They had a lavish press conference in Sacramento this week featuring balloons, baseball caps, politicians and even future Hall of Fame manager Dusty Baker, letting Major League Baseball know they have the money, the land and the passion to be part of their exclusive club.
They have a star-studded staff of advisors in Nashville, an office constantly pumping out press releases, and even though they have no actual ownership, already chosen a team name.
They have already started seeking investors in Vancouver. They have everything set but the shovels in the ground in Salt Lake City.
Everywhere you turn, whether it’s in Charlotte, Portland, Orlando or Montreal, there’s a clamoring to be prepared the moment MLB announces it is ready to expand.
Well, what if everyone is wasting their time?
What if, after all of these years of hype and promises, MLB is not ready to expand in 2031, 2032 or 2033?
What if expansion simply doesn’t happen?
USA TODAY Sports asked a handful of MLB owners and owners and executives for their take on the potential of expansion, speaking on the condition of anonymity due to the ongoing nature of the situation.
“I don’t think it’s going to happen, I really don’t," one longtime MLB executive said.
Said one owner: “Expansion would just be stupid."
Said another owner: “It’s not anything that’s being discussed right now, I know that."
Indeed, expansion has not been addressed in the early collective bargaining agreement talks between MLB and the players union. It’s expected to be tabled until after a CBA agreement is reached.
So, once there’s a new CBA, whenever that is, just why wouldn’t there be expansion?
The players union would love it, with 52 new jobs coming to MLB. The owners would love it, with expansion fees for each team expected to be perhaps $3 billion.
Commissioner Rob Manfred would love it, wanting expansion as part of his legacy, and already on record wanting to add two more teams before he leaves office in January 2029.
“When people want your product," Manfred said last week on the Pat McAfee Show, “I think it’s kind of incumbent on you to try to figure out a way if you can deliver that product to them."
The schedule makers would love it, knowing it’s much easier to comprise a 162-game schedule featuring 32 teams than 30. And the players would love it, with expansion bringing massive realignment, reducing travel and the frequent cross-country flights.
Yet, as several owners and executives say, the biggest problem with expansion is that it doesn’t make sense financially.
“Why would we want to subsidize two more small-market teams?" one executive said. “I don’t understand it. The economics don’t add up."
There’s no need to look further for evidence than the two Florida teams when MLB expanded in 1993 with the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies, and again in 1998 with the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Marlins, who won two World Series titles in their first 10 years, have finished last or next-to-last in National League attendance in all but one year since 1998. The only time they’ve drawn more than 2 million fans since 1997 was when they moved into their new ballpark in 2012.
The Rays, who have won two American League pennants and have been to the postseason nine times since 2008, have finished last or next-to-last in AL attendance 21 years, drawing more than 2 million fans only in their 1998 inaugural season.
So, guess who’s been subsidizing these teams, with MLB executives estimating that the Marlins alone have received about $4.5 billion in revenue sharing from the central fund since their birth into MLB.
How does that investment look to their fellow owners with the Marlins and Rockies paying just $95 million in expansion fees, the Diamondbacks and Rays paying $130 million, with none of the teams among the revenue sharing payees?
So now, with Manfred wanting every team to share their local TV revenue, and new national TV contracts coming in 2029 that MLB estimates could be worth $250 million per team, do owners really want to cut out two more slices of that pie and hand the money over to the new teams?
The two expansion cities will likely be low-revenue teams with small TV markets, but they would be sharing the same national TV revenue pie as the Dodgers, Yankees and the other big boys.
“Those teams certainly won’t be paying money into revenue sharing," one owner said, “so it will be less money for everyone else. What’s the added benefit, to get more fans engaged? I’m not sure expansion will drive fan engagement in either market. So, we’ll see what happens once our labor deal is done.
“But I really don’t understand the logic for expansion, at least not yet."
Around the basepaths
– While MLB owners will gather Tuesday and Wednesday in New York as labor talks have begun, several owners believe that if this becomes a long, drawn-out work stoppage that threatens games in 2027, the X-factor could be sitting in the White House.
“If we miss spring training, I could see Donald Trump getting involved," one owner said. “He could say, 'Gentlemen, enough is enough. I want a deal. And I want it by the end of the week. Or else.'"
– While owners insist there are a number of teams losing money, at least on paper, no one is losing more money each year than Steve Cohen with the New York Mets.
Yet, while the Mets may have annual operating losses in excess of $200 million, guess who’s going to become even a much richer owner?
Yep, Steve Cohen, thanks to an $8 billion casino project that will be built next to Citi Field.
“Cohen never would have gotten the casino if he didn’t have the team," one owner said, “so it really worked out well for him, no matter how much money he loses with the Mets."
– Perhaps the biggest surprise in MLB’s initial proposal to the players union is that teams would equally share their local TV contracts, meaning that the Dodgers, who receive an average of $334 million a year, would be earning the same as the Milwaukee Brewers, who receive about $25 million a year.
Yet, the caveat is that owners will agree to sharing their local TV deals only if there is a salary cap.
– If the players union gets their way with a $3 million minimum for salary-arbitration eligible players, the free-agent market could be flooded with a whole lot of non-tenders. There were 77 of 160 players who settled their arbitration cases last season for less than $3 million.
– If there was a hard salary cap of $245.3 million in MLB, the Dodgers could have a problem on their hands, considering that Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2035), Shohei Ohtani (2033), Mookie Betts (2032) and Blake Snell (2029) are all signed to massive contracts through at least 2029.
The Marlins, on the other hand, could have to go on a massive spending spree if there’s a $171.2 million salary floor. They have only $5 million on their books after this season, and have had a $100 million payroll once during Bruce Sherman’s eight years as owner.
– The Philadelphia Phillies made quite the shrewd move this spring when they tacked on three more years with Cristopher Sanchez’s six-year, $107 million contract extension, leaving the Cy Young candidate under team control through 2033.
Sanchez will attempt to go where only Orel Hershiser and Don Drysdale has gone before with a 44 ⅔-inning scoreless streak, needing to pitch just 2 ⅔ innings shutout innings in his next start this week to move into third place on the all-time scoreless streak. Orel Hershiser has the MLB record with 59 consecutive shutout innings in 1988, with Drysdale at 58 innings in 1968.
– Can you imagine how good the Dodgers would be if they didn’t trade an 18-year-old prospect by the name of Yordan Alvarez to the Houston Astros for reliever Josh Fields in 2016?
Alvarez, scouts and baseball executives will tell you, may be the greatest all-around hitter they’ve seen since Barry Bonds, with his teammates now even calling him Barry. He went into Saturday slashing .301/.415/.641 with a league-leading 1.056 OPS, with 20 homers and 39 RBIs.
“There is a level of intelligence and calm through his at-bats that I have never, ever seen in my career,” Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters.
– It’s amazing the Padres have a winning record, let alone the fourth-best record in the NL. The Padres team headed into the weekend hitting just .218, the lowest batting average by a team this late in a season since the 1968 Baltimore Orioles.
– The Marlins sold 15% stake in the franchise to pay down debt, with the deal valued at $1.55 billion, $300 million more than the original purchase price in 2017.
– The postseason scenario that leaves Fox executives in a cold sweat at night?
A Milwaukee Brewers-Tampa Bay Rays World Series.
It would also be MLB’s worst nightmare in labor talks, proving that small-market teams can be on the ultimate stage without a salary cap.
– The Dodgers already have six reliable starters, even with Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell on the IL, but just in case someone falters, River Ryan is lighting it up at Triple-A Oklahoma City. He is yielding a 2.05 ERA, striking out 29 while walking only three batters in 22 innings.
– Even though Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco won’t have to serve time in prison in the Dominican Republic with a judge in the Dominican Republic finding Franco “criminally responsible’ for abusing a minor, but immigration attorneys believe that he still will never be approved for a visa to play in the United States, preventing the Rays for having to pay the $160 million he’s owed.
– While the Boston Red Sox continue to struggle, their former pitchers had quite the week:
Chicago White Sox rookie David Sandlin giving up a home run to Minnesota Twins leadoff hitter Byron Buxton on the second pitch of his major-league debut, only to then retire 18 consecutive batters, becoming the first White Sox pitcher to achieve the feat since at least 1900 in his first career start.
Kyle Harrison pitched six shutout innings for the Milwaukee Brewers against St. Louis, lowering his ERA to 1.57.
And Atlanta’s Chris Sale beat the Red Sox at Fenway Park to go 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA.
– Dodgers starter Blake Snell, who was placed on the 60-day IL this past week, has pitched only 64½ regular season innings since signing his five-year, $182 million contract before the 2025 season.
– New York Mets broadcaster Ron Darling called out today’s MLB coaches knowing that many are afraid to criticize players for fear of losing their jobs.
“I don’t understand it,” Darling said after Mets pitcher David Peterson failed to back up a play. “It really tells me that coaches don’t have as much influence on the players as they think they have, because someone should rip someone at some point, but they don’t, because they don’t want to upset anyone."
– Twenty years ago, there wasn’t a single team hitting below .250.
In 2016, there were nine teams hitting below .250.
Today, there are a whopping 26 teams.
– Oh, where have the complete games gone?
Fifty years ago in 1976, starting pitchers threw complete games 28.3% of the time, according to Codify Baseball.
- 1986: 14.9%
- 1996: 7%
- 2006: 3.1%
- 2016: 1.8%
- This year: 0.4%
– Kansas City Chiefs all-pro tight end Travis Kelce is the latest star athlete from a different sport to become a minority owner in MLB, purchasing a piece of the Cleveland Guardians.
Chiefs teammate Patrick Mahomes owns part of the Kansas City Chiefs.
NBA Hall of Famer Magic Johnson has a minority stake in the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Future NBA Hall of Famer LeBron James had a stake in the Boston Red Sox through his investment in Fenway Sports Group.
Milwaukee Bucks starter Giannis Antetokounmpo is part of the Milwaukee Brewers’ ownership team.
– Oh, what a difference just two years can make.
The Chicago White won their 30th game of the season Friday evening on Miguel Vargas’ walk-off homer against the Detroit Tigers.
They didn’t win their 30th game in 2024 until Aug. 16, when they were 30-93, and outscored by 251 runs on their way to baseball futility.
–The Rays made one of the greatest acquisitions of the offseason when they signed veteran pitcher Nick Martinez to a one-year, $13 million contract.
You may soon see him on the national stage pitching in his All-Star Game.
Martinez, 35, is 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA, becoming the oldest pitcher to yield two or fewer runs in his first 11 starts in a season in modern baseball history.
– The Detroit Tigers have had their share of rough seasons, but this one may be the most disappointing in their recent franchise history.
They went into the season as a serious World Series contender.
They enter June as one of the worst teams in baseball, completely falling apart after Tarik Skubal’s elbow surgery, going 4-19 entering Saturday. They are 22-36, with only the Colorado Rockies having a worse record.
They have yet to back-to-back games since Skubal went down.
– The Phillies’ right-handed hitters are a mess, hitting a major-league low .217 with a .315 on-base percentage and .585 OPS.
They will be on the lookout for a right-handed hitter at the trade deadline, but no, Mike Trout will not be coming to Philadelphia. He still is owed $148.46 million after this season, and has a full no-trade clause.
– The Athletics pitching staff has to keep reminding itself that they have only 1 ½ seasons left at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
Their staff is yielding a 5.45 ERA at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park this year compared to a 3.39 ERA on the road.
The A’s, who are 10-16 at home entering Saturday, have been outscored by a staggering 52 runs.
They are 17-14 on the road where they have outscored their opponents by 21 runs.
– Future Hall of Famer Mookie Betts is the latest player to delete his social media accounts with ugly comments from fans berating him for his early-season struggles, ignoring the fact he has helped the Dodgers win three World Series titles since his arrival.
“There’s so much hate out there,’’ Betts told Katie Woo of The Athletic. “It’s kind of unbelievable. …It’s like, how can you go cheer and then go and be so negative to somebody. But that’s the world today, and it just sucks sometimes. It’s not like I’m out here trying to sabotage the team.’’
Follow Bob Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB expansion plans may not come to fruition as owners bash expansion
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