Ethereum price started a decent increase above $4,000. ETH is consolidating gains and could aim for more gains above the $4,220 resistance.
Ethereum started a fresh upward move above $4,000 and $4,120.
The price is trading above $4,080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $4,055 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,200.
Ethereum Price Holds Gains
Ethereum price started a steady upward move above the $3,880 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price surpassed the $4,000 and $4,120 levels to enter a short-term positive zone.
The price even spiked above $4,200. A high was formed at $4,252 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $3,708 swing low to the $4,252 high.
Ethereum price is now trading above $4,080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $4,055 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.
On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,180 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,200 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,250 level. A clear move above the $4,250 resistance might send the price toward the $4,320 resistance. An upside break above the $4,320 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,480 resistance zone or even $4,500 in the near term.
Another Pullback In ETH?
If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,080 level. The first major support sits near the $4,050 zone and the trend line.
A clear move below the $4,050 support might push the price toward the $3,980 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $3,708 swing low to the $4,252 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,840 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,780.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.
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Investor sentiment, as shown by trading volume and flows on exchanges, has turned optimistic amidst the recovery. Now that Ethereum’s price action is starting to turn bullish again, a new technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Freedomby40 on the social media platform X suggests that the current rally could be far from over, projecting a possible long-term climb to $16,000.
Wave Count Structure Points To A Continuation Phase
Freedomby40’s analysis, which is based on the Elliott Wave structure, presents Ethereum as currently positioned in an extended bullish sequence that began forming in late 2022. Posting the technical analysis on X, the analyst noted that Ethereum’s price action looks great for a continuation.
His chart shows that the asset has just completed a corrective phase and is entering a renewed impulse wave, with support established between $3,225 and $3,563 at the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zones, respectively. The analyst labels this zone as the ideal accumulation area for the next leg up, consistent with previous cycle structures seen in 2017 and 2021.
The Elliott Wave projection in his analysis presents a multi-layered confluence of impulse waves extending to the third degree. It illustrates that Ethereum is currently unfolding its fifth major impulse wave in a structure that traces back to mid-2022.
The internal structure of this wave sequence also reveals a C wave in motion, which itself contains smaller sub-impulse waves. Within that C wave, Ethereum appears to be entering its own fifth sub-wave, which is known to be a decisively bullish wave.
Based on this setup, the analyst outlined two potential target zones on the chart: a green box representing the realistic price range for this wave cycle and a red box depicting the higher, more extended scenario that could push Ethereum’s market cap into the trillion-dollar level.
Fibonacci Extensions Predict Targets Of $9,000, $11,000, And $16,000
Freedomby40’s analysis identifies multiple price levels based on Fibonacci extensions from the current price action. The first price target is at $6,303, which is based on the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. This initial price target will see the Ethereum price break above its current all-time high, but this is the first of many.
The next target, the 1.236 extension, is positioned around $9,013. These two price targets ($6,303 and $9,013) were described by the analyst as very realistic. Possible extensions are at the 1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, corresponding to $11,210 and $16,077, respectively.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,160, up by 5.2% in the past 24 hours. Freedomby40’s outlook joins a growing list of ultra-bullish Ethereum price forecasts from institutional research desks and top analysts. Standard Chartered Bank recently raised its 2025 price target for Ethereum to $7,500, while projecting a potential long-term path to $25,000 by 2028.
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Ethereum enters the week with a sturdier floor. The tenor feels different, not loud, just confident. The latest on-chain reads show a market that prefers patience over drama, with long holders adding and fewer coins sitting on trading venues. That mix supports a measured push toward a decisive move above the recent pivot.
Why Ethereum staking matters now
The case starts with concrete data. Whale addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH expanded their stacks to roughly 31 million ETH, a band that grew during prior bull phases. Alongside that, total staked supply climbed to about 36.15 million ETH, while exchange reserves hovered near 15.9 million.
Together, the trio points to firmer hands and thinner near-term sell pressure, which often precedes breakouts when macro is not a headwind. These figures were highlighted in a Monday roundup that also noted ETH trading near 4,225 after a swift 7 percent rebound, published on October 27, 2025.
Ethereum staking is pulling coins out of the active float, which tightens supply during risk-on stretches and cushions drawdowns when volatility flickers. The mechanical effect is simple. Fewer liquid tokens on exchanges can amplify price sensitivity to fresh demand. The behavioral effect matters too. Participants willing to lock capital for yield tend to ignore noise and trade less often, which steadies the tape.
The Policy
Policy and positioning sit in the background like stage lighting. The fund market premium tied to ETH has held in positive territory in recent snapshots, a sign that institutional appetite remains constructive when futures trade above spot. When that premium stays above zero, subsequent weeks have often leaned higher, according to prior analyses.
Public voices are adding color. Vitalik Buterin recently defended the design choice that exiting validators face some friction, stating that
“friction in quitting is part of the deal. An army cannot hold together if any percent of it can suddenly leave at any time.”
The framing underscores why a multi-week exit path exists and why the process lowers reflexive churn during stress events.
Regulatory temperature also enters the frame. Brian Armstrong has pressed for uniform access to services, writing that “more dominoes [are] falling” and that states blocking staking harm residents by limiting participation. The comment came alongside progress on staking availability in key jurisdictions, reinforcing the view that participation can broaden as rules settle.
Ethereum staking: Source X
The whales’ role
From a trading perspective, Ethereum staking changes how pullbacks behave. When whales accumulate and a larger slice is locked, dips tend to meet bids faster, especially near well-watched supports. If buyers defend the 4,200 to 4,300 zone and the broader market avoids a macro shock, traders will likely lean into a retest of the next shelf overhead. The cleaner the order book, the faster momentum accounts re-enter.
The medium view improves if fund flows and derivatives stay balanced. A steady premium, coupled with calm liquidations, removes fuel for disorderly swings. That is the kind of backdrop where narratives breathe and relative strength rotates toward assets showing inflows. In that scenario, Ethereum staking can play the quiet role of ballast, letting incremental demand translate into a trend rather than chop.
ETH predictions
Price prediction is never a promise, but the map is readable. If ETH holds above the pivot and clears 4,500 with volume, the path opens toward a measured climb into the mid-4,000s, with an eventual attempt at the prior all-time high if macro winds cooperate.
If the pivot fails, a revisit of lower support would not break the thesis unless exchange reserves rise and long holders start distributing. The presence of large locked supply through Ethereum staking would still argue for a patient, stair-step structure rather than a slide.
Conclusion
Momentum grows when supply tightens and confidence improves. With whales adding, reserves thin, and the fund premium supportive, the setup leans constructive. A clean push through the pivot would validate the view that Ethereum staking is acting like a new version of strong hands, turning calm conviction into staying power.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Ethereum staking and how does it affect price action? Ethereum staking is the process of locking ETH to secure the network and earn yield. Reducing the liquid supply on exchanges can make prices more sensitive to fresh demand, which may support trend formation when sentiment is improving.
Why does the fund market premium matter for ETH? A positive premium indicates that futures trade above spot, a sign of constructive positioning from larger investors. Persistent positive readings have historically aligned with upward drift in the following weeks.
Do validator exit queues weaken participation? Design friction exists to protect network security. As Vitalik Buterin put it, “friction in quitting is part of the deal,” which reduces herd exits during stress.
Glossary of long key terms
Fund Market Premium A metric comparing futures pricing to spot that helps gauge institutional sentiment. Positive values often signal supportive demand from professional money.
Exchange Reserves The aggregate ETH held on trading venues. Lower reserves suggest fewer coins available for immediate sale and can point to reduced sell pressure.
Realized Price An on-chain estimate of the average cost basis for all coins. Price action above realized price indicates aggregate profit, while deep moves below have aligned with capitulation zones in past cycles.
Whale Accumulation Band A supply band tracking holdings of large addresses. Rising balances in the 10,000 to 100,000 cohort have preceded strong cycles in earlier years.
Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $4,000. ETH is moving higher but faces a couple of key hurdles near $4,220 and $4,250.
Ethereum started a fresh recovery above $4,000 and $4,120.
The price is trading above $4,120 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $4,050 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,220.
Ethereum Price Eyes Steady Gains
Ethereum price started a minor recovery wave above the $3,880 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price surpassed the $4,000 and $4,050 levels to enter a short-term positive zone.
The price even spiked above $4,220. A high was formed at $4,225 and the price is now consolidating gains. The price is stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $3,708 swing low to the $4,225 high.
Ethereum price is now trading above $4,150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $4,050 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.
On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,220 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,250 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,320 level. A clear move above the $4,320 resistance might send the price toward the $4,450 resistance. An upside break above the $4,450 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,500 resistance zone or even $4,550 in the near term.
Another Decline In ETH?
If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,220 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,150 level. The first major support sits near the $4,120 zone.
A clear move below the $4,120 support might push the price toward the $4,050 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,000 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,880.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.
Ethereum’s largest non-exchange holders are tiptoeing back into accumulation. On-chain analytics platform Santiment reported that wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 ETH, also known as whales and sharks, have begun to rebuild positions after unloading roughly 1.36 million ETH between October 5 and 16.
Notably, the Ethereum collective holdings chart shows that nearly one-sixth of those coins have already been clawed back, as some confidence starts to return to the second-largest crypto asset.
Whales Reverse Course After Early-October Capitulation
The first half of October was highlighted by one of Ethereum’s most pronounced periods of capitulation this year. Macroeconomic fears due to US tariffs saw the Bitcoin price undergo a flash crash that dragged many altcoins to the downside. During this move, Ethereum’s price also fell very quickly, dropping from highs around $4,740 on October 7 to as low as $3,680 on October 11.
Interestingly, on-chain data shows that the selling pressure from large holders amplified this move, as the chart from Santiment shows a steep decline in their cumulative holdings from about 24.5 million ETH to roughly 22.6 million ETH. This 1.9 million ETH drop reflected clear risk-off behavior among whales and sharks, who had been net buyers since August.
However, once selling momentum began to fade, accumulation started to return. Institutional inflows started to return into Spot Ethereum ETFs, and whale/shark trades started accumulating Ethereum. Since October 16, the same cohort that contributed to the liquidation has begun adding back to their positions. Santiment noted that these holders are finally showing some signs of confidence, demonstrating an incoming extended recovery phase following the shakeout.
218,470 ETH Added In Last 7 Days
According to Santiment’s data, the collective holdings of addresses with 100 to 10,000 ETH have rebounded to approximately 23.05 million ETH after bottoming out in mid-October. A highlighted annotation on the chart shows that 218,470 ETH were accumulated in just the past week, signaling a tangible shift in on-chain behavior.
This increase represents roughly one-sixth of the coins previously dumped, a sign that major investors are gradually re-entering the market after what appeared to be an exhaustion phase. Similar accumulation trends have often preceded a broader recovery in Ethereum’s price, especially when accompanied by stabilization in the ETH/BTC trading pair.
As it stands, the Ethereum price appears to be building a firmer base for the next phase of its recovery heading into November. When whale wallets accumulate, it reduces the circulating supply available on exchanges and reduces selling pressure.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $3,940 and is on track to break and close above $4,000 again. Both Ethereum and Bitcoin have risen a bit in recent days after inflation report showed US inflation cooling to 3% in September, below the 3.1% forecasted by economists.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Analysts on X outlined five-digit targets for ether while Santiment said larger wallets have started adding again, framing a longer path higher if resistance gives way.
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