with wallets and wallet providers, thereby allowing seamless access for customers via Western Union’s extensive global network.

Western Union anticipates that USDPT will launch in the first half of 2026, with plans for users to access the stablecoin through partner exchanges, ensuring broad availability and user-friendliness.

Stablecoins To Reduce Reliance On Traditional Banking

During Western Union’s third quarter of the year earnings call last Thursday, McGranahan revealed that the company has initiated a pilot program utilizing stablecoins for value transfer. 

He noted that this pilot aims to leverage blockchain technology and stablecoins to decrease reliance on traditional correspondent banking systems, which will help shorten settlement times and enhance capital efficiency.

Historically, Western Union has maintained a cautious approach towards crypto, primarily due to concerns regarding volatility, regulatory challenges, and customer protection. 

However, with the enactment of the GENIUS Act, McGranahan indicated that new opportunities are emerging for integrating digital assets into the company’s operations, enhancing efficiency, reducing friction, and ultimately improving the customer experience.

Western Union facilitates the transfer of billions of dollars annually, boasting a market capitalization of over $2.9 billion as of October 28, and generating more than $1 billion in adjusted revenue in the third quarter of the year alone.

Despite the announcement, SOL’s price has failed to react positively, currently attempting to hold the $200 line as the cryptocurrency’s next short-term support.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Market expert VirtualBacon recently suggested that the most significant event for the crypto industry this year is not the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving or the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but rather a potential shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) liquidity policy. 

After 18 months of tightening measures, the Fed is reportedly preparing to pause its quantitative tightening (QT) and may even initiate stealth quantitative easing (QE) once again.

What’s Next For The Crypto Market

In a recent post on social media platform X, VirtualBacon laid out a compelling argument linking liquidity pivots to altcoin cycles. In 2019, the Fed halted QT, which resulted in a rally for altcoins. Conversely, in 2022, when the Fed began QT, altcoins peaked. 

Now, as the Fed is expected to end QT in 2025, VirtualBacon anticipates a similar surge for altcoins. The correlation is clear: when the Fed increases liquidity, altcoins tend to rise. The pressing question now is when exactly QT will come to a close.

While the Fed may not explicitly label a shift as QE, the expert notes that the pivotal moment will arrive when they remove the language regarding “reducing the size of the balance sheet.” 

The last notable instance of this was during the 2019 repo crisis, when banks faced immediate cash shortages, prompting the Fed to inject $75 billion into the financial system. Although Powell claimed it was “not QE,” it effectively was, and following that intervention, Bitcoin tripled in value within months.

CME FedWatch Tool Shows High Probability Of Rate Cuts

Major financial institutions are already making predictions, with Goldman Sachs stating that the October meeting is the base case for QT to end, Bank of America expecting QT to cease by month-end, and Evercore indicating that the Fed is likely to signal an end to QT this week. 

The same indicators that caused market disruptions back in 2019 are signaling distress now. Regardless of official statements, it appears QT is nearing its conclusion, with stealth QE on the horizon.

This shift would facilitate a return of liquidity to the markets, which historically has driven crypto prices. Liquidity acts as the fuel for market movements, and the Fed is poised to refill this tank. 

The CME FedWatch tool currently indicates a 96.7% probability of a rate cut this month and an 87.9% chance of another cut in December. Powell recently hinted that QT would conclude “in the coming months,” signaling an imminent pivot.

M2 Money Supply Signals Upcoming Bitcoin Surge

Despite the current market uncertainty, VirtualBacon asserts that Bitcoin has not reached its peak. Out of 30 historical indicators that typically signal a bull market peak, none have activated yet, with data indicating there is still room for growth. 

The global M2 money supply continues to rise, which historically leads Bitcoin prices by 10 to 12 weeks. The expert added that since the beginning of the month, this money supply has been increasing.

This development indicates that Bitcoin’s next upward movement is already in the pipeline, albeit lagging behind the liquidity curve. Additionally, VirtualBacon forecasts that once the Fed pivots, a new altcoin season may commence. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com