Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, has revised her long-term outlook for Bitcoin, lowering her 2030 price target by $300,000. Specifically, Wood now expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency to reach about $1.2 million, as opposed to her earlier prediction of $1.5 million.
This article was first published on The Bit Journal.
Investment firm Galaxy Digital has updated its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2025; lowering its target to $120,000 from prior estimates.
The firm says holding the $100,000 level is crucial to keep the bull trend intact. This comes amid institutional flows, whale distributions and the start of what Galaxy calls a “maturity era” for the crypto market.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, announced the change to the Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000 in a recent note to clients.
The firm cited several reasons: large whale coin sales, capital rotation into other narratives such as AI and gold, reduced volatility due to passive flows and structural changes in the ecosystem.
Galaxy described this as the start of a “maturity era” for Bitcoin; a time where the asset’s behavior is less driven by price shocks and more by institutional absorption and integration.
“If Bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, the structural integrity of the nearly three-year bull market will be preserved, though the pace of future gains may slow,” Thorn wrote.
By setting the new target at $120K, Galaxy is toning down earlier, more aggressive forecasts of like $185K while still being bullish long term. The Bitcoin price forecast update shows how the market is evolving institutional expectations.
Several factors are driving Galaxy’s updated Bitcoin price forecast. The first is whale distribution. Galaxy noted that around 400,000 – 470,000 BTC were moved or sold in large blocks in recent months, which has created resistance at key levels.
Another factor is institutional flow dynamics; passive flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and large asset-manager participation have changed the way traders participate in Bitcoin markets, reduced volatility and changed liquidity profiles.
The flood of interest in other narratives like AI and gold have also diverted some capital, according to the firm.
Technical support is also a component of the Bitcoin price forecast. Holding the $100,000 level is now seen as a structural support. If that fails, the bull trend could get much weaker.
The firm also pointed to a flash crash of $20 billion in liquidations in October 2025 which “materially damaged” the bull trend.
All these factors combined; form the basis of Galaxy’s updated Bitcoin price forecast; a bullish view but calibrated to the new market mechanics.
While Galaxy’s Bitcoin price forecast is now at $120,000, other experts have different views. Some are still targeting higher year end levels, citing institutional ramp up and macro tailwinds. The firm Bitwise also described the current consolidation as a “quiet IPO moment”, implying more upside once the market wakes up.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said earlier that Bitcoin could drop below $100,000 before continuing higher and he’s projecting $200,000+ later in the cycle.
What stands out is the consensus around a certain point in the Bitcoin price forecast; holding $100,000 is central to almost every bullish scenario and many firms are adjusting expectations to reflect slower moving structural growth rather than rapid explosive gains.
| Expert / Firm | Forecast for Bitcoin end 2025 | Notes |
| Galaxy Digital | $120,000 | Revised down from a prior $185K, citing “whale distribution, non-BTC investments… entering a maturity era.” |
| CoinCodex | $104,545 to $143,700 | Range projection for 2025, based on technical-historical modelling. |
| Traders Union analytics team | Average near $102,884 | Statistical model projecting end-2025 value around this level. |
The new price forecast has several implications for participants and the crypto ecosystem. For institutional investors, the new target means a shift to structural consolidation rather than speculation.
For retail and derivatives markets, the focus on $100K support may trigger more attention on that level as a risk management point.
For the ecosystem as a whole, the forecast means Bitcoin’s next phase may be integration, infrastructure and adoption rather than pure price momentum.
From a valuation standpoint, markets may need to adjust. A $120K target by year end 2025 is bullish relative to current levels but conservative relative to prior peaks above $126K earlier in the year. The price forecast is thus tempered optimism; bullish but reflective of the changing dynamics.
Finally, the forecast highlights the importance of macro regulatory factors. ETF flows, institutional adoption, regulatory clarity and support frameworks are the notable levers that will influence the path implicit in Galaxy’s forecast.
Galaxy Digital’s new Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000 for 2025 means the market is recalibrating. While they remain bullish long term, they acknowledge the next phase of growth will be slower and more structural than previous cycles.
Holding $100,000 is the important. For investors and participants, the new Bitcoin price forecast means the market might see less wild swings, but more institutional moves and a shift from pure momentum to infrastructure and adoption.
Spot ETF flows: Capital moving into or out of exchange-traded funds; that track the basic cryptocurrency.
Flash crash: A sudden; sharp price drop over a short period; often triggered by liquidations; algorithmic trading or systemic stress
Maturity era: A phase in the crypto market where volatility is reduced; institutions are more involved and it’s more structural than speculative.
Support level: A price level where an asset tends to find buying interest and prevent further price drops.
Galaxy Digital has revised its Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000; by end-2025.
The firm cited conditions including whale distributions, rotation of capital into themes like AI and gold, passive flows via ETFs and a flash crash event; all of which prompted a re-calibration.
Galaxy says holding above $100,000 is needed to preserve the structural trend; a breakdown could kill the forecast.
Yes. The firm still believes the long-term structural case for Bitcoin is intact; even if the near-term target is lower.
Read More: Why Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Price Forecast to $120,000 for End of 2025">Why Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Price Forecast to $120,000 for End of 2025
Galaxy Digital has cut its 2025 year-end Bitcoin target to $120,000 from $185,000 in a new research alert circulated on November 5 and shared via screenshots on X by Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research. In the note titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Thorn situates the downgrade squarely in the context of a “major, multi-week selloff,” writing that “Bitcoin is trading below $100k for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse.”
Thorn stresses that the shift is cyclical rather than existential, stating plainly: “While bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, cyclical dynamics have evolved.” The firm frames the current backdrop as a decisive turn in market microstructure: “Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.”
That regime change helps explain both the tempered year-end target and the altered cadence of price discovery that Galaxy now expects. As Thorn puts it, “If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.” Short-term optimism is not abandoned: “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.”
The downgrade aggregates several identifiable drags, beginning with distribution patterns across the holder base and the market’s capacity to absorb them. Galaxy writes: “Significant coin transfers from old holders to ETFs and new institutional buyers signal maturity, not weakness, but have presented headwinds.” This redistribution—whales handing supply to passive and institutional channels—may strengthen long-term ownership but has, in Galaxy’s telling, blunted near-term momentum.
Positioning and leverage are the second leg of the argument. Thorn flags the “significant leverage wipeout from Oct. 10” and adds that it “continues to dent market liquidity and confidence.” The October flush sits at the center of Galaxy’s cyclical reassessment: forced de-risking weakened order-book depth just as large-holder distribution accelerated, leaving price vulnerable into the latest drawdown.
A third component is the rotation of capital and narrative attention into other trades. Galaxy is explicit that “Bitcoin started the year as the hottest investment narrative, but AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the Magnificent 7 have absorbed capital and attention that might otherwise flow into BTC.”
That diversion extends into crypto-adjacent plumbing as well: “Rapid stablecoin growth has redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payments infrastructure.” The net effect, according to the note, has been a drag on incremental demand for direct BTC exposure and a tougher funding environment for pure-play Bitcoin vehicles.
Retail participation, which defined prior peaks, is notably absent at sustained scale, and when it surfaces it tends to be flighty. Thorn writes: “Retail never fully returned at scale post-2021; when it did, the memecoin mania fostered short-termism that is not conducive to understanding and adopting bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.” Without sustained retail sponsorship, Galaxy expects ETF and institutional flows to “define BTCUSD behavior,” adding that “Passive Flows Dominate… lowering volatility and moderating cycles.” This, again, is part of the “maturity era” thesis rather than a repudiation of Bitcoin’s core investment case.
Policy timing features as a missing catalyst rather than a negative shock. The note observes that “Despite positive rhetoric, no government bitcoin purchases have been announced. In general, the US government has been very quiet on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).” Galaxy does not ascribe immediate downside to the absence, but it removes a bullish tail event that some investors had hoped would materialize this year.
Corporate treasuries and listed “Bitcoin-as-reserve” plays also receive a recalibration. Galaxy argues that the next iteration will demand business fundamentals rather than balance-sheet optics alone: “BTCTC Phase 2: The next wave of bitcoin treasury companies will mostly need revenue generation and operating businesses beyond reserve accumulation to differentiate themselves and thrive.” The firm also points to “poor performance of BTC treasury companies” as part of the year’s defining headwinds.
Taken together, the factors map to a post-$100k market defined less by reflexive retail surges and more by methodical institutional accumulation. Galaxy calls it the “Post-$100k Regime,” in which “Bitcoin’s ascendance above six figures earlier this year marked the transition from early-era speculation to mature, institutionalized markets.”
The conclusion threads the needle between structural conviction and cyclical prudence: “As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.”
At press time, BTC traded at $103,093.
With the Bitcoin dominance reaching a crucial level, market veteran Michaël van de Poppe believes a breakdown soon could lead to the altcoin season. The much-anticipated altcoin season has yet to unfold despite months of speculation.
Last updated on November 03, 2025
This Article Was First Published on The Bit Journal.
The Bitcoin price has gone up this weekend and surpassed $111,000, which has led to the whole crypto market getting excited about it. The data from the blockchain revealed that several large wallets were transferring thousands of BTC to exchanges and this made traders and analysts from all over the world pay attention to the matter.
These kinds of moves usually mean that the big holders, or whales, might get ready to cash out their investments, or profits. The price rise, combined with whale transaction activity, informed the experts, who subsequently voiced caution and said that market strength could dip soon if whales keep on selling.
Early Monday morning the Bitcoin price is around $110,678.55. This is the rate published by live market data. The rate has become the area where buyers and sellers are locked in a battle for control. The trading volume during the weekend was below the weekly average which usually leads to the magnification of price swings and the fueling of rapid corrections.
On-chain analyzers have also indicated that there is a significant increase in BTC being sent to major exchanges that could be interpreted as large investors moving coins for the purpose of selling. Historically, when whales send large amounts of Bitcoin to trading platforms, it often precedes short-term volatility.
Market watchers say that if these inflows persist into the week, the recent rally could lose momentum. However, if the selling pressure eases and liquidity returns, Bitcoin could hold its gains above key support levels.
Technical analysts consider the $110,000 mark as a decisive level and are watching it very closely, which they say will determine the short-term trend of Bitcoin.
Above the line, the Bitcoin price will be the main reason why analysts predict it will be the time when the gradual rise to $120,000 to $130,000 will be possible in the next few weeks. In case the price drops below $110,000, it might lead to the range of the correction being moved to $90,000-$100,000.
| Outlook | Expected Range | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | $120,000–$130,000 | Increased institutional buying, low sell volume |
| Neutral | $105,000–$110,000 | Range-bound consolidation, steady liquidity |
| Bearish | $90,000–$100,000 | Persistent exchange inflows, broken technical support |
In every case, liquidity, mood in the market, and the presence of institutions were the main factors influencing Bitcoin’s future. The traders are looking very closely at the exchange-traded fund (ETF) activities, the money going in and out of exchanges, and the overall economic situation to find out where the major change will be next.
The Bitcoin price is at a crucial point where it can go either way, to the side of optimism or to the side of caution. The current price of BTC is almost $110,678, which causes the traders to take a close look at the giant investors whether they would still sell or would come back to the process of accumulating.
Should the support prevail, then the Bitcoin price could take the next leap towards $120,000 and possibly even higher. If it fails, a correction toward $90,000 to $100,000 becomes more likely. For now, discipline, patience, and awareness of market signals remain essential as Bitcoin enters another pivotal week.
It acts as both psychological and technical support, shaping near-term momentum.
Lower whale activity, stronger ETF inflows, and increased institutional participation.
High selling pressure, weaker liquidity, and negative macroeconomic factors.
Analysts remain divided, though many expect moderate gains if support stays intact.
Read More: Bitcoin Tumbles from $111K to $107K: What Happened?">Bitcoin Tumbles from $111K to $107K: What Happened?
Login