Image: John Brannigan/Sherdog.com illustration


At first glance, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s latest trip to Mexico is a middling offering at best, but for those willing to take a deeper look, there might be some gold in those hills.

UFC Fight Night 268, which takes place Saturday at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, is the least of the UFC’s offerings in that country in recent years. The six-fight main draw is built to please the Chilango faithful, with Mexican fighters squaring off against foreigners in every bout—and heavily favored in all of them—but there is a sneaky amount of divisional relevance in the prelims, as the winner of the women’s bantamweight clash between Macy Chiasson and Ailin Perez might actually be closer to a title shot than anyone else on the card. Outside of that contenders’ matchup, the undercard is a mixed bag, heavy on the Dana White's Contender Series alumni (10 out of 14 fighters on the prelims came to the UFC through the show) and featuring multiple fighters returning from long layoffs due to injury or suspension. Here is the preview for the seven-fight preliminary card of UFC Fight Night 268, also known as UFC Mexico:

Middleweights

Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Medina

BETTING ODDS: Gandra (-550); Medina (+450)

Gandra (8-1; 0-0 UFC) and Medina (11-6; 0-3 UFC) are both looking for their first UFC win in the top prelim; the difference is that this is Gandra’s first chance and probably Medina’s last. Gandra’s game is about as subtle as a sledgehammer and, at least thus far, about as effective. His performance on the Contender Series last season, in which the 30-year-old Brazilian buried Trent Miller in under three minutes, is a representative example. “Problema” marched forward with purpose, swinging heavy shots with both hands, and put Miller on his heels almost immediately. Once he had his man stung and reeling, he poured it on, adding some hard kicks, keeping up the pressure and closing out the fight before it ever really got started. A look at his regional tape reveals the consistency of that approach: Gandra has thrived thus far on being the more active, more aggressive, harder-hitting fighter, preferring to keep things standing until or unless his opponent forces the issue. Aside from a misstep in his second professional fight, the approach has served him well and should continue to do so until he runs into a fighter with much better footwork than himself and/or one with the requisite wrestling chops to put him on his back without eating haymakers first.

That leads us to Medina. It feels unkind to say, but “Chicho” might be the worst fighter in the UFC relative to the division in which he competes, and I say that in the midst of previewing a card that also includes Kris Moutinho. Taking into account his loss on the Contender Series, after which he was signed anyway, the 34-year-old Bolivian by way of Mexico is 0-4 in Octagon-shaped fight enclosures. Beyond the raw numbers, Medina is regressing even by the eyeball test; on DWCS and in his first couple of UFC assignments, he presented as a tough, high-volume brawler who might never be a contender, but could eke out wins against a UFC middleweight or two. In his last two fights, however, Medina’s volume has dried up, leaving a lumbering, slow-footed puncher with decent but not great power and serious defensive flaws. It is difficult to picture a plausible route to victory for him against any UFC 185-pounder that doesn’t involve his opponent making a major mistake.

That spells bad news in this matchup, as even the best version of Medina was more or less tailor-made for a fighter like Gandra, who favors the same kind of offense-first brawl but is quicker and harder-hitting. Medina remains fairly durable—though that has waned in the last year as well—and is likely to hang in there for a while, but expect Gandra to win almost every exchange and the damage to pile up quickly. Gandra by Round 2 TKO.



Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz

Women’s Bantamweights

Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez

BETTING ODDS: Perez (-180); Chiasson (+150)

Chiasson (10-5; 8-5 UFC) will look once again to establish herself as a title contender at 135 pounds, the latest chapter in an often frustrating UFC run that has been plagued by losses and weight issues at the worst possible moments. Chiasson’s 8-5 UFC mark looks unremarkable at first glance, but it’s worth noting that the “TUF 28” featherweight winner is 6-1 at bantamweight, with the sole loss coming in her most recent outing against Yana Santos. At her best, the lanky Louisianan makes excellent use of her physical tools, forcing her opponents to engage her either at ultra-long range or up close and personal in the clinch, a bit like a female version of Tim Means. In the clinch, her height and strength make her a serious problem for opponents, and he uses elbows and knees well against the cage. While Chiasson does not initiate the ground game very often, she is very dangerous there, using her long limbs to secure back control, threaten with chokes and land peppering, damaging strikes from a variety of positions. Her difficulties have been largely self-inflicted: Chiasson has had numerous weight issues at 145 as well as 135 pounds, and she has been oddly flat and complacent in some fights—potentially another sign of hard weight cuts in those fights. The loss to Santos last October was the first time Chiasson had really been beaten at her own game at bantamweight, as Santos, a famously powerful clinch fighter, nullified and frankly pushed the bigger woman around for long stretches.

Perez (12-2; 5-1 UFC) is a fighter I underestimated severely upon her arrival in the UFC three years ago. Joining the promotion out of some very low-level South American shows, “Fiona” looked like a prospect with some good physical tools but no particular standout skills, who was not even close to ready for the UFC. Her debut loss to Stephanie Egger seemed to bear that out, but she has won five straight fights since then and has looked sharper and more confident along the way. Much like her bigger countrywoman Norma Dumont, Perez presents as a striker but has quickly realized that her build and athleticism allow her to take down just about anyone she wants to. Perez favors kicks and punches at long range, either waiting for her opponent to close the distance or, if the opponent happens to land a few good shots, closing the distance herself. Once there, she can shoot a rudimentary double-leg that she finishes with strength rather than technique, or she is adept at body lock takedowns as well. Perez has a heavy top game, smothering opponents, pelting them with short punches and looking for a chance either to take their back, or finish with a topside choke like the one she used against Daya Zheleznyakova last September. Perez’s loss to Egger saw her outgrappled quickly by a veteran judoka, but her difficulties since then have mostly come against fighters with better, quicker feet, who have exposed her own footwork and left her chasing them.

Perez is the moderate favorite here, likely due to her positive momentum and Chiasson’s continued inconsistency. However, I’m leaning towards the upset here. Chiasson’s recent relocation to a new camp, where she works alongside the likes of Kyle Crutchmer and Jacobe Smith, is the wild card. Chiasson must understand on some level that her window to become a serious title contender in the UFC is narrowing; assuming the new team is a good fit and her weight is on point, she has the physical tools and necessary skills to punish Perez’s tendency to crash the pocket, punish her in close quarters and either stay upright or only go to the ground when it is to her advantage. The pick is Chiasson by decision.

Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz

Men’s Bantamweights

Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho

BETTING ODDS: Quinonez (-650); Moutinho (+475)

Quinonez (18-5; 1-2 UFC) returns from a two-year layoff to the honor—and the pressure—of being the first native Mexican to make the walk at UFC Fight Night 268. The 29-year-old Entram Gym product has been on the shelf ever since his February 2024 loss to Raoni Barcelos, first with injuries and then with visa issues that caused the last-minute cancellation of a scheduled bout with Adrian Yanez last November in Las Vegas. Quinonez is a rangy bantamweight who does his best work as a boxer at distance, taking advantage of his reach and hand speed to pepper foes with jabs and crosses. His difficulties have tended to come when he lets himself be drawn into close-range brawls with stockier, harder hitting foes, and when the fight hits the floor. Quinonez is actually a skilled grappler, but his consecutive losses by rear-naked choke show that he is not good enough to stave off better ground fighters, especially when the sequence starts with his opponent taking him down.

Lost in the narrative of Moutinho’s record (14-7; 0-3 UFC) is that he is actually a skilled fighter, and an improving one. Originally signed in 2021 as a short-notice fall guy for Sean O'Malley—Moutinho was not even the best bantamweight in CES at the time—he washed out of the UFC after two losses, went back to New England and finished five straight foes to earn another shot in the Octagon. His reward? A matchup with then-undefeated phenom Malcolm Wellmaker, who looked at the time like he might be the next O’Malley. O’Malley and Wellmaker are nightmare asks for a fighter like Moutinho, however, and depending on matchups, there are some UFC bantamweights he could probably beat. Moutinho is a technically sound boxer who throws in combination, usually has ample volume, and is very dogged in the pocket, sometimes to his own detriment. Unfortunately, Moutinho just doesn’t have the physical tools to hang with UFC-level bantamweight strikers. He is fairly small, does not have particularly fast hands or feet, and his power is poor. Combined with his need to box at close range, those limitations mean that he must weather a ton of punishment just to make rounds competitive.

Quinonez is a whopping favorite here, and that is justified—if he is in good competitive shape. If this were his first fight booked after his medical layoff, it might be worth a flier on Moutinho, but Quinonez had been all ready to go three months ago when his visa issues kept him out of the country. This is likely to be a very lopsided fight, with Moutinho plodding gamely forward, eating a million punches from the longer, quicker boxer. Quinonez doesn’t have off-the-charts power himself, and Moutinho remains fairly durable, so the pick is Quinonez by dominant decision.

Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz

Featherweights

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes

BETTING ODDS: Reyes (-240); Silva de Andrade (+190)

Silva de Andrade (29-6, 1 NC; 7-6 UFC) abandons his bantamweight aspirations, returning to 145 pounds and welcoming Reyes to the promotion. “D’Silva” is now 40 years old, nearly two years from his last fight, and in the final act of a UFC run that never truly got out of second gear. While he has been a notoriously tough out and has lost only to very good fighters since joining the UFC 12 years ago, he has only fought 13 times in that span and never won more than two in a row. It’s simply impossible to make any headway in a division as deep and competitive as featherweight fighting once a year. Silva de Andrade is a good wrestler and skilled top-position grappler, and in another universe, he might have become something like a featherweight Rafael dos Anjos, bullying bigger fighters like it was nothing. However, in this universe he comes across more like a featherweight Joaquim Silva, a stocky, powerful athlete who never met a brawl he didn’t like and tends to forget his ground game. Silva de Andrade throws some exotic techniques, including some spinning kicks and flying attacks, but for the most part he likes to wade into the pocket and unload hooks with both hands, trusting his power and chin to carry the day. His left hook is particularly accurate and damaging, and at least as recently as summer of 2024, he had enough cardio to go three hard rounds.

Reyes (22-5; 0-0 UFC) is hard to label. “Journeyman” sounds dismissive, but “prospect” sounds wishful, when talking about a 32-year-old featherweight with nearly 30 career fights. “Blair” has some good wins on his slate, including Chase Gibson, whom he defeated in Legacy Fighting Alliance, and Justice Torres, whom he knocked out in short order on the Contender Series last fall. Reyes is a good-sized featherweight who works at a steady pace and tends to build as the fight goes along. His leg kicks and diligent body work reinforce the idea that he wants to wear his opponent out and drag them into deeper waters, and both of those techniques line up well with Silva de Andrade’s vulnerabilities. While he is not a particularly adept wrestler offensively or defensively, Reyes is a good submission grappler who can sometimes spend too much time attacking from his back when he might be better off trying to get back up.

Reyes is a comfortable favorite here, but maybe he shouldn’t be. Silva de Andrade is a harder hitter and far more experienced against top-level competition; he is easily the best fighter Reyes has faced, while Reyes might not even crack the top 10 fighters the Brazilian has fought. If Silva de Andrade were not 40, and coming back from a 20-month layoff, I would be all over the upset here, and in fact my podcast co-host Keith picked “D’Silva.” However, given Reyes’ relative youth, his builder tendencies and the question marks hovering over Silva de Andrade, the call here is Reyes by decision.

Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz

Catchweight (130 pounds)

Regina Tarin vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

BETTING ODDS: n/a

Tarin (7-0; 0-0 UFC) steps in on just four days’ notice in place of Sofia Montenegro in a bout moved from 125 to 130 pounds. The undefeated 21-year-old, who has been fighting in second-and third-tier promotions since turning pro a little over two years ago, is a promising prospect. “Kill Bill” looks a little like Irene Aldana and, on the feet at least, fights a bit like her as well. Tarin is a long-framed flyweight with good reach who uses her natural tools well, keeping her opponents at middle to long range and piecing them up with punches and kicks. Tarin is also a willing and capable grappler if pressed by her opponent, but thus far her sojourns on the ground have mostly come when her foe was already hurry and/or desperate. The component skills of a future standout are there, and Tarin looks like an excellent prospect by the eyeball test, but this will be an enormous step up in competition for her, and it remains to be seen whether her kickboxing will be as dominant against UFC flyweights.

Kareckaite (6-1-1; 1-1 UFC) is only 27 years old herself and has only one more professional fight than Tarin, but she has already proven she belongs in the Octagon. Since her Contender Series win over Carly Judice—which continues to age well for her—the rangy Lithuanian has split her two UFC bouts. While she certainly presents as a striker, that description oversimplifies things: Kareckaite acquitted herself very well on the ground in a decision loss to Dione Barbosa, a decorated grappler. She has very long reach and sets out to use it, jabbing and low-kicking her foe, but she too often allows shorter foes to dictate the range of engagement. She throws good volume and is accurate on the feet, but despite her “Heavy Handed” nickname, she lacks one-shot power. Combined with her hittability and her tendency to let shorter fighters put her on the back foot, Kareckaite struggles to put her stamp on close rounds even when she is the superior technician. That, in turn, has led to four split decision wins in her last five fights. These are habits that can be addressed with experience, and many fighters have done so, but for the time being, she will always be one iffy scorecard away from a split-decision loss.

That leads directly into my prediction for this fight. While odds have not yet been released (the fight was announced two hours ago) Kareckaite was a -300 favorite over Montenegro, who is not a bad prospect herself, and it’s hard to imagine she will not be similarly favored over the newcomer. However, Tarin has a few things going for her. One, she is an aggressive, come-forward striker, and likely to be even more aggressive in a win-win scenario like the one she finds herself in this weekend. That might come into play heavily in a competitive striking battle. Two, Tarin lives and trains in Mexico City, at altitude, which eliminates many of the concerns about a short-notice debut at 7000-plus feet. It’s entirely possible that despite no training camp for this fight, Tarin ends up being the fresher fighter in Round 3. With both of those things being true, I’m leaning towards a Tarin win by decision in her debut.

Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz

Featherweights

Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall

BETTING ODDS: Marshall (-700); Silva (+500)

“The King” Silva (9-3; 0-2 UFC) returns from a two-year injury layoff, just weeks shy of his 39th birthday, looking to make a little hay while the sun still shines on his oddball career. The Venezuelan by way of Costa Rica grew up in his father’s martial arts academy and has well-rounded skills, along with far more veteran poise than one might expect of a man with only 12 professional fights. On the feet, he is an upright kickboxer with long reach and underrated power, but he is extremely hittable, with poor footwork and next to no head movement. He is an excellent grappler, with strong positional awareness, quick back takes and a venomous rear-naked choke, but his wrestling is decent at best, meaning that at the UFC level, it has usually been up to his opponent to dictate where the fight takes place. On top of his advancing age, Silva fell victim to a serious knee injury the last time we saw him in action, and it is difficult to imagine his footwork or cardio being better at age 38 after rehabilitation from such an injury.

Marshall (8-3; 2-3 UFC) is almost exactly 12 years younger than Silva and still appears to be a fighter on the rise. He is better than his 2-3 UFC mark suggests; two of his three losses have been split decisions and most recent outing, a split-decision loss to Mairon Santos, was an absolute robbery, as even Santos freely admitted. Marshall is a classic wrestle-boxer with good jiu-jitsu who tends to get into brawls on the feet, or scramble-fests on the ground, that play into his opponents’ strengths as much as his own, which often leaves bouts closer than they need to be. While the Santos fight was a strong performance against another good prospect, marred by the judges’ failure, his split-decision win over Dennis Buzukja was closer and more entertaining than it needed to be against a fighter who frankly was not UFC-level.

Marshall is the biggest favorite on the entire card, and in many ways he rightfully should be. He is far younger than Silva, far more active, is more skilled almost everywhere and appears to be improving from fight to fight. However, Marshall’s tendency to let his opponents dictate the terms of engagement makes it difficult to feel comfortable relying on him to win fights that he should win easily. The pick here is Marshall by early submission, and I do favor him even if the fight goes the distance, but if I were looking for betting value on this card, I’d give this fight a hard pass.

Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz

Middleweights

Damian Pinas vs. Wesley Schultz

BETTING ODDS: Pinas (-270); Schultz (+220)

It’s Dana White’s Saturday Night Contender Series in the opening fight, as DWCS Season 9 alums Pinas (8-1; 0-1 UFC) and Schultz (8-2; 0-0 UFC) make their promotional debuts opposite one another. Pinas is a 23-year-old from Surinam who, at this point in his development at least, presents as a prototypical Dutch-Surinamese style kickboxer. He is tall, with long reach and long legs, and throws a variety of hard, accurate kicks and punches from both sides of his upright stance. Pinas definitely has plus power, but with a few exceptions, his knockouts have come from piling up damage with combinations rather than a single Melvin Manhoef-esque killshot. Pinas’ takedown defense is suspect, as even some of his badly overmatched regional foes have managed to get him to the canvas, but he gets back up quickly rather than play jiu-jitsu from his back, and thus far none of his opponents have had him in serious danger. When he ends up in top position on the ground, he throws jackhammer punches and is not averse to grabbing his opponent’s neck in transition.

Schultz is nearly Pinas’ opposite in terms of skills and approach. While he has experience as a kickboxer, his striking in MMA has been nothing to write home about, while his ground game is creative and dangerous. Schultz works quickly to get the fight to the ground, but rather than shooting conventional takedowns, he thrives on creating collisions that lead to scrambles, trusting his grappling acumen and instincts to bring him out on top. It has served him well for the most part, but his first Contender Series appearance two years ago showed the limitations of his approach, as he ended up underneath a mauling wrestler in Mansur Abdul-Malik one too many times and got his head pounded in.

This is an intriguing style matchup between two middleweights who are far from polished products but have enough upside that both could stick around the UFC for a while. There is certainly upset potential here; Schultz is going to do his level best to drag Pinas onto the ground, and if he manages to be the first to truly test Pinas’ submission defense, we might find out that he doesn’t have any. However, Pinas’ far superior power and accuracy on the feet, combined with his tendency to try and get back up quickly if he’s on the bottom on the ground or punch hard if he’s on top, mean that all of Schultz’s best routes to victory are perilous. The pick is Pinas by Round 1 KO.

Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz