The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is fast approaching, and the bets are already pouring in as to what it would mean for the Bitcoin and crypto industry. The last FOMC meeting took place in September, when the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates down to 4-4.25% after months of no rate cuts. With this setting the tone, the expectations that another rate cut could be on the way are getting louder, with the FedWatch Tool showing a high percentage.

Market Expects Another Rate Cut To 3.75-4%

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, October 29, 2025, and there is already a major clamor around what the Fed is planning on doing. The current market headwinds point to a favorable outcome for risk assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with expected rate cuts.

Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing that the probability of a rate cut has risen to 98.3% as of the time of this writing. This leaves only a 1.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will actually leave rates at their current levels, and there is zero chance that there will be a rate hike.

A reduction in the rate cuts is good for businesses all around, as lower interest rates mean better loan terms and increased spending and borrowing. Thus, it will increase the participation in the markets, from consumer goods to the stock market, and then make its way into newer markets such as Bitcoin and crypto.

Expectations For Bitcoin And Crypto Are Getting Higher

A rate cut by the Federal Reserve aligns with the more pro-crypto stance that the United States has been moving in since President Donald Trump was elected. Last week, the president pardoned the Founder and former CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, after he previously pled guilty to money laundering violations back in 2024. Zhao has since served a 4-month stint before the pardon from Trump came.

With the US embracing Bitcoin and crypto again, a rate cut will only further the ascent, allowing more investors to get into the market as liquidity frees up. The initial announcement has been known to trigger a rapid increase in the market. But as the news settles, the crypto market is expected to continue to rise in response.

However, nothing is certain until the FOMC meeting is complete and the announcement is made. For the Bitcoin and crypto market to remain bullish, inflation will also have to be reduced, as an increase could trigger more conservative stances from investors.

The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000. 

Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High

Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000. 

Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000. 

The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).

Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle. 

Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength

In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle. 

The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market.

According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively.