Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Volatility Hits Record Lows

Bitcoin price is once again testing the patience of traders, moving within one of the tightest percentile price ranges in its history. For more than four months, BTC has traded between roughly $106,000 and $123,000. This period of quiet has pushed volatility to its lowest level ever recorded on six-month metrics. Each time in the past that volatility has fallen to similar depths, it has been followed by a major trending move.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Compression

The current lull stands out even compared to previous phases of consolidation in this cycle. Despite occasional liquidations and sharp wicks, the broader price structure has barely shifted since June. One of the most telling metrics is the weekly Bollinger Band Width — the indicator has now reached its lowest weekly reading ever. In every past instance that Bitcoin’s bands have squeezed to this degree, bitcoin price volatility expansion followed shortly after.

When Bitcoin Price Volatility Returns

Periods of ultra-low volatility have never lasted long. In this cycle alone, there have already been five examples where similar consolidations ended with significant moves exceeding 65% gains within 100 days. Averaging those historical fractals to today’s setup would imply a potential bitcoin price target between $170,000 and $180,000 by 2026 if the next expansion phase mirrors prior behavior.

However, bitcoin price volatility compression does not guarantee immediate upside. Previous examples have shown that these low-volatility periods can extend for several months before a breakout occurs. Bitcoin could continue to trade sideways through late Q1 2026, oscillating within the current range before direction is decided.

Macro Catalysts for Bitcoin Price Volatility

Several macro factors could serve as a catalyst for renewed bitcoin price volatility. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce another rate cut, which markets currently price at near-certainty. Gold’s recent reversal after setting new highs also hints at potential capital rotation. If even a small fraction of that capital migrates toward Bitcoin amid falling rates and renewed risk appetite, the effect could amplify any breakout once volatility expands.

Conclusion: The Next Big Bitcoin Price Move

Volatility naturally declines as Bitcoin matures from a multi-billion to a multi-trillion-dollar asset, but the cyclical nature of expansion and contraction remains. The current compression phase has lasted unusually long, and historically such conditions have preceded powerful multi-month trends.

The final months of 2025 and early 2026 may test this pattern once again. With bitcoin price volatility metrics at record lows, macro conditions turning supportive, and market sentiment subdued, Bitcoin appears poised on the edge of its next major move.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Is About To Surprise Everyone.

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Volatility Hits Record Lows first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle

Has the bitcoin price finally broken away from its four-year cycle pattern, or is this bull market already entering exhaustion? By studying historical growth rates, liquidity data, and macroeconomic correlations, we can better understand whether the current cycle has truly diverged, and what that means for investors in the months ahead.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Duration

Analyzing BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows, we can see that Bitcoin has now officially surpassed the elapsed time from cycle low to cycle high seen in previous bull markets. The 2018–2022 cycle peaked 1,059 days after its prior bear market low, and the current cycle has now moved beyond that duration. If we average the elapsed time across the last two full market cycles, Bitcoin has already exceeded the historical mean and is on the verge of surpassing even the 2017 cycle length in the coming days.

Diminishing Impact on Bitcoin Price

Historically, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle was rooted in its halving events, where the block reward, and thus the inflation rate, was cut in half. Each halving triggered a sharp supply shock, driving major bull markets. However, this cycle has behaved differently. Following the most recent halving, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways consolidation rather than the explosive post-halving rallies seen previously. While price has since made notable gains, momentum has been weaker, leading many to ask whether the halving has lost its influence.

With the current Circulating Supply already exceeding 95% of the 21 million ultimate total supply of Bitcoin, the marginal supply reduction may no longer be as significant. Today, miners distribute roughly 450 newly created BTC per day, an amount easily absorbed by a handful of institutional buyers or ETFs. That means the halving alone may no longer be the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s market cycles. 

Global Liquidity Cycles Driving the Bitcoin Price

When we view Global M2 Money Supply versus BTC on a year-on-year basis, a clear pattern emerges. Each major Bitcoin bottom has aligned almost perfectly with the trough of Global M2 liquidity growth. 

If we map the Bitcoin halvings and the M2 troughs side by side, we see that halvings typically lag the liquidity cycle, suggesting that liquidity expansion, not halving events, may be the true catalyst for Bitcoin’s rallies. This isn’t unique to Bitcoin. Gold has shown the same behavior for decades, with its price performance closely mirroring the rate of Global M2 expansion or contraction.

Inverse Correlations Shaping Bitcoin Price Trends

A key part of this liquidity story lies in the U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY). Historically, BTC versus DXY on a year-on-year basis has been almost perfectly inversely correlated. When the dollar strengthens year-on-year, Bitcoin tends to enter bear market conditions. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin begins a new bull market. This inverse relationship also holds true for Gold and equity markets, underscoring the broader debasement cycle thesis that as fiat currencies lose purchasing power, hard assets rapidly appreciate.

Currently, the DXY has been in a short-term uptrend, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recent consolidation. However, the index is now approaching a key historical resistance zone, one that has previously marked major turning points and preceded prolonged DXY declines. If this pattern holds, the next major drop in dollar strength could trigger a renewed upcycle for Bitcoin.

Quantitative Tightening and the Bitcoin Price

Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted that the era of balance sheet contraction (quantitative tightening) may be nearing an end. Looking at the Fed Balance Sheet versus BTC, the start of balance sheet expansion and renewed quantitative easing has historically coincided with major upward moves in Bitcoin and equity markets alike.

During the two years following previous Fed balance sheet expansions, the S&P 500 averaged a 47% return, more than five times the average two-year performance during neutral periods. If we are indeed entering a new easing phase, it could not only prolong Bitcoin’s current cycle but also set the stage for a liquidity-driven melt-up across risk assets.

Conclusion: The Evolving Bitcoin Price Cycle

Bitcoin has now outlasted the timeframes of its previous two cycles, leading many to question whether the four-year rhythm still applies. But when we step back, a different narrative emerges, one driven not by programmed scarcity, but by Global liquidity, fiat debasement, and macro capital flow. The “four-year cycle” may not be broken, but it may have simply evolved.

If the U.S. Dollar weakens, the Fed pauses tightening, and Global M2 growth accelerates, then Bitcoin likely still has room to run.  For now, as always, the best approach remains the same: react, don’t predict. Stay data-driven, stay patient, and keep your eyes on liquidity.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.