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If you saw my column last week, you now know how to build a college football power rating.
This week, I'll show you how to use those power ratings and attack the 2026 college football win totals.
Keep reading to see why I like the Georgia Bulldogs to produce another solid season.
Brad Powers' college football win total betting system
Many novice bettors simply look at a schedule and start counting, "win, win, loss, win, toss-up, loss, etc." While that method can lead to a very basic win total projections, it can sometimes be inaccurate, especially for teams that have a bunch of games with single-digit projected point spreads.
I use a little more complicated method where I get a projected point spread for each game, and then assign a win percentage chance for each game coinciding with how small or large the point spread is. I then add up those 12 win percentages (decimals) and get a projected win total.
To get a projected point spread, simply subtract the two power ratings for a neutral field point spread, or subtract the two numbers while adding homefield advantage (generally around three points) for a normal game.
For example, my final power ratings for last year had Indiana No. 1 at 96.40 and Ohio State No. 2 at 92.65. Using these numbers, Indiana would be around a 3.5 to 4-point favorite vs. Ohio State on a neutral field (96.4 - 92.65 = 3.75).
Factoring in home field, you would be looking at Indiana being around at 6.5 to 7-point favorite at home vs. Ohio State, and around a 0.5-point to 1-point favorites at Ohio State. This would yield very different win percentages.
Projected point spreads near “pick-em” obviously would equate to a 50% (or 0.5 in decimal format) chance of winning. Therefore, you would give that team credit for a 0.5-win.
A 12-game schedule with every game projected at “pick-em” would yield of projected win total of 6. (0.5 times 12 = 6). In the above example, Indiana playing Ohio State or a team similar on the road all 12 games (Hoosiers again projected to be very slight 0.5 to 1-point favorites) would yield a win total projection of 6.24.
How did I get that number? Typically, 1-point favorites win about 52% of the time, so 0.52 multiplied by 12 equals 6.24.
However, if you use the example of Indiana being a 6.5 to 7-point favorite at home vs. Ohio State, you’d get a much higher projected win total.
Typically, 6.5 to 7-point favorites win about 67% of the time. Therefore, a 12-game schedule with those win percentages in each game would yield a win total projection of 8.04 (0.67 times 12 = 8.04).
Obviously, schedules aren’t that simple and will feature a wide variety of point spreads. The best way to show you how this works further would be to give you an example schedule with all different point spreads and win percentages.
Game | Projected Spread | Win % |
Game 1 | -21 | 0.93 |
Game 2 | -3 | 0.59 |
Game 3 | -7 | 0.68 |
Game 4 | 3 | 0.41 |
Game 5 | -10 | 0.74 |
Game 6 | -14 | 0.83 |
Game 7 | 7 | 0.32 |
Game 8 | -17 | 0.9 |
Game 9 | 7 | 0.32 |
Game 10 | -3 | 0.59 |
Game 11 | 10 | 0.26 |
Game 12 | -10 | 0.74 |
Projected Win Total | -- | 7.31 |
A 21-point favorite typically wins 93% of the time in college football, so instead of using a full-win, I use 0.93. However, 3-point underdogs only win about 41% of the time. Instead of giving that team a loss, I award them 0.41 of a win.
Someone using the simple “win, win, loss, etc.” method would likely come up with an 8-4 projected record (team wins all eight games they are favored in, loses all four games as an underdog). However, assigning a specific win percentage to each point spread and adding all 12 decimals up would equate to a win total of 7.31. Big difference.
I hope that helps, and by using that method, these are my three favorite win total bets for the upcoming season as of right now.
2026 college football win total picks
Georgia Over 9.5 wins (-160 at BetMGM)
My power ratings are currently projecting 10.0 wins for the Georgia Bulldogs.
I project Georgia to be favored in all 12 games by at least a field goal, and nine of those games by double-digits. Unlike the past couple of seasons, Georgia does not play likely preseason No. 1 Texas, and I expect both Alabama and Mississippi to take a step back this season.
When tying up bankroll for several months, you often want a trusted commodity with low variance. Georgia has not lost three games in a regular season since 2016, which was Kirby Smart’s first season. Speaking of Smart, he returns for his 11th season in Athens along with both of his coordinators, who have been there several seasons.
Georgia ranks No. 8 in Bill Connelly's returning production, which is the best mark in the Smart era. The Bulldogs return starting QB Gunner Stockton and 16 of their 21 defenders who logged at least 150 snaps last year.
Even in back-to-back “down seasons” compared to recent Georgia teams, the Bulldogs have managed to win the SEC Championship each year. I think this year’s team is better and has an easier slate.
Ohio State Over 9.5 wins (-160 at FanDuel)
My power ratings are currently projecting 10.1 wins. and I see the Ohio State Buckeyes favored in all 12 games.
The Buckeyes do play five teams ranked in my Top 15 (at Texas, at Indiana, at USC, Oregon, and Michigan) and it is arguably the toughest regular season schedule in Ohio State's history. However, the Buckeyes welcome back eight starters on offense, led by the best player in the country in WR Jeremiah Smith.
They also return starting QB Julian Sayin and welcome in four transfers who were starters at other FBS programs last year.
I think it’s safe to assume the Buckeyes will easily have one of the best offenses in the country. They also have eight players on defense who were full-time starters at the FBS level last year.
Similar to Georgia, Ohio State is a remarkably consistent program. With the exception of 2011 (then head coach Jim Tressel was fired in May, and their Top 5 players were suspended), Ohio State has not lost three games in a regular season since 2004. That's 20 straight seasons of cashing this total.
Yes, you’re paying some heavy juice with this bet, but remember a 0.5-win is worth around 70 cents in college football (50 cents in NFL). I would argue at the top (win totals of 9.5 or more) or at the bottom (win totals of 3.5 or less), each 0.5-win is worth even more than 70 cents as there are not as many games in question.
More college football resources from Covers
Michigan Under 8.5 wins (-130 at BetMGM)
The Michigan Wolverines managed a 9-3 regular season last year with a disgraced Sherrone Moore as head coach. Now they welcome in the much more respected and experienced Kyle Whittingham from Utah, who managed a 10-2 regular season record last year.
Right now, I have Michigan projected as a Top 15 team in our power ratings, yet I still like the Under here.
First, those same power ratings that have them as a Top 15 team are also currently projecting only 7.7 wins. The Wolverines play one of the most difficult schedules in the country, including six games against teams in my Top 25 (Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, at Oregon, and at Ohio State).
I project Michigan to be close to a TD underdog at home vs, Indiana, and a double-digit underdog on the road at Oregon and at Ohio State. I don’t expect wins in any of those three games. Therefore, in order to lose this bet, Michigan would have to run the table as a single-digit favorite vs. Oklahoma, Iowa, at Minnesota, and Penn State, while also taking care of business in the other five games.
I think that is too tall an order for a Michigan team in transition. The Wolverines are also inexperienced on defense, losing 13 of their 18 players who logged at least 300 snaps last season.
I will have more season win total best bets as the season approaches, and the Group of 6 numbers start to get posted.
More about Brad Powers
For those that don’t know me, I wanted to be involved in sports journalism nearly my entire life — even going so far as to get a broadcast journalism degree from Bowling Green.
The problem was, at the time (20 years ago), the newspaper industry was shrinking, and there wasn’t much opportunity in doing entry-level sports radio... so I got a job at Phil Steele Publications, which is best known for its college football preview magazine.
While in-depth college football coverage was my true passion, I soon found out what really pays the bills: And that's when sports betting entered my life. During my six years there, I received crash courses on how to handicap, building power ratings, how to market, and more.
What I didn’t learn was how to bet — which requires a different skill set — so I moved to Las Vegas, which at the time, was the only place in the country where you could legally wager on sports.
For the next decade, I was heavily involved in day-to-day betting, with an emphasis on college football and the NFL, and was involved with several sports betting shows and podcasts on networks such as Fox Sports Radio, ESPN Radio, and VSiN.
Now... here I am, still doing all of the above — but from my beloved farm in Ohio.
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