Correctly calling a market peak is a notoriously tricky endeavor.

Case in point: When tech stocks and startup funding hit their last cyclical peak four years ago, few knew it was the optimal time to cease new deals and cash in liquidatable holdings.

This time around, quite a few market watchers are wondering if the tech stock and AI boom has reached bubble territory. And, as we explored in Friday’s column, there are plenty of similarities between current conditions and the 2021 peak.

Even so, by other measures we’re also in starkly different territory. The current boom is far more concentrated in AI and a handful of hot companies. The exit environment is also much quieter. And of course, the macro conditions don’t resemble 2021, which had the combined economic effects of the COVID pandemic and historically low interest rates.

Below, we look at four of the top reasons why this time is different.

No. 1: Funding is largely going into AI, while other areas aren’t seeing a boom

Four years ago, funding to most venture-backed sectors was sharply on the rise. That’s not the case this time around. While AI megarounds accumulate, funding to startups in myriad other sectors continues to languish.

Biotech is on track to capture the smallest percentage of U.S. venture investment on record this year. Cleantech investment looks poised to hit a multiyear low. And consumer products startups also remain out of vogue, alongside quite a few other sectors that once attracted big venture checks.

The emergence of AI haves and non-AI have-nots means that if we do see a correction, it could be limited in scope. Sectors that haven’t seen a boom by definition won’t see a post-boom crash. (Though further declines are possible.)

No. 2: The IPO market is not on fire

The new offering market was on fire in 2020 and 2021, with traditional IPOs, direct listings and SPAC mergers all flooding exchanges with new ticker symbols to track.

In recent quarters, by contrast, the IPO market has been alive, but not especially lively. We’ve seen a few large offerings, with CoreWeave, Figma and Circle among the standouts.

But overall, numbers are way down.

In 2021, there were hundreds of U.S. seed or venture-backed companies that debuted on NYSE or Nasdaq, per Crunchbase data. This year, there have been less than 50.

Meanwhile, the most prominent unicorns of the AI era, like OpenAI and Anthropic, remain private companies with no buzz about an imminent IPO. As such, they don’t see the day-to-day fluctuations typical of public companies. Any drop in valuation, if it happens, could play out slowly and quietly.

No. 3: Funding is concentrated among fewer companies

That brings us to our next point: In addition to spreading their largesse across fewer sectors, startup investors are also backing fewer companies.

This year, the percentage of startup funding going to megarounds of $100 million or more reached an all-time high in the U.S. and came close to a record global level. A single deal, OpenAI’s $40 billion March financing, accounted for roughly a quarter of  U.S. megaround funding.

At the same time, fewer startup financings are getting done. This past quarter, for instance, reported deal count hit the lowest level in years, even as investment rose.

No. 4: ZIRP era is long gone

The last peak occurred amid an unusual financial backdrop, with economies beginning to emerge from the depths of the COVID pandemic and ultra-low interest rates contributing to investors shouldering more risk in pursuit of returns.

This time around, the macro environment is in a far different place, with “a “low fire, low hire” U.S. job market, AI disrupting or poised to disrupt a wide array of industries and occupations, a weaker dollar and a long list of other unusual drivers.

What both periods share in common, however, is the inexorable climb of big tech valuations, which brings us to our final thought.

Actually, maybe the similarities do exceed differences

While the argument that this time it’s different is a familiar one, the usual plot lines do tend to repeat themselves. Valuations overshoot, and they come down. And then the cycle repeats.

We may not have reached the top of the current cycle. But it’s certainly looking a lot closer to peak than trough.

Related Crunchbase query:

• Rounds Raised By Startups Using AI

Related reading:

• The Great ‘AI Bubble’ Debate
• The Last Market Boom Ended 4 Years Ago. Here’s How Current Conditions Look Similar
• Biotech Share Of US Funding Hits Lowest Point In Crunchbase History
• Cleantech On Track For Weak Funding Year
• A Record Share Of Startup Funding Is Going To $100M+ Rounds
• SoftBank And OpenAI Make History With Largest Startup Financing Ever

Illustration: Dom Guzman

Coinbase has been on a buying spree.

On Oct. 21, the publicly traded crypto exchange announced that it is acquiring early-stage investing platform Echo for $375 million in cash and equity.

Notably, the acquisition marked the eighth buy for the San Francisco-based company in 2025 so far, according to The Wall Street Journal. Of those eight deals, three involved undisclosed businesses.

Overall, since its 2012 inception, Coinbase has acquired dozens of companies, per Crunchbase data. Besides Echo, it announced purchases of the following startups in 2025:

• In January, it acquired Stryk, the Cyprus-based unit of BUX, as part of a European expansion. Stryk offers CFD trading services to European residents through an app. Financial terms were not disclosed
• Also in January, Coinbase picked up Spindl, a 3-year-old San Francisco-based startup that developed a blockchain-based attribution system to help businesses accelerate user growth.
• In May, it acquired Deribit, a 10-year-old cryptocurrency derivatives exchange offering options, futures and spot trading for digital assets based in the Netherlands.
• Then in July, Coinbase acquired Liquifi, a 4-year-old San Francisco-based startup that helps crypto companies automate their token vesting and lockups, and manage their token cap table. Liquifi was a self-described “Carta for crypto.”
• Now it has announced plans to buy Echo, an onchain digital platform that helps communities invest together and aims to give founders more options for their cap table.

Coinbase’s buying sprees seem to come in spurts, according to the data.

Crypto’s crash and recovery

For example, in 2018, it acquired eight known companies. And then in 2021, it picked up seven known companies. But most years, it acquired only one or two companies.

Interestingly, 2018 was defined by what has been described as the “Great Crypto Crash,” or a massive market sell-off after the boom that took place in 2017. Things had rebounded by 2021, which saw a bull market for crypto and the rise of NFTs and DeFi. That November, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $68,000.

After a bumpy few years, which saw the arrests of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao, Bitcoin has rebounded, surging to an all-time high in 2025. Prices reached $113,156.57 on Oct. 15.

In announcing its plan to acquire Echo, Coinbase said the two companies shared a similar mission of “democratizing early-stage investing, so that more people can support the next generation of breakthrough companies.”

The buy complemented its earlier acquisition of Liquifi, Coinbase said, noting that: “While Liquifi strengthened our ability to support builders at the start of their journey, Echo extends that support into fundraising.”

The largest of its acquisitions in 2025 so far, though, was its $2.9 billion buy of Deribit.

Meanwhile, Coinbase’s market cap as of Oct. 23 hovered just under $83 billion, while its stock is up over 25% year to date.

Related Crunchbase list:

• Coinbase Acquisitions 2012 To Date

Related Reading:

• Shares of Blockchain Lender Figure Surge 24% Higher In First Day On Nasdaq
• Circle Shares Soar 168% In First Day On NYSE, Potentially Unlocking IPO Market
• Why More Startups Are Buying Other Startups In 2025

Illustration: Dom Guzman

Nearly four years ago, the market hit a cyclical peak under conditions that in many ways look quite similar to what we’re seeing today.

Sky-high public tech valuations. Booming startup investment. Sharply rising valuations. And, a few cracks emerging on the new offering front.

Sure, there are quite a few differences in the investment environment, which we’ll explore in a follow-on piece. For this first installment, however, we are focusing on the commonalities, with an eye to the four highlighted above.

No. 1: Sky-high public tech valuations

First, both then and now, tech stocks hit unprecedented highs.

In mid-November 2021, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time peak above 16,000. Gains stemmed largely from sharply rising tech share prices.

Today, the Nasdaq is hovering not far below a new all-time high of over 23,000. The five most valuable tech companies have a collective market cap of more than $16 trillion. Other hot companies, like AMD, Palantir Technologies and Broadcom have soared to record heights this year.

While private startups don’t see day-to-day valuation gyrations like publicly traded companies, their investors do take cues from public markets. When public-market bullishness subsides, private up rounds tend to diminish as well.

No. 2: Booming startup investment

In late 2021, just like today, venture investment was going strong.

Last time, admittedly, it was much stronger. Global startup funding shattered all records in 2021, with more than $640 billion invested. That was nearly double year-earlier levels. Funding surged to a broad swathe of startup sectors, with fintech in particular leading the gains.

For the first three quarters of this year, by contrast, global investment totaled a more modest $303 billion. However, that’s still on track for the highest tally in years. The core driver is, of course, voracious investor appetite for AI leaders, evidenced by OpenAI’s record-setting $40 billion financing in March.

The pace of unicorn creation is also picking up, which brings us to our next similarity.

No. 3: Up rounds and sharply rising valuations

At the last market peak, valuations for hot startups soared, driven in large part by heated competition among startup investors to get into pre-IPO rounds.

This time around, we’re also seeing sought-after startups raising follow-on rounds in quick succession, commonly at sharply escalated valuations. Per Crunchbase data, dozens of companies have scaled from Series A to Series C within just a couple of years, including several that took less than 12 months.

We’re also seeing prominent unicorns raising follow-on rounds at a rapid pace this year. Standouts include generative AI giants as well as hot startups in vertical AI, cybersecurity and defense tech.

No. 4: A few cracks emerging

During the 2021 market peak, even when the overall investment climate was buzzier than ever, we did see some worrisome developments and areas of declining valuations.

For that period, one of the earlier indicators was share-price deterioration for many of the initial companies to go public via SPAC. By late 2021, it had become clear that there were numerous “truly terrible performers” among the cohort, including well-known names such as WeWork, Metromile and Buzzfeed.

This time around, the new offerings market hasn’t been quite so active. But among those that did go public in recent months, performance has been decidedly mixed. Shares of Figma, one of the hottest IPOs in some time, are down more than 60% from the peak.

Online banking provider Chime and stablecoin platform Circle have shown similar declines.

At this point, these are still generously valued companies by many metrics. But it’s also worth noting the share price direction in recent months has been downward, not upward.

Next: Watch for more cracks

Looking ahead, one of the more reliable techniques to determine whether we are approaching peak or already past is to look for more cracks in the investment picture. Are GenAI hotshots struggling to secure financing at desired valuations? Is the IPO pipeline still sluggish? Are public tech stocks no longer cresting ever-higher heights?

Cracks can take some time to emerge, but inevitably, they do.

Related reading:

• Global Venture Funding And Unicorn Creation In 2021 Shattered All Records 
• Q1 Global Startup Funding Posts Strongest Quarter Since Q2 2022 With A Third Going To Massive OpenAI Deal  
• Highest Count Of New Unicorns Join Crunchbase Board In Over 3 Years As Exits Also Gain Steam
• These Are The Speediest Companies To Go From Series A To Series C
• Truly Terrible Performers Multiply Among Startups Taking SPAC Route To Market

Illustration: Dom Guzman