According to NYDIG research, Bitcoin’s price moves are driven more by the strength of the US dollar and broad liquidity conditions than by direct ties to inflation.
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, said the data show weak and inconsistent links between inflation measures and Bitcoin. That view shifts attention away from the old narrative that Bitcoin is mainly an inflation hedge.
Inflation Link Weak
Cipolaro argued that expectations for inflation are a slightly better signal than headline inflation readings, but still not a tight predictor of Bitcoin’s price.
Instead, Bitcoin and gold both tend to gain when the US dollar weakens. While gold’s inverse relation with the dollar is long established, Bitcoin’s opposite movement to the dollar is newer but visible.
Gold And Bitcoin React To Dollar Moves
Based on reports, gold has historically climbed as the dollar falls. Bitcoin is following that pattern, though its correlation is less steady than gold’s.
As Bitcoin becomes more connected with mainstream finance, NYDIG expects that its inverse relationship with the dollar will likely strengthen.
This makes sense to traders who price everything in dollars and seek alternatives when the greenback loses purchasing power.
Interest Rates And Money Supply
Cipolaro highlighted interest rates and money supply as the two major macro levers that move both gold and Bitcoin.
Lower interest rates and looser monetary policy have tended to support higher prices for these assets.
In simple terms: when borrowing costs drop and liquidity rises, Bitcoin often benefits. The note framed gold as more of a real-rate hedge, while Bitcoin is described as acting like a gauge of market liquidity — a subtle but important distinction for investors.
Illiquid Supply Drops, Selling Pressure Returns
On-chain data show signs of renewed selling. Reports say illiquid Bitcoin — coins held in long-dormant wallets — fell from 14.38 million earlier in October to 14.300 million on the 23rd of October.
That change means roughly 62,000 BTC, worth about $6.8 billion at recent prices, moved back into circulation. In the past, large inflows did exert price pressure. In January 2024, a substantial sum of coins came available that caused the price momentum to soften.
According to Glassnode data, there has been a consistent selloff from wallets holding from 0.1 to 100 BTC, and first-time buyer supply has contracted down to ~213,000 BTC.
The overall assessment from a macro perspective and on-chain metrics is not favorable. Demand from new buyers appears to be lighter, momentum traders appear to have stepped aside, and more coins are now available to trade. This combination can blunt rallies or deepen pullbacks until liquidity conditions improve or the dollar weakens.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Tether plans to launch its U.S.-compliant stablecoin USAT in December, aiming for mass reach in the creator economy, CEO Paolo Ardoino said in a CoinDesk interview.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Peter Schiff are supposedly taking their long-running argument to the stage.
The Binance founder has agreed to debate the outspoken economist and gold advocate after Schiff publicly challenged him to a “Bitcoin versus tokenized gold” discussion.
The exchange follows Schiff’s announcement that he’s launching his own blockchain-based gold product — and CZ’s sharp critique that such tokens are “not truly on-chain.”
“As much as you voice against Bitcoin, you are always professional and nonpersonal,” CZ told Schiff on X today. “I appreciate that. Can have a debate about it.”
Schiff replied later: “Absolutely. Several people have already reached out to me offering to moderate. Do you have a preference?”
All this debate talk arrives hours after President Donald Trump granted a full pardon to Changpeng Zhao. President Trump said CZ “wasn’t guilty” and was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”
JUST IN: Binance Founder CZ agrees to Bitcoin vs Gold debate with Peter Schiff. pic.twitter.com/oKtxii6YqH
Schiff recently said that he’s building a tokenized gold platform and neobank, with a blockchain token called Tgold at its core.
The product will reportedly allow users to purchase physical gold through a mobile app, store it in secure vaults, and transfer or redeem it digitally.
Schiff describes it as “real money for the digital age” — physical gold represented on-chain.
All this comes amid a multiyear gold rally, with prices hitting a record $4,380 per ounce earlier this month before settling near $4,128, at time of writing.
Schiff argues that tokenized gold could provide a stable, asset-backed alternative to Bitcoin’s volatility, serving as both a medium of exchange and store of value.
CZ pushes back: “It’s a ‘Trust Me Bro’ Token”
CZ wasted no time in firing back.
On X, he called tokenized gold “a ‘trust-me-bro’ token,” arguing that such assets rely on third-party custodians — precisely the kind of centralized trust structures Bitcoin was designed to eliminate.
“Tokenizing gold is NOT ‘on-chain’ gold,” CZ wrote. “It’s tokenizing that you trust some third party will give you gold at some later date — maybe decades later, during a war, after management changes, etc.”
His comments echo a common view among crypto purists: that true digital ownership requires self-custody and verifiable scarcity — traits Bitcoin has, but gold tokens do not.
As of writing, there is not an agreed-upon or specific time for Schiff and CZ to debate.
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