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MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions, How to Watch Top Sluggers in Popular All-Star Week Event

Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber Getty
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 15:  Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals gets a hug from his father Ron Haper during the Chevrolet Home Run Derby on July 15, 2013 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 15: Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals gets a hug from his father Ron Haper during the Chevrolet Home Run Derby on July 15, 2013 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JULY 07: Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a three-run home run in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 07, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JULY 07: Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a three-run home run in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 07, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

One of the most popular, fun, and entertaining events on Major League Baseball’s calendar each season is the T-Mobile Home Run Derby, which is a fan-favorite All-Star break festivity that features eight of MLB’s top sluggers duking it out for a prize of $1 million. The All-Star game (and Home Run Derby) is being held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, in the Phillies’ home ballpark, Citizens Bank Park.

MLB.com’s Thomas Harrington provided some insight on the new Home Run Derby format, which is powered by T-Mobile:

“Eight players will still make up the field, same as in years past. But instead of trying to hit as many homers as they can during timed rounds, participants will start each round with a finite number of swings: 20 in Round 1, 15 in Round 2 and 15 again in the final round.”

“All swings will count against a player’s swing allotment, whether it results in a homer or not. However, a player who homers on his final swing of a round can keep swinging until he doesn’t hit one out.”

The eight sluggers participating in the 2026 Home Run Derby include: Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies), Bryce Harper (Phillies), Munetaka Murakami (Chicago White Sox), Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays, 2025 runner-up), Jac Caglianone (Kansas City Royals), Willson Contreras (Boston Red Sox), Jordan Walker (St. Louis Cardinals), and Ben Rice (New York Yankees).

It’s a pretty stacked field, and honestly, one of the more anticipated Home Run Derbies in recent memory, it feels like. Two participants from the host city (Schwarber, Harper), last year’s runner-up in Caminero, and a guaranteed new winner. Add in the likes of rookie slugger Munetaka Murakami, and rising stars in Ben Rice, Jordan Walker, and Jac Caglianone. Sign me up.

Let’s get into some of the very important details of the event, plus some sharp predictions/odds.

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How to Watch MLB Home Run Derby, Presented by T-Mobile.

NEW YORK, NY – JULY 15: Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals gets a hug from his father Ron Haper during the Chevrolet Home Run Derby on July 15, 2013 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

How to watch the T-Mobile Home Run Derby. Event details:

Channel: Watch the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby live on Netflix. This is the first time that Netflix is hosting the event.

Time: The 2026 Home Run Derby is set to take place at 8:00 p.m. There is pre-event coverage at 7:00 p.m. ET, and also player introductions, which will likely start at 8.

Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, @ Citizens Bank Park. 

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Home Run Derby Odds by Participant

GettyST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – JULY 07: Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a three-run home run in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 07, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

First, let’s start off with the odds for each participant to win the HRD, courtesy of FanDuel SportsBook. Odds are subject to change:

*Indicates home run total for 2026.

  • Kyle Schwarber (+290); $100 bet wins $290 ($390 total) *32
  • Junior Caminero (+400); $100 bet wins $500. *28
  • Munetaka Murakami (+550) *20
  • Jac Caglianone (+700) *15
  • Jordan Walker (+700) *22
  • Bryce Harper (+950) *20
  • Ben Rice (+1000) *29
  • Willson Contreras (+1100) *20

Disrespect on behalf of Ben Rice?? Perhaps.

Prediction Time!!

Kyler Schwarber is very obviously going to be the most popular pick to win this thing, and why wouldn’t he be? Schwarber has been the perfect HRD candidate, but he’s turned the event down in recent memory. He remains the game’s top pure slugger, and in his home ballpark, it’s possible he just flicks balls out of the yard.

However, for my prediction, I’m going to hand out two potential winners that I like to win the whole thing.

Prediction: Junior Caminero (+400); Ben Rice (+1000) 

The biggest factor I take into account when trying to bet this event is which players need the $1 million the most (right now). Of course, every player in this event is going to get paid in due time, but the players whose salaries are less than $1 million on this list are Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, Jordan Walker, and Jac Caglianone.

Murakami, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Willson Contreras are all signed MLB players.

Well, if you made it this far, thanks for reading, and enjoy the 2026 Home Run Derby, presented by T-Mobile.

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Red Sox Finally Complete Caleb Durbin Trade With Brewers: Who Won?

The Red Sox have finally completed the Caleb Durbin trade with the Brewers. Here's a look at the deal and which team came out ahead.
The Red Sox have finally completed the Caleb Durbin trade with the Brewers. Here's a look at the deal and which team came out ahead. Getty

The Boston Red Sox have officially completed the Caleb Durbin trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, bringing the deal to its final conclusion and renewing debate over which club ultimately got the better return.

With every piece of the trade now in place, it’s possible to fully evaluate the transaction, comparing what each team gave up, what they received and who appears to have gained the long-term advantage.

The final piece was put in place Saturday, when Boston used the competitive balance pick it received in the trade to select outfielder Owen Hull with the 67th pick in this year’s MLB Draft.

Owen Hull’s Path to the Boston Red Sox

Hull is a 21-year-old outfielder out of Alexandria, Virginia, listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, according to UNC Athletics. He started his college career at George Mason, then transferred to North Carolina for his junior season.

The move paid off immediately. Hull hit .393 with a .500 on-base percentage in 2026, piling up 103 hits, second in the country, and 27 doubles, third nationally, according to a report from Tar Heels Wire‘s Brooks Kirst.

He added nine home runs, drove in 87 runs and walked nearly as often as he struck out, numbers that helped land him First Team All-America and All-ACC honors. He shifted to center field for the Tar Heels and showed off the speed to stay there, stealing 18 bases.

Scouts view his bat speed as still developing, but his combination of contact skills, discipline and outfield range made him a logical target at the back of the Competitive Balance Round. Hull carried a slot value near $1.32 million and landed roughly in the 60-to-67 range on the industry’s top draft boards, according to MLB.com‘s analysis. The pick came after Boston used its first-round selection at No. 20 this year on another Tar Heel, Jake Schaffner.

Making Sense of the Full Caleb Durbin Trade

Boston acquired Durbin, infielder Andruw Monasterio, utility man Anthony Seigler and the pick that became Hull by sending left-hander Kyle Harrison, infielder David Hamilton and left-hander Shane Drohan to Milwaukee on February 9, according to MLB Trade Rumors’ breakdown.

Durbin arrived as a finalist for 2025 National League Rookie of the Year, a switch-hitting infielder who slashed .256/.334/.387 with 11 homers and 18 stolen bases in his debut season with Milwaukee. Boston wanted a solid replacement for the departed Alex Bregman at third base. The Brewers wanted rotation depth and speed on the infield.

Harrison, who was acquired by the Red Sox in the 2025 Rafael Devers trade, has been a rotation fixture, going 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 101 strikeouts across 17 starts, according to MLB.com‘s player page. But over his last four starts, the left-hander faded, allowing 10 earned runs on 16 hits in 18 innings. The Brewers placed Harrison on the 15-day injured list Saturday with “left forearm tightness,” a condition that in about one of every five cases ends with Tommy John surgery or a similar elbow repair procedure.
Hamilton has chipped in a steady glove at .238 with 18 steals, and Drohan has posted a 3.09 ERA in relief and spot starts, according to a recent NESN review of the trade.

Durbin, meanwhile, got off to a dismal start in April and May, batting just .183 with just one home run. But he turned his season around in June and July, hitting .294 in those months while blasting eight round-trippers.
Seigler was called up and inserted into the starting lineup on June 20. In his 18 games the Red Sox have a 13-5 record while the former New York Yankees first-round pick had posted a .797 OPS. Monasterio has served as a solid utility player, but has picked up his production at the plate with more regular playing time, compiling a .912 OPS over his last six starts.

That leaves Hull as Boston’s final piece in the return on the trade. He’s unsigned as of draft night, but if his junior-year production translates, the pick at the bottom of the deal could end up making the deal a clear win for the Red Sox and their chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Deadline Plans, Yankees Still Seeking Bullpen Support, Potential Bidding War Between Braves-Phillies for Joe Ryan

Boston Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow shared insight into the Trade Deadline, and how the team won't need to prove anything to add.
Boston Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow shared insight into the Trade Deadline, and how the team won't need to prove anything to add. Getty
BRONX, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 21: New York Yankee general manager Brian Cashman speaks to the media during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 21, 2022 in Bronx, New York. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
BRONX, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 21: New York Yankee general manager Brian Cashman speaks to the media during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 21, 2022 in Bronx, New York. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) Getty
Braves potential trade package for Joe Ryan revealed.
Braves potential trade package for Joe Ryan revealed. Getty

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is just over three weeks away, and with some minor trades transpiring across the league already, there’s surely a lot more to come in the following weeks. MLB trade rumors are swirling everywhere, and on Sunday, July 12, a new report emerged from USA Today’s Bob Nightenagle that suggests Tarik Skubal may want to stay in Detroit for the rest of the season. Of course, it’s partially just speculation, because what Skubal wants may be different than what the Detroit Tigers want, but that’s a huge development in recent trade rumors.

Another massive development over the past week or so has been the Boston Red Sox recent surge back into AL playoff contention. The American League isn’t putting on the best show this season, as the Red Sox (who are under .500), are just a game out of a playoff spot on the last day before the MLB All-Star break. So, after it looked like they would likely be sellers at this deadline, Boston’s trade deadline plans may be shifting by the day, and there’s almost certainly going to hold onto their key players until the very last day before a decision is made. Remember, the Red Sox also have some of the more coveted players thought to be on the market.

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Are the Red Sox Trade Deadline Plans Shifting?

It appears so. The Boston Red Sox are 45-48 after going 8-2 in their last 10 games. They’ve won eight straight games and will go for the sweep of the Mets on Sunday afternoon. Boston has a wealth of ‘tradeable assets’, which include names like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Aroldis Chapman, and Jarred Duran. All names that have steadily been linked in trade rumors, but Craig Breslow and the rest of the Red Sox front office may have a completely different trade deadline plan now, after the recent winning surge.

The Red Sox could very well go from sellers to strong buyers in the market. Perhaps their biggest need is another front-line starter with Garrett Crochet still sidelined, and a right-handed hitting infield bat.

So, the Red Sox now carry heavy speculation ahead of Aug. 3, and it will be very interesting to see the moves they make as well as the names they get connected to.

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New York Yankees Still Seeking Bullpen Help

Aaron Judge Press Conference

GettyBRONX, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 21: New York Yankee general manager Brian Cashman speaks to the media during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 21, 2022 in Bronx, New York. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

The New York Yankees, per usual, are always going to dominate headlines around this part of the season, and given their constant World Series aspirations, Brian Cashman is under a lot of pressure to get this trade deadline right.

New York’s biggest need remains bullpen help. Here are some of the ‘likely’ available trade candidates that they may target: JoJo Romero, Antonio Senzatela, Pete Fairbanks, and AJ Minter.

Sources near and around the Yankees have already indicated that their main focus will be bullpen help, especially with the recent struggles of Camilo Doval, and lacking a true southpaw leverage arm in the Pen.

Braves-Phillies Bidding War for Joe Ryan

Atlanta Braves

GettyBraves potential trade package for Joe Ryan revealed.

The last, and perhaps most important storyline to watch out for over the next three weeks is definitely going to be the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies potential bidding war for Joe Ryan. If Tarik Skubal is no longer going to be traded this season, Joe Ryan immediately surfaces as the top starter available (if the Twins trade him), and he is certainly going to come with a hefty pricetag.

The Braves’ need for a starting pitcher is growing drastically by the day, but the Phillies believe they need another back-end rotation arm, as well, and Dave Dombrowski has been a lot more willing to part with top prospects than Alex Anthopoulos has, which sets up for a bidding war between the NL East foes.

Atlanta holds just a two-game lead in the NL East. Philadelphia has been one of the hottest teams in baseball since early May. With the two duking it out for the division crown, both organizations will likely be targeting similar players, which makes this Joe Ryan- Braves/Phillies a fascinating storyline to watch out for over the next few weeks.

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